The trade and economy mega-thread (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[zztop]

another bump

Fed orders another super-sized interest rate hike as it battles stubborn inflation

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by another 0.75 percentage points today, as it tries to control runaway prices. The central bank also signaled that additional rate hikes are likely.

www.npr.org

The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage points Wednesday, matching hikes in June and July. The Fed has been boosting borrowing costs at the fastest pace in decades. But so far, its actions have done little to curb the rapid run-up in prices.

The annual inflation rate in August was 8.3% — down only slightly from the month before. While the price of gasoline has dropped sharply from its record high in June, and used cars and airline tickets have gotten somewhat cheaper, other costs — including rent, groceries and electricity — continue to climb.

 

[zztop]

Came across this today. Another example of "blame Democrats"

 

[itsclaireburks]

Came across this today. Another example of "blame Democrats"

Thats the problem with the macro economy, no one has the patience to see how policy plays out, and by the time the success is realized, the players have changed and the rules changed, therefor continuing an endless cycle of ups and downs.

 

[coldseat]

Tell me again how the economy is so bad right now ...

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Blue collar workers won big in 2023, defying bleak predictions​

The year began with a recession forecast but ended with substantial wage growth and record union contracts for hundreds of thousands of workers​

A year that started out with bleak prospects, including a widely predicted recession, shaped up to be a boon for the average American worker — and one of the most triumphant for organized labor in a generation.

More than 525,000 workers in the United States walked off the job in 2023, according to Bloomberg Law’s database of work stoppages, making it one of the three biggest strike years since 1990. Many of those strikes led to big concessions from employers, such as the landmark deal reached by the UAW in October.

Employers agreed to pay more for workers because of a historically tight labor market, meaning it proved more economical to boost wages and benefits than to try to find new workers or risk losing current ones.

The unemployment rate, a key indicator of the labor market’s health, has remained below 4 percent for two years as of November, a stretch last accomplished in the 1960s. And hourly wage growth began to outpace inflation this spring after years of falling behind, boosting workers’ standard of living, especially the lowest earners.

“Resilience was really the theme for the labor market in 2023,” said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at the jobs site Glassdoor, noting that the market created a ripe environment for a heightened number of workers to strike. “We entered the year with significant headwinds. But as the year progressed, the labor market was able to continue powering forward.”

Headed into 2023, many Wall Street forecasters were predicting a recession. The Federal Reserve was in the midst of an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates to fight inflation, leading to the widespread belief that the unemployment rate would rise in response to weakened labor demand. Those fears lingered into the early months of the year, as 160,000 layoffs in the tech industry in the first quarter and a series of bank failures briefly sparked concerns about a broader meltdown in the economy.

Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan, called 2023 “genuinely a banner year for the working class and low-paid workers,” noting the economic recovery since covid has been strongest for those on the lower end of the income scale.

“Low unemployment is the most important thing raising the stock of American workers,” he said. “The second most important thing is they’ve managed to negotiate quite substantial real wage gains.”

...

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/12/30/2023-strikes-workers-american-wages-labor/

 

[UriUT]

Came across this today. Another example of "blame Democrats"

He forgot Trump's trade war with China that cost us 0.7% points in gdp while accomplishing nothing. Or how he interfered in an opec+ oil price war that raised gas prices. And of course, that 2 trillion dollars tax break for the mega wealthy and corporations. And to think some Americans think he's good for the economy when he lived off of Obama's policy.

 

[zztop]

The Fed's first rate cut won't happen until June after surprisingly cautious guidance from the central bank, Bank of America says

Sights were set on a first Fed rate cut coming in March. But the Fed's surprisingly cautious tone on Wednesday has altered forecasts.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[zztop]

I wonder if I should post this in the inflation topic on the EE board

 

[DaveXA]

I wonder if I should post this in the inflation topic on the EE board

The problem is the dummy in the tweet doesn't understand or acknowledge that corporate profits are a key driver of inflation.

Regardless, I'm not sure anyone out there is denying increased corporate profits are a substantial component of inflation. Whether that's justified or not is a whole other discussion.

 

[LA - L.A.]

There's disagreement among economist as to whether not corporate profit drives inflation or benefits from inflation.

Why are prices still so high? Corporate greed, some say. | CNN Business

Hearing that big corporations are raking in hefty profits frustrates Nick Rosolino. As the owners of a small cleaning business in rural Maine, Rosolino and his wife are finding it increasingly difficult to break even after the prices for the products they use soared in recent years.

www.cnn.com

Deciphering the impact of wage inflation on corporate margins - The Global Treasurer

Wage inflation is now the main driver of consumer price inflation, impacting corporate profit margins and sparking debates on its effects versus corporate pricing strategies, with global monetary policies responding variably.

www.theglobaltreasurer.com

How are high corporate profits related to high inflation?

The disconnect between 40-year high inflation and historically high corporate profits has led some Democratic lawmakers

www.politifact.com

 

[zztop]

interesting spin