The trade and economy mega-thread (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[BobE]

Can we at least agree that we are all terrible?

:hellyesgif:

 

[Beach Friends]

Can we at least agree that we are all terrible?

Lol, absolutely. I didn't think you knew. Now that I know you are self aware I can quit telling you.

 

[superchuck500]

It's interesting to see this being admitted by the administration. This is a horse I was beating over on the PDB, but I think the biggest fallacy of Trump's economic plan was that it failed (effectively squandered) one of the largest tax cuts in history. The package was designed to achieve substantial GDP growth by giving companies a large in-flux in cash (tax savings) and some policy/treatment changes to encourage growth (e.g. accelerated depreciation, repatriation, etc.). And getting it done required massive deficit spending.

The argument, however, was that the hit to the deficit will be softened (even eliminated) by the resulting growth. Okay, maybe that premise is fair in theory - but then the very same administration launched a trade war that clouded the ability to project markets and future revenue for just about every board room in the country.

For companies to engage in growth spending, they need two things: (1) capital and (2) optimism that their spending will yield a multiple of growth for the company. The trade war so substantially impaired that second prong that many companies decided to other things with their tax surplus . . . often in the form of buy-backs and dividends, that enrich shareholders but do not yield growth.

So Trump and the GOP asked the American public to commit a trillion dollars in debt spending to this plan on the idea that it would be worth it. I think most economic analysis both now and in the future will demonstrate that the bargain probably wasn't worth it - the GDP growth following the tax cut and policy package was meaningful, but only marginally effective as to the stated goal. And the single biggest, most obvious reason for that was the administration's pivot to an aggressive, confrontational posture on trade - that made many companies gun shy on spending their tax savings. So instead of the bargain the plan promised in the form of >5% GDP growth, we got what can be argued was treated by many companies as a transfer of wealth from the federal government balance sheet directly to corporate shareholders (in a nation where 56% of all corporate shares are owned by the top 1% of wealth, and another 32% are owned by the next 9%).

 

[dtc]

It's the blind and dumb bull on crack in the China shop approach.

It usually ends up with an insurance claim and a bunch of broken stuff.

 

[MT15]

I was also just sickened by his stupidity on the trade wars. He used a sort of nuclear option to goose the economy and then peed it away with his idiotic trade policies.

 

[The moose]

Well this OPEC oil trade war is gonna cost plenty of jobs here.

A quick 20 percent drop is not expected to be it. They expect oil to get into the 20s a barrel range.

Stocks, oil plunge over global fight for crude production

BEIJING (AP) — Global stock markets and oil prices plunged Monday after a fight among major crude-producing nations jolted investors who already were on edge about the surging costs of a virus outbreak.

apnews.com

That will kill all the shale production in the US won't be cost-effective.

I thought both Russia and Saudi Arabia were Trump's pals. This is gonna kill jobs quickly.

 

[MT15]

The only person who thinks Putin is his friend is Trump himself. Nobody else is fooled.

 

[brandon]

History lesson: What happened the last time the Dow fell this much

Here's what investors are paying attention to.

www.cnn.com

Today was historically bad.

 

[SystemShock]

History lesson: What happened the last time the Dow fell this much

Here's what investors are paying attention to.

www.cnn.com

Today was historically bad.

Tell me about it...

 

[zztop]

Trickle down never works. After those cushy tax breaks, you saw a lot of them using the extra $$ to just buy back stock. You also have a company, like at&t, that has apparently fired 37,000 US workers since those tax breaks took place.

 

[Saintamaniac]

Let the Bailout for the Oil industry talk begin. More welfare for oil companies to save trump's rich friends and keep him in the Whitehouse.

Trump May Bail Out His Billionaire Oil-Industry Pals, the True Coronavirus Victims

The president is also pushing for a payroll tax cut that conveniently lasts through the election, because he’s the least subtle person on earth.

www.vanityfair.com

 

[bdb13]

Let the Bailout for the Oil industry talk begin. More welfare for oil companies to save trump's rich friends and keep him in the Whitehouse.

Trump May Bail Out His Billionaire Oil-Industry Pals, the True Coronavirus Victims

The president is also pushing for a payroll tax cut that conveniently lasts through the election, because he’s the least subtle person on earth.

www.vanityfair.com

Didn't the Tea Party rise up after the stimulus package passed under Obama? Think they'd rise up again over this? Yeah, I doubt it too.

 

[CoolBrees]

Tarrifs not paying off for heavy equipment manufacturing.

U.S. heavy equipment makers, hurt by tariffs, vow to make them top election theme

America’s heavy equipment makers aim to make tariffs an election year issue after losing market share to imports of foreign goods as a result of the levies on inputs imposed by the Trump administration.

www.reuters.com

 

[The moose]

Well my 401 took a dump but the silver lining is I paid 1.68 a gallon in the parish today.

I can't remember the last time it was that cheap.

 

[wardorican]

Remember when folks were using the argument about how their 401ks were doing? Yeah.. good times...

 

[samiam5211]

Stock market is approaching where it was on inauguration day...

 

[The moose]

Stock market is approaching where it was on inauguration day...

Oooof

Today is not looking good. That dude should just keep his mouth shut. The more he opens it the more it goes down.

Here is a great article I read about where the market started for both Obama and trump.

Trump’s Stock Market Returns Fall Behind Obama’s As The Dow Enters Bear Territory

The Dow 30 Industrials has “officially” become a Bear market since it has declined over 20% from its recent high. These four charts compare the returns of the Dow and the S&P 500 over the first three plus years since he was elected or inaugurated vs. President Obama over the same timeframes.

www.forbes.com

 

[efil4]

Oooof

Today is not looking good. That dude should just keep his mouth shut. The more he opens it the more it goes down.

Here is a great article I read about where the market started for both Obama and trump.

Trump’s Stock Market Returns Fall Behind Obama’s As The Dow Enters Bear Territory

The Dow 30 Industrials has “officially” become a Bear market since it has declined over 20% from its recent high. These four charts compare the returns of the Dow and the S&P 500 over the first three plus years since he was elected or inaugurated vs. President Obama over the same timeframes.

www.forbes.com

he just sealed his re-election fate imo.