Taylor Bassett

By Taylor Bassett - Staff Writer | @bassett_taylor | MadAboutPolitics.com

Ukraine is part of the former USSR and is bordered to its east by Russia. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has inserted itself into Ukrainian politics in order to maintain control in the country, while many Ukrainians have sought to cut ties with Russia and align with western ideals. For example, in 2014 Ukraine revolted against its pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, after he sided with Vladimir Putin and defied a vote to join the European Union. In addition to maintaining political control, Russia has engaged in military efforts to physically control portions of Ukraine, particularly in the east. One example of this was Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Ukraine is in an ongoing military conflict with Russia as we speak.

Official US foreign policy toward Ukraine has been clear – we support Ukraine and oppose Russian aggression in that region. We have taken specific bipartisan actions designed to deter Russian political and military aggression. This includes imposition of sanctions against Russia (over the annexation of Crimea, for example), as well as providing Ukraine with hundreds of millions of dollars in military aid, which includes training, equipment, and weapons, including javelin missiles capable of destroying Russian tanks.

The impeachment investigation centers on the theory that the Trump administration was withholding aid to Ukraine in order to use it as leverage against Ukraine’s newly elected president Volodymyr Zelensky. The theory suggests that Trump saw Zelensky’s election victory as an opportunity to get two things he wanted from Ukraine, both pertaining to his odds to win the 2020 election: first, Trump believed he could use Zelensky to damage Joe Biden by announcing an investigation into his son’s company, Burisma. Second, Trump thought Zelensky might help him publicize conspiracy theories that would potentially implicate Ukraine, as opposed to Russia, in the 2016 election interference campaign, which would discredit the Mueller investigation (notably, Mueller had testified on July 24, the day prior to Trump’s well-known call with Zelensky).

The facts we’ve learned so far – some direct, and some circumstantial – tend to support the theory that Trump leveraged and withheld military aid in exchange for personal political benefit. Some of the inculpatory facts include:

• The Trump administration cannot provide a legitimate explanation as to why the aid was withheld;
• No one in the OMB or NSC knows why the aid was being withheld;
• The Trump administration had set up an “irregular” foreign policy apparatus through Rudy Giuliani designed to conceal Giuliani's influence campaign;
• US officials in the “regular” foreign policy channel to Ukraine did not understand why aid was being withheld;
• No one is able to provide an alternative explanation for what Giuliani was doing in Ukraine in recent months;
• Numerous non-partisan witnesses, including diplomats involved with Ukraine policy, ultimately came to understand (after being kept out of the “irregular” loop) that aid was being withheld as part of a potential quid pro quo for investigations;
• Certain people within the “irregular” channel, including Ambassador Sondland, have admitted under oath that military aid was conditioned on Zelensky publicly announcing an investigation;
• Mulvaney admitted to a quid pro quo on TV;
• The transcript of the Zelensky call, in the context of prior communications with Ukraine via our “irregular” back-channel, indicates that Zelensky must have understood that the reason aid was being withheld was because he had not yet publicly announced these investigations;
• The Trump administration has gone to great lengths to prevent those with knowledge from testifying;
• The Trump administration hid the transcript of the call on a private server until it became obvious that the public, after learning of the concealed whistleblower complaint, would demand its release; and
• The Trump administration has offered practically zero exculpatory evidence.

The...