The trade and economy mega-thread (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[FullMonte]

Here's what I would have love to have seen happen.

--Democrats in the House take the version of the USMCA that was sent to them, and heads behind closed doors. They come back a few days later, and put it to a vote of the House, without letting any of the members read it. The democrat majority passes the new USMCA deal, and sends it to the president.
--The president gets it, and explains to everyone that the do nothing democrats have tried to undercut him by proposing this horrible, ineffective deal that is almost exactly the same as the original NAFTA deal that was also horrible and ineffective.
--Democrats post their new bill online, side by side with Trump's original USMCA deal, showing that it is the exact same deal that Trump proposed.

 

[Dadsdream]

Just a whiff of hope of a trade deal with China sends the market soaring . . . again.

Stocks close at fresh records on trade deal optimism

U.S. stocks surge to new records Thursday propelled by reports the U.S. and China had reached at trade deal to avoid new tariffs due on Sunday, and roll back...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[efil4]

Just a whiff of hope of a trade deal with China sends the market soaring . . . again.

Stocks close at fresh records on trade deal optimism

U.S. stocks surge to new records Thursday propelled by reports the U.S. and China had reached at trade deal to avoid new tariffs due on Sunday, and roll back...

www.marketwatch.com

He has "signaled" a deal 3 times now in 4 months.

someone is getting more wealthy.

 

[CoolBrees]

U.S. producer prices tepid; jobless claims at more than two-year high

U.S. producer prices were unexpectedly unchanged in November as increases in food and gasoline prices were offset by declining costs for services, pointing to muted inflation despite a recent uptick in consumer prices.

www.reuters.com

jobless claims at a two year high

 

[samiam5211]

Does anyone know how side gig apps count in the employment numbers?

Does someone who makes 400 a month driving Uber count as employed?

 

[JimEverett]

U.S. producer prices tepid; jobless claims at more than two-year high

U.S. producer prices were unexpectedly unchanged in November as increases in food and gasoline prices were offset by declining costs for services, pointing to muted inflation despite a recent uptick in consumer prices.

www.reuters.com

jobless claims at a two year high

Someone who knows more than me can maybe set me straight - but the fact that inflation is not increasing means no rate hikes and which means those hoping for a recession before the election look like they are not going to get it.

 

[dtc]

Someone who knows more than me can maybe set me straight - but the fact that inflation is not increasing means no rate hikes and which means those hoping for a recession before the election look like they are not going to get it.

It means we are drifting back towards a tepid stagnation. Perhaps with some wage gains we'll be lucky enough to maintain 2% growth while the billionaires revel at their market gains and the rest of us figure out how the country keeps going further and further in debt while the POTUS claims we're in the midst of the greatest and yoooogest growth of all time without crediting Obama one bit.

 

[MT15]

Someone who knows more than me can maybe set me straight - but the fact that inflation is not increasing means no rate hikes and which means those hoping for a recession before the election look like they are not going to get it.

Nobody is hoping for a recession. Why so hostile?

 

[JimEverett]

It means we are drifting back towards a tepid stagnation. Perhaps with some wage gains we'll be lucky enough to maintain 2% growth while the billionaires revel at their market gains and the rest of us figure out how the country keeps going further and further in debt while the POTUS claims we're in the midst of the greatest and yoooogest growth of all time without crediting Obama one bit.

LOL - you got all that from the report that there was little inflationary pressure and that this is is one of the strongest labor markets of the last 50 years?

On another note - an interesting quote in the article: "There is still no sign that U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports are boosting inflation. Economists say importers and businesses were probably absorbing the duties to keep market share. "
Remember the "controversy" of people claiming Trump had no idea who paid tariffs - so far it is interesting to see who is right and who is wrong.

 

[MT15]

You think the Chinese are paying?

 

[JimEverett]

You think the Chinese are paying?

Yes, I think they are largely paying for them via currenct depreciation. Since Trump announced stell tariffs the yuan has declined a whopping 10%+.

But I don't think that is necessarily positive news for helping U.S. producers or that it means Trump is "winning."
More of it just another example of people trying to paint Trump as an idiot and they come off looking like one.

More a

 

[dtc]

LOL - you got all that from the report that there was little inflationary pressure and that this is is one of the strongest labor markets of the last 50 years?

On another note - an interesting quote in the article: "There is still no sign that U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports are boosting inflation. Economists say importers and businesses were probably absorbing the duties to keep market share. "
Remember the "controversy" of people claiming Trump had no idea who paid tariffs - so far it is interesting to see who is right and who is wrong.

Trump said China was paying and that's simply not true. Even your snarky post hints at the truth which is corporations are paying by decreased margins.

And, what I said above is completely accurate. We have full employment malaise. The middle and working classes are flat broke, making no more now than they were 30 years ago. Corporations and big money folks are doing pretty well with the recent tax cuts, but we are not seeing the 5% plus growth Trump promised and, you're fully welcome to go back through the old archives to verify I said it wouldn't happen. It can't. Until and unless we change our ways we aren't going to see it under D or R, but that's not even the point.

Our economy has been juiced along for years with free money and low growth. We paved our way out of the great recession with debt and we've been riding the same train since Reagan. It may not have resulted in a crash, but it has resulted in a debt burdened malaise with a rigged system which benefits only the super wealthy who buy and sell policies which favor them with campaign contributions and promises of future earnings.

For years I've been torn between the simplistic arguments for term limits, but at this point I damn near leapt when I heard Cruz had sponsored term limit legislation. I bet our old econ professor, Dr. Lee, would slap himself with glee to have heard it.

 

[MT15]

Yes, I think they are largely paying for them via currenct depreciation. Since Trump announced stell tariffs the yuan has declined a whopping 10%+.

But I don't think that is necessarily positive news for helping U.S. producers or that it means Trump is "winning."
More of it just another example of people trying to paint Trump as an idiot and they come off looking like one.

More a

I don’t think you’re being entirely correct, or you are at least ignoring that the US importers of Chinese goods are paying the tariffs directly, and the decline in Chinese currency may be related, or may not. It‘s certainly not as direct a payment as the money that US companies are out.

More importantly, are you okay?

 

[samiam5211]

I don’t think you’re being entirely correct, or you are at least ignoring that the US importers of Chinese goods are paying the tariffs directly, and the decline in Chinese currency may be related, or may not. It‘s certainly not as direct a payment as the money that US companies are out.

More importantly, are you okay?

I’m no economist, but I’d imagine that the US companies are paying their Chinese suppliers in dollars who are then paying their employees and suppliers in their own currency. So a few Chinese people are probably making more money than ever.

The working class on both sides of the pacific are bearing the brunt of this trade war together.

 

[dtc]

I’m no economist, but I’d imagine that the US companies are paying their Chinese suppliers in dollars who are then paying their employees and suppliers in their own currency. So a few Chinese people are probably making more money than ever.

The working class on both sides of the pacific are bearing the brunt of this trade war together.

The prices of pre-finished maple plywood which is used as cabinet box material and all metals have gone up drastically. It's cost me thousands of dollars because we had fixed cost contracts on work based on estimates suppliers couldn't stand behind months or even a year or so later. So, it's cost me money. It's cost my clients money and it's also cost the cabinet makers and metal fabricators and others a ton trying to stick to quotes they gave prior to Trump's idiotic tariff war.

 

[samiam5211]

The prices of pre-finished maple plywood which is used as cabinet box material and all metals have gone up drastically. It's cost me thousands of dollars because we had fixed cost contracts on work based on estimates suppliers couldn't stand behind months or even a year or so later. So, it's cost me money. It's cost my clients money and it's also cost the cabinet makers and metal fabricators and others a ton trying to stick to quotes they gave prior to Trump's idiotic tariff war.

And I assume you’re paying in dollars.

So not only are you having to pay more US dollars, each of those dollars are worth more in China thanks to their currency devaluation.

The real pay of the the Chinese worker and US importer and eventually consumer go down, the income of the Trump government and top .1% of Chinese go up. The Trump government refunds trillions to the top .1% in the US.

The elite are stealing from the poor and blaming nationality, a construct they are not bound by, to pit their victims against each other.

 

[V Chip]

Every time Digre imports components from China, he gets a bill from U.S. Customs and Border Protection saying how much he owes in tariffs.

"A surprising number of people that I talk to — you know, smart, intelligent, well-read people — think that somehow China is paying the tariffs," Digre says.

NPR - His Company Makes Speakers. Now He's Speaking Out, Opposing Tariffs

 

[efil4]

Someone who knows more than me can maybe set me straight - but the fact that inflation is not increasing means no rate hikes and which means those hoping for a recession before the election look like they are not going to get it.

Asks to be set straight by someone who know more.

It means we are drifting back towards a tepid stagnation. Perhaps with some wage gains we'll be lucky enough to maintain 2% growth while the billionaires revel at their market gains and the rest of us figure out how the country keeps going further and further in debt while the POTUS claims we're in the midst of the greatest and yoooogest growth of all time without crediting Obama one bit.

Gets set straight

LOL - you got all that from the report that there was little inflationary pressure and that this is is one of the strongest labor markets of the last 50 years?

On another note - an interesting quote in the article: "There is still no sign that U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports are boosting inflation. Economists say importers and businesses were probably absorbing the duties to keep market share. "
Remember the "controversy" of people claiming Trump had no idea who paid tariffs - so far it is interesting to see who is right and who is wrong.

then laughs as if the information provided by someone who knows way more than him about Economics, was incorrect somehow.


Why ask to be set straight then? you are wasting everyones time.

Oh and as to the "controversy" ...from Aug 2019

Trump Still Doesn't Know Who Pays Tariffs

He refuses to accept the fact that China doesn't pay his tariffs -- Americans do.

www.forbes.com