The trade and economy mega-thread (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[Neworleansfan]

If he fires Powell….this could really really get bad:

https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/s/8mfyZPBjhg

Wow. He will force Powell to cut rates.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Now that trillions of dollars have vanished as a consequence of the Trump tariffs, I see that some liberals who are sitting on high perches are talking about how the tide is turning against the president. They tell us that even Donald Trump’s voters are changing their minds.

It’s things like this that worry me. It tells me that liberals still operate according to certain articles of faith that are well beyond their expiration dates. It tells me that liberals grossly underestimate the power of corruption, greed, arrogance and stupidity, and grossly overestimate the inherent goodness of the American people.

For the last 25 years or so, liberals have complained about the fact that people who vote for Republicans always vote against their own economic self-interest. Yet at the same time, liberals believe deep in their bones that once they experience economic hardship, as a consequence of their vote, these same voters will change their minds.

Why would they do that? If they truly understood their own economic self-interest, they wouldn’t have voted against it in the first place. They don’t. Their vote is proof. So the question is: Why should we expect people who don’t understand what’s good for them to change their minds? Why should we expect people who don’t understand what’s good for them to see the value of the Democrats’ economic policies?

The common response is that their suffering will force them. Suffering, however, isn’t the same thing as changing your mind. It isn’t the same thing as accepting responsibility for choices made. It certainly is not the same thing as saying you should have voted for the Democrat.

Yes, they will complain. They will cry! But that’s not turning on Donald Trump. That’s being in the habit of being the center of attention safe in the belief that your suffering is the only suffering that really counts..............

If you think Trump voters are changing their tune, you're fooling yourself

Now that trillions of dollars have vanished as a consequence of the Trump tariffs, I see that some liberals who are sitting on high perches are talking about how the tide is turning against the president. They tell us that even Donald Trump’s voters are changing their minds.It’s things like this...

www.alternet.org

If you think Trump voters are changing their tune, you're fooling yourself ​

 

[Optimus Prime]

Before he stepped down as Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau called Donald Trump’s tariff policies “very dumb.” This might be an accurate description of many Trump administration policies — but the more objectively correct word is “stupid.”

In fact, Québec’s largest newspaper, Le Journal de Montréal, published a front-page photo of Trump in early February with the word “stupid” in 350-point type. Some may call this an opinion, but the science of stupidity tells us that it’s more of a definition.

Recent research has produced a succinct label for the poorly calculated actions of decision-makers: stupidity.

This is not simple name-calling, but a phenomenon that comprises loss and features a set of actions that are either outright recognizably dysfunctional, or appear so at odds with any sensible course of action that it seems a hidden agenda could be involved.

According to the seminal and transactional view of human stupidity by Carlo Cipolla, the late Italian economic historian, interactions fall into four categories:

1. Intelligent interactions that are beneficial to all – a positive-sum game like Scottish philosopher Adam Smith’s notion of wealth through specialization and trade;
   1. Helpless interactions that result in a loss in a zero-sum game;
   2. Bandit interactions that result in a gain in zero-sum game;
   3. Stupid interactions that cause all parties to suffer a loss.

Free trade is based on an intelligent positive-sum interaction. Trump’s transactional zero-sum view is that for every winner there is a loser.

He apparently doesn’t understand that tariffs are only successful if other countries don’t retaliate. But other countries do retaliate, and as the world is now witnessing, the resulting trade war can decimate the global economy.

Trump’s protectionist measures aimed at boosting the U.S. economy can therefore be considered “stupid” interactions that risk deepening and lengthening an economic depression..................

Donald Trump’s policies are more than dumb — they’re stupid, according to stupidity researchers

The actions of the Trump administration on several fronts exhibit scientifically defined features of stupidity of many kinds.

theconversation.com

 

[Sendai]

as has been discussed before, and as Peter Retarrdo mentioned, Tesla assembles, not mfg.

So in that article, Tesla has 2 main suppliers of Lithium Ion battery cells- LG CHEM and CATL. LG CHEM is Korean and CATL is Chinese. So the the heart of his battery comes from overseas, shipped to his "gigafactory" and assembled into a battery pack there. So that article doesnt dispel Teslas exposure to tariffs.

Where else will Elon get Lithium Ion Cells? any idea? India? Vietnam? Cost from them?


As for Walmart- they still have 60% exposure to the tariffs on everything you just stated. India and Vietnam- while "ramping up" supply doesnt equate to the 60% exposure.

They just pulled operating guidance yesterday

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/walmart-pulls-q1-guidance-due-to-trump-tariffs.html

The issue of tariffs arent particularly the tariffs themselves. Its the uncertainty they bring to every single corporation who relies on very little fluctuations to offer guidance/outlooks to investors. They simply dont know. And if they dont know, we dont know.

Do you know what production capabilities India and Vietnam have for electronics? Turnaround time? cost to mfg? All these ( and more ) have to be answered in order to get a good idea of what ramifications this trade war will have.

Uncertainty rankles the market - always has, always will.

“
Yes, assembly is considered a part of the manufacturing process, specifically the stage where previously manufactured components are combined to create a finished product.

Here's a more detailed explanation:

Manufacturing:
Manufacturing encompasses the entire process of creating a product, from raw materials to a finished good”


“Tesla (TSLA) is a U.S. automotive and energy company based in Palo Alto, California. The company manufactures electric cars and solar panels as well as batteries and aeronautics. Tesla operates six "gigafactories" around the world to produce its eponymous electric vehicles as well as rechargeable batteries to power them.


Supplier relationships and how battery-related revenue is doing can be a key driver for Tesla. Tesla produces most of its batteries through a partnership with Panasonic, but it has since diversified to other suppliers as well as producing some batteries in-house.1 In 2022, CEO Elon Musk set the goal of producing 1,000 gigawatt-hours of battery capacity in the United States, but it is not clear when he hopes to reach that goal.”

The Economics of Tesla’s Batteries Business

Tesla is breaking ground in electric cars, solar panels, and clean energy storage. Here's a closer look at the economics of Tesla batteries.

www.investopedia.com

“Texas Refinery:
Tesla has a large-scale lithium refinery in Texas that's expected to produce significant amounts of battery-grade lithium hydroxide. ”

“Vertical Integration:
Tesla's refining efforts are part of a broader strategy to vertically integrate its supply chain, aiming to control costs and ensure a stable supply of lithium. “

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

What many are forgetting is that they did a "dry run" of this caper on Monday:

How actual ‘fake news’ caused the market whiplash | CNN Business

An errant post on X may have just shaken the stock market, showing how influential — and irresponsible — the social media platform can be.

edition.cnn.com

They made it look like "fake news", but in the criminal world, this was actually a "dry run" to show proof of concept.

 

[efil4]

“
Yes, assembly is considered a part of the manufacturing process, specifically the stage where previously manufactured components are combined to create a finished product.

Here's a more detailed explanation:

Manufacturing:
Manufacturing encompasses the entire process of creating a product, from raw materials to a finished good”


“Tesla (TSLA) is a U.S. automotive and energy company based in Palo Alto, California. The company manufactures electric cars and solar panels as well as batteries and aeronautics. Tesla operates six "gigafactories" around the world to produce its eponymous electric vehicles as well as rechargeable batteries to power them.


Supplier relationships and how battery-related revenue is doing can be a key driver for Tesla. Tesla produces most of its batteries through a partnership with Panasonic, but it has since diversified to other suppliers as well as producing some batteries in-house.1 In 2022, CEO Elon Musk set the goal of producing 1,000 gigawatt-hours of battery capacity in the United States, but it is not clear when he hopes to reach that goal.”

The Economics of Tesla’s Batteries Business

Tesla is breaking ground in electric cars, solar panels, and clean energy storage. Here's a closer look at the economics of Tesla batteries.

www.investopedia.com

“Texas Refinery:
Tesla has a large-scale lithium refinery in Texas that's expected to produce significant amounts of battery-grade lithium hydroxide. ”

“Vertical Integration:
Tesla's refining efforts are part of a broader strategy to vertically integrate its supply chain, aiming to control costs and ensure a stable supply of lithium. “

To refine lithium hydroxide, you need lithium in its pure state. Care to guess where 2/3s of the Lithium this refinery will get comes from?

China.

not quite sure the point you are attempting to make, but again, his exposure to tariffs are quite evident.

BTW- love the vertical integration strategy- McDonalds was the first to really take advantage and refine - but the ROI takes years to develop so long as you dont have any real competition.

 

[Sendai]

To refine lithium hydroxide, you need lithium in its pure state. Care to guess where 2/3s of the Lithium this refinery will get comes from?

China.

not quite sure the point you are attempting to make, but again, his exposure to tariffs are quite evident.

BTW- love the vertical integration strategy- McDonalds was the first to really take advantage and refine - but the ROI takes years to develop so long as you dont have any real competition.

“Tesla manufactures several key car parts in-house, including the electric motor, battery pack, charger, and major structural pieces like megacastings and body panels. Additionally, Tesla designs and manufactures its own FSD computer (HW3 chips) under contract with Samsung, and is the only major manufacturer to make its own car seats. “

“In January 2023, Tesla amended its agreement with Piedmont Lithium(ASXLL,NASDAQLL), which now supplies the US automaker with spodumene concentrate from its North American Lithium operation, a joint venture with Sayona Mining (ASX:SYA,OTCQB:SYAXF). The deal is in place through the end of 2025.”

Additionally Tesla gets lithium from Albemarle

“Albemarle, a major lithium producer, sources lithium from various locations including Australia, Chile, and the United States. Specifically, they operate mines in Australia and Chile, and have a significant lithium production site in Nevada, USA, called Silver Peak. They also have plans for a domestic lithium mine in North Carolina, called Kings Mountain, which is expected to come online soon. ”

“Megacastings and body panels, which are critical structural components, are also made in-house. “

 

[efil4]

“Tesla manufactures several key car parts in-house, including the electric motor, battery pack, charger, and major structural pieces like megacastings and body panels. Additionally, Tesla designs and manufactures its own FSD computer (HW3 chips) under contract with Samsung, and is the only major manufacturer to make its own car seats. “

And? remember "manufacturing" is part of the assembly process.

Tesla doesnt mfg the seat upholstry- that comes from Holzhausen and UltraFabrics- Germany and Japan respectively.

megacasting requries aluminum.

Tesla sources aluminum from multiple global suppliers, including Hydro (a Norwegian metals giant) and Rusal (a Russian metals company). [1, 2, 3]
Here's a more detailed breakdown: [1, 2]

• Hydro (Norsk Hydro A.S.): Tesla has worked with Hydro for many years, and they are considered a more important aluminum supplier. Hydro's aluminum metal production facilities are located in Europe, Canada, Australia, Brazil, and Qatar. [1, 2]
• Rusal: Tesla began purchasing aluminum from Rusal, a Russian metals company founded by sanctioned oligarch Oleg Deripaska, in late 2020. Rusal was once sanctioned by the US Treasury, but those sanctions were lifted in 2019. [1, 3]
• Other Suppliers: Besides Hydro and Rusal, Tesla also has ties to other aluminum suppliers, including UACJ (a major Japanese aluminum group). [4]
• Tesla's Aluminum Usage: Tesla uses aluminum for casting, to make body shells for the Tesla Model Y, and for other parts, including roof rails and supportive parts for frames. [3, 4]
• Tesla's Supply Chain Mapping: Tesla has intensified supply chain mapping for aluminum, driven by global trade regulations to combat forced labor. [5]

Generative AI is experimental.
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/14/tes...m-from-russian-supplier-rusal-since-2020.html
[2] https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101776093/musks-%22unspeakable-hidden%22-under-the-russian-ukrainian-crisis-tesla-purchases-aluminum-from-russian-oligarchs
[3] https://castingssa.com/war-complicates-aluminium-supply-chain-for-tesla/
[4] https://electrek.co/2017/02/20/tesla-model-3-aluminum-part-supplier-invest-production/
[5] https://www.automotivelogistics.med...chinese-aluminium-supply-chains/45257.article

You know, as i look back on the last few posts, its becoming obvious that a good portion of Tesla components are actually sourced and partly mfg outside US.

 

[Eeyore]

 

[Optimus Prime]

I saw whitmer’s name pop up a lot yesterday but wasn’t sure why
==============

A potential 2028 Democratic candidate broke with many of her colleagues on President Donald Trump’s volatile tariffs, calling them a “blunt tool” necessary to bring manufacturing back to the US in a speech.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, 53, drew criticism from fellow Democrats but received praise from the man at the center of the current trade dispute, President Trump.

Whitmer’s speech came just hours before she met with Trump in the Oval Office. That same morning, China responded to the president’s 104 percent tariff that had just kicked in by slapping 84 percent in retaliatory tariffs on US imports.

“I came to D.C. because I really believe in our ability to bridge political divides and make lasting progress,” Whitmer told the media.

“I’m not going to sugarcoat it. These last few days have been really tough for Michigan. Twenty percent of our economy is tied to the auto industry, which depends on a steady flow of goods from our largest and closest trading partners.”

“We’re home to the busiest border crossing in North America – more than 10,000 vehicles carrying parts and materials cross the bridge between Detroit and Windsor every weekday. We’re already seeing the impacts of tariffs: auto companies are stockpiling parts and laying off workers,” she continued.……

Potential Democratic candidate in 2028 strikes different tone on tariffs

Taking a bipartisan approach, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said, ‘We’ve got to work with our friends and compete against our adversaries’

www.independent.co.uk

 

[MT15]

Red lobster is off the table. I did not sell yesterday...

I have a question - whenever you sell, aren’t you immediately on the hook for any capital gains? When I started thinking about actually selling the majority of our stocks, I thought of the amount of unrealized capital gains and knew it would be a nightmare for our taxes.

Unlike the truly wealthy, we pay a lot of taxes anyway every year.

 

[efil4]

I have a question - whenever you sell, aren’t you immediately on the hook for any capital gains? When I started thinking about actually selling the majority of our stocks, I thought of the amount of unrealized capital gains and knew it would be a nightmare for our taxes.

Unlike the truly wealthy, we pay a lot of taxes anyway every year.

If it's within traditional IRA, no.

Imagine 401k same.

Not sure on Roth IRA.

 

[Lapaz]

I suspect the stock market will settle out as companies that are impacted the most are re-priced, but the impact to our economy and relations won’t recover as easily. Trump is such a disaster, but he has effectively gotten the media to stop focusing on all of his crimes and erosion of Democracy.

 

[superchuck500]

Bond selling happening again

https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/

 

[superchuck500]

 

[UriUT]

Why the bond market matters for your finances and the economy

A selloff hit bonds overnight amid fallout from President Donald Trump's tariffs.

abcnews.go.com

Why the bond market matters to the avg Americans.

 

[UriUT]

A perspective on what they are trying to do.

 

[efil4]

And by "...will continue until HE pays a price", He means us. The US.