The trade and economy mega-thread (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[Nebaghead]

he just sealed his re-election fate imo.

That is if it doesn't recover. I think there is an over reaction and it will probably ease back up to 25k points when things settle. If it dips below 20 and hovers around there, then all bets are off. He will get pummeled like Jimmy Carter did in 1980.

 

[The moose]

That is if it doesn't recover. I think there is an over reaction and it will probably ease back up to 25k points when things settle. If it dips below 20 and hovers around there, then all bets are off. He will get pummeled like Jimmy Carter did in 1980.

Nah Jimmy got pummeled because of the hostages. The republicans worked out a deal to not let them loose till after the election.

Carter really had nothing to do with the staggering inflation or that fat dumb American companies could not figure out how to make solid economy cars.

You know I said plenty of times that this should be it last go a round to know that a huge portion of our population are idiots. And one thing I figured out in life is idiot proof doesn't exist.

 

[Nebaghead]

Nah Jimmy got pummeled because of the hostages. The republicans worked out a deal to not let them loose till after the election.

Carter really had nothing to do with the staggering inflation or that fat dumb American companies could not figure out how to make solid economy cars.

You know I said plenty of times that this should be it last go a round to know that a huge portion of our population are idiots. And one thing I figured out in life is idiot proof doesn't exist.

Corona Virus is out of his control and he is handling it improperly. If this doesn't fade away relatively quickly and has long lasting economical impact till the end of the year, he will lose like Jimmy Carter did. Not comparing situations as much but just how bad of a beating it will be. Texas, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania will all go blue and probably Missouri and Iowa. He will just win the ultra red states.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

Nah Jimmy got pummeled because of the hostages. The republicans worked out a deal to not let them loose till after the election.

Carter really had nothing to do with the staggering inflation or that fat dumb American companies could not figure out how to make solid economy cars.

You know I said plenty of times that this should be it last go a round to know that a huge portion of our population are idiots. And one thing I figured out in life is idiot proof doesn't exist.

Pretty sure he was just saying ‘beat in a similar fashion to how carter was beat after one term’

I’ve had some reckoning with Carter - I’m willing to place more blame at his feet than I used to
Carter, and to an extent Obama, never really figured out how to be a good person AND effective politician
I really wish we were more mature as a voting public and something like Carter’s malaise speech would have been taken to heart - instead the lesson learned is that when ****’s bad, Americans can’t handle the truth
- I really can’t think of a troubling time when leaders talked straight - especially if they needed us to change behavior in some way

 

[SaintForLife]

he just sealed his re-election fate imo.

Nah. He should be fine. We've been told it's Obama's economy.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Nah. He should be fine. We've been told it's Obama's economy.

I believe you were told that Trump's numbers were the same as Obama's numbers, but with more debt.

 

[Infoman]

Preface - Screw the Orange guy... and also screw the Socialist cry babies...

Now that we got that outta the way....

This economic drubbing we are taking right now has very little to do with politics.... and everything to do with how much the US consumer and US companies (private sector/consumers) have come to rely on cheaply imported and manufactured "junk" from China and other countries that produce "goods" using semi-slave labor. And now that they are shutting down production/export in those countries because of the virus... this is what we get.

There are those of us that have been saying for years that the mass outsourcing of manufacturing, mass importing critical commodities, and general move away from made in the USA would eventually leave us vulnerable and at the mercy of foreign entities... and this is how.

And I am not saying I don't understand why it was done in the first place (profit)... but this is just a taste. If all (or a large portion) imports from the far east stop... the US economy is in deep you know what.

We have become too dependent... we need to become far far far less dependent.... and fast... but it may already be too late. I hope we don't find out, and this becomes a lesson to learn from, rather than a complete economic meltdown.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Preface - Screw the Orange guy... and also screw the Socialist cry babies...

Now that we got that outta the way....

This economic drubbing we are taking right now has very little to do with politics.... and everything to do with how much the US consumer and US companies (private sector/consumers) have come to rely on cheaply imported and manufactured "junk" from China and other countries that produce "goods" using semi-slave labor. And now that they are shutting down production/export in those countries because of the virus... this is what we get.

There are those of us that have been saying for years that the mass outsourcing of manufacturing, mass importing critical commodities, and general move away from made in the USA would eventually leave us vulnerable and at the mercy of foreign entities... and this is how.

And I am not saying I don't understand why it was done in the first place (profit)... but this is just a taste. If all (or a large portion) imports from the far east stop... the US economy is in deep you know what.

We have become too dependent... we need to become far far far less dependent.... and fast... but it may already be too late. I hope we don't find out, and this becomes a lesson to learn from, rather than a complete economic meltdown.

I think that's part of it, but obviously, if we have major illnesses here, it won't matter if we have everything made here b/c we'll be too sick to make it as well

I think this does show that we should have a diversified supply chain -- but I don't think that means everything made here. One of the benefits of Trump's trade war was that companies did start creating other supply chain routes -- but of course if every country gets shut down then not much we can do about it.

 

[Infoman]

Understood... point taken.... I am talking about having too many economic "eggs in one basket".... and the having country holding most of our economic eggs generally hating us.... and any large scale stoppage in that supply chain / export / manufacturing (for any reason, not just a virus)... can potentially kill our economy (not theoretical) ...

I'm not saying everything needs to be made in Merica! That's just as silly. I think a lot more does so we have some semblance of control on our own economy... That said...

The near complete dependence needs to end, and/or greatly diversity at a minimum no matter the cost.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Understood... point taken.... I am talking about having too many economic "eggs in one basket".... and the having country holding most of our economic eggs generally hating us.... and any large scale stoppage in that supply chain / export / manufacturing (for any reason, not just a virus)... can potentially kill our economy (not theoretical) ...

I'm not saying everything needs to be made in Merica! That's just as silly. I think a lot more does so we have some semblance of control on our own economy... That said...

The near complete dependence needs to end, and/or greatly diversity at a minimum no matter the cost.

I agree, but as always the devil is in the details. How do you encourage supply chain diversification? You'd obviously have to do some sort of market intervention, and what is the most efficient way to do that?

 

[dtc]

Preface - Screw the Orange guy... and also screw the Socialist cry babies...

Now that we got that outta the way....

This economic drubbing we are taking right now has very little to do with politics.... and everything to do with how much the US consumer and US companies (private sector/consumers) have come to rely on cheaply imported and manufactured "junk" from China and other countries that produce "goods" using semi-slave labor. And now that they are shutting down production/export in those countries because of the virus... this is what we get.

There are those of us that have been saying for years that the mass outsourcing of manufacturing, mass importing critical commodities, and general move away from made in the USA would eventually leave us vulnerable and at the mercy of foreign entities... and this is how.

And I am not saying I don't understand why it was done in the first place (profit)... but this is just a taste. If all (or a large portion) imports from the far east stop... the US economy is in deep you know what.

We have become too dependent... we need to become far far far less dependent.... and fast... but it may already be too late. I hope we don't find out, and this becomes a lesson to learn from, rather than a complete economic meltdown.

It's never too late and while I would argue that you are overreacting I would also wholeheartedly encourage us to follow the suggestions you're making. First among them, must be that we - as a society - have to come to terms with the fact that moral decisions are not made by capitalist markets.

We have to stop being led around by the interests of profit to the exclusion of anything else. From schools and bridges to imported medicine and food, we are too dependent on the rest of the world. More importantly, we are dependent for fuel and technology and not just on foreign nations, but on profitable capitalist interests such as big oil and big pharma.

My college roommate who is now head of surgery at a big NJ hospital told me Tuesday that the biggest problem we face with this virus and medicine in general is that providers don't make any money preparing to cure epidemics. We don't have excess hospital beds or ventilators because we only buy what we need in order to maximize return on investment. We don't stockpile drugs or even produce them if they can't be a high margin sale.

And that, my fellow Americans, is why our capitalist nation has socialist programs and why we always should. And if the current situation doesn't prove we need universal healthcare it sure will in a month or two if this continues because we currently have a zillion uninsured people who "couldn't afford to pay the fine" who are now going to need 2 weeks in the ICU hooked to a ventilator they can't pay for as the rest of us watch our rates go up so we can have physical therapy for our strained ankles instead of care for those with Coronavirus.

 

[CoolBrees]

Allow me to interject my opinion. We talk about the idea of bringing manufacturing home. But that would require steps and measures that those that are most vocal would never accept.

We would have to subsidize industry and regionally price fix commodities and raw goods. The cost of real estate, construction/renovation, tooling/re-tooling and fully staffing a factory to make and widget in this country make it impossible to secure financing.

The government would have to provide low interest or interest free loans to business owners through a central bank and subsidize smelters or other raw good manufacturers.

In other words, socialism.

Capitalism doesn’t encourage competition. It encourages industry cannibalism, and welcomes cheap alternatives with open arms.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

And board rooms/big ticket share holders - those seem to be as big a problem as any

 

[JimEverett]

Allow me to interject my opinion. We talk about the idea of bringing manufacturing home. But that would require steps and measures that those that are most vocal would never accept.

We would have to subsidize industry and regionally price fix commodities and raw goods. The cost of real estate, construction/renovation, tooling/re-tooling and fully staffing a factory to make and widget in this country make it impossible to secure financing.

The government would have to provide low interest or interest free loans to business owners through a central bank and subsidize smelters or other raw good manufacturers.

In other words, socialism.

Capitalism doesn’t encourage competition. It encourages industry cannibalism, and welcomes cheap alternatives with open arms.

I don't understand how you say capitalism does not encourage competition. The amount of "stuff" the average American consumes today far outstrips what we were consuming just a generation ago. And presumably, (at least for middle class earners) we are consuming all of that with roughly the same income. Is that not the result of competition?

If anything, the problems people are complaining are the results of favoring consumption, and by extension - the consumer - above all else.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

I don't understand how you say capitalism does not encourage competition. The amount of "stuff" the average American consumes today far outstrips what we were consuming just a generation ago. And presumably, (at least for middle class earners) we are consuming all of that with roughly the same income. Is that not the result of competition?

If anything, the problems people are complaining are the results of favoring consumption, and by extension - the consumer - above all else.

I assume he’s talking about the mega corporation aquire/merge ‘capitalism’ we have now- where the choices for consumers are much more proscribed by a very few entities than anything the could be described as actual choice

 

[The moose]

What you guys are missing in all of this is really simple and scary as heck.

Was it just me that notices that the bond market and the stock market are weak as fuge?

That don't happen like ever. One goes up the other goes down.

Want another scary one. Gold is not going up either.

What that says to me is the major financial players are having a cash crunch if bonds, stocks, and gold are going down.

 

[dtc]

What you guys are missing in all of this is really simple and scary as heck.

Was it just me that notices that the bond market and the stock market are weak as fuge?

That don't happen like ever. One goes up the other goes down.

Want another scary one. Gold is not going up either.

What that says to me is the major financial players are having a cash crunch if bonds, stocks, and gold are going down.

That's not what's happening. And, right on political que, the FED is about to dump 1.5T into the economy.

There's a ton of cash sitting on the sidelines.

 

[The moose]

That's not what's happening. And, right on political que, the FED is about to dump 1.5T into the economy.

There's a ton of cash sitting on the sidelines.

Bingo into the bond market that should not need help with a weak stock market