The trade and economy mega-thread (1 Viewer)

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superchuck500

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Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.


 

SystemShock

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It was harmful. See subsidies that will never be repaid, economy that actually slowed down (as some economists have pointed out), deficit.

It was ill-conceived. Trump thought he could bully Xi like he bullies the people who are still dumb enough to do business with him, and then stiffs.
 

wardorican

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This whole thing had played out like a TV soap. Every couple days it is good news, bad news.

The reality is simple. Trump isn't honest enough when he discusses the trade deal to read the tea leaves well. The market needs to learn to ignore him.

Not that I trust China either.

This whole situation just really takes the joy out of the stock market and general economy lately.
 

efil4

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This whole thing had played out like a TV soap. Every couple days it is good news, bad news.

The reality is simple. Trump isn't honest enough when he discusses the trade deal to read the tea leaves well. The market needs to learn to ignore him.

Not that I trust China either.

This whole situation just really takes the joy out of the stock market and general economy lately.
the market will never ignore trade polices set forth by POTUS.

It cant.
 

The moose

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the market will never ignore trade polices set forth by POTUS.

It cant.
I do understand that but the massive swings due to the potential deal that we might not see for months is a bit foolish
 

CajuninVA

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I do understand that but the massive swings due to the potential deal that we might not see for months is a bit foolish
The suspicious part of me has wondered if certain unscrupulous people in the government are using the timing of the releases to make big dollars off of the ebb and flow of the stock market responding to these announcements
 

MT15

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I have wondered the same thing, tbh. It would just about have to be someone who knows in advance when the Tweets are coming though and what they will say. 🤷🏼‍♀️
 

Ayo

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The suspicious part of me has wondered if certain unscrupulous people in the government are using the timing of the releases to make big dollars off of the ebb and flow of the stock market responding to these announcements
the fluctuations are pretty wild. It's almost like leaking the release of these statements to certain stakeholders ahead of Trump's statement would be akin to insider trading. The swings can be that big.
 

The moose

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The suspicious part of me has wondered if certain unscrupulous people in the government are using the timing of the releases to make big dollars off of the ebb and flow of the stock market responding to these announcements

What it sounds like you think this whole president thing is a money grab?

If you had an hour before he hit send you could make a killing
 
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superchuck500

superchuck500

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Trump has signed the US statement of support for Hong Kong - China retaliates, but leaves trade off the response.




Meanwhile, Trump announced tariffs for Brazil and Argentina this morning.

 

wardorican

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Another day in the, "what all is going on in trade" from the business man. He loves picking fights (and I agree with most of them), but never seems to have an endgame or strategy.
 

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Four quarters of contraction in a row isn’t a good thing.

If corps would have done what the tax cuts were for (retooling and upgrades to existing facilities and new facilities) we could be in the middle of a second industrial revolution. Instead they bought back stock at reduced prices.
 

The moose

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Four quarters of contraction in a row isn’t a good thing.

If corps would have done what the tax cuts were for (retooling and upgrades to existing facilities and new facilities) we could be in the middle of a second industrial revolution. Instead they bought back stock at reduced prices.

Well I hate to tell ya that is what we all knew was gonna happen. Even the CEOs said that was what was gonna happen.

So we just inflate the stock market and the rich got richer.

The worst part about it is the American stock market is not owned solely Americans money. It is though that over 20% of the investment in the stock market is overseas money.

Let's think about that we got a trillion more in debt yet one fifth of the profits belong to people from other countries.
 
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superchuck500

superchuck500

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Four quarters of contraction in a row isn’t a good thing.

If corps would have done what the tax cuts were for (retooling and upgrades to existing facilities and new facilities) we could be in the middle of a second industrial revolution. Instead they bought back stock at reduced prices.
That’s clearly true - but I think a lot of that had to do with board-room hesitancy to expand when facing a trade war.
 

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I look at the trade war and the timing, plus the multiple fronts, as the stupid squandering of any possible good that could have come from his crazy corporate tax cuts.

Just such a total waste.
 
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Nebaghead

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Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.


Now Trump says it won't be a good idea to have a trade deal till after the election. A little over a month ago we were told by Trump they have a deal, its beautiful and aggriculture trade would be increased to 50 billion. Now it will wait till after the election. Just like everything he says, it's utter and total bull.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-have-to-wait-for-2020-election-idUSKBN1Y7134
 

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