The trade and economy mega-thread (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[superchuck500]

In a nutshell, this:

While you weren't looking, the trade war with China went off the rails

President Donald Trump's 1-1/2-year trade war with China has hurt the US economy, but America is ending up right back where we started.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[wardorican]

Trump uses flamethrower on bullish investors again and serves up one valuable investing lesson

President Trump's latest comments on the trade war front should serve up a valuable lesson to investors.

finance.yahoo.com

His whole platform was going to be running on a strong Economy. Now he's not interested in completing a trade deal?

My guess is that it is just bluster to make China come to him. We shall see.

 

[superchuck500]

He’s now floating tariffs against NATO members.

 

[efil4]

In a nutshell, this:

While you weren't looking, the trade war with China went off the rails

President Donald Trump's 1-1/2-year trade war with China has hurt the US economy, but America is ending up right back where we started.

www.businessinsider.com

Which is EXACTLY what we had been alluding to all along on the previous PDB board on this very subject.

Moving the "end game" posts to eek out ANY sort of claim of a win.

And some folks bought it.

 

[Nebaghead]

Which is EXACTLY what we had been alluding to all along on the previous PDB board on this very subject.

Moving the "end game" posts to eek out ANY sort of claim of a win.

And some folks bought it.

Shocked I tell ya, shocked.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[wardorican]

Which is EXACTLY what we had been alluding to all along on the previous PDB board on this very subject.

Moving the "end game" posts to eek out ANY sort of claim of a win.

And some folks bought it.

Except I'm not sure he's doing that now. I think he's moving the goal posts on China, so the nature of what they are negotiating keeps changing. He's seemingly stick on trade deficits. He needs to remain focused on IP theft and general fair trade practices and opening up markets.

 

[efil4]

Except I'm not sure he's doing that now. I think he's moving the goal posts on China, so the nature of what they are negotiating keeps changing. He's seemingly stick on trade deficits. He needs to remain focused on IP theft and general fair trade practices and opening up markets.

He is treating this like he is negotiating for one of his properties. Promising the world and delivering on nothing close to it. Chaotic and without a clear process or goal. All he wants is a building with his name on it for as cheap as he can get it built, so he can tout as a new glorious Trump property.

Same here w/ China.

 

[Intensesaint]

Interesting, not much coverage about the jobs numbers yesterday. I wonder why?



Love what Kramer says about the media "People don't want to say good things"

 

[The moose]

Interesting, not much coverage about the jobs numbers yesterday. I wonder why?



Love what Kramer says about the media "People don't want to say good things"

Cuz the real reason for the jump is because the gm strike is over. It is like a 50k jump in just gm workers.

So yep just a bit over expected in a seasonal job force.

 

[JimEverett]

Cuz the real reason for the jump is because the gm strike is over. It is like a 50k jump in just gm workers.

So yep just a bit over expected in a seasonal job force.

Just a little? Analysts were pegging the over/under at 170,000-180,000 - which included the 50,000 from GM. That is not a "just a bit over" Its a substantial increase over expectations.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Even with the GM jobs returning, this was a good jobs report, and there is certainly a reluctance to talk about good news. I'm not sure Trump has a lot of room to complain since he kept saying how terrible the economy was when he was running for President and the monthly job reports were the same...

It is annoying though b/c it's hard to diagnose what's working and what isn't when everything gets shrouded in partisan viewpoints.

 

[The moose]

Even with the GM jobs returning, this was a good jobs report, and there is certainly a reluctance to talk about good news. I'm not sure Trump has a lot of room to complain since he kept saying how terrible the economy was when he was running for President and the monthly job reports were the same...

It is annoying though b/c it's hard to diagnose what's working and what isn't when everything gets shrouded in partisan viewpoints.

Jobs numbers are always a bit misleading.

The fact that boomers are retiring at a huge rate that never gets reported what ages out of the workforce.

I have read in the past that the figure is north of 10k a day retire.

So did we gain anything? Or lost about 50k jobs or so.

What story do you want to believe?

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

What story do you want to believe?

The jobs report measures he delta of total number of jobs, so it takes into account baby boomers retiring. The jobs report was very good. It's been very good for a while now.

Don't get caught up trying to over analyze the numbers, that's what Trump did during the election to form play how good the economy was at the time. I prefer the same statistics and look at trend lines.

Another article on some positive trends

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[The moose]

The jobs report measures he delta of total number of jobs, so it takes into account baby boomers retiring. The jobs report was very good. It's been very good for a while now.

Don't get caught up trying to over analyze the numbers, that's what Trump did during the election to form play how good the economy was at the time. I prefer the same statistics and look at trend lines.

Another article on some positive trends

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Dude the jobs report only counts people looking for work unemployed in the last 4 weeks. Active looking for work.

Retired people are not looking for work.

Those are the facts.

How the Jobs Report Comes Together (Published 2019)

The figures may change from month to month, but the way the Labor Department compiles its employment data does not.

www.nytimes.com

A good article breaking it down.

So let's ask a question.

If we loose 10k boomers a day to retirement then we are at a net loss ever single month correct?

Well if we are we eventually will be in need of serious immigration?

So what is that wall about but being racist?

 

[Intensesaint]

Dude the jobs report only counts people looking for work unemployed in the last 4 weeks. Active looking for work.

Retired people are not looking for work.

Those are the facts.

How the Jobs Report Comes Together (Published 2019)

The figures may change from month to month, but the way the Labor Department compiles its employment data does not.

www.nytimes.com

A good article breaking it down.

So let's ask a question.

If we loose 10k boomers a day to retirement then we are at a net loss ever single month correct?

Well if we are we eventually will be in need of serious immigration?

So what is that wall about but being racist?

Thanks for telling us how terrible it is. I had no idea.

 

[wardorican]

Dude the jobs report only counts people looking for work unemployed in the last 4 weeks. Active looking for work.

Retired people are not looking for work.

Those are the facts.

How the Jobs Report Comes Together (Published 2019)

The figures may change from month to month, but the way the Labor Department compiles its employment data does not.

www.nytimes.com

A good article breaking it down.

So let's ask a question.

If we loose 10k boomers a day to retirement then we are at a net loss ever single month correct?

Well if we are we eventually will be in need of serious immigration?

So what is that wall about but being racist?

Participation rate helps bring clarity on that.

 

[dtc]

Even with the GM jobs returning, this was a good jobs report, and there is certainly a reluctance to talk about good news. I'm not sure Trump has a lot of room to complain since he kept saying how terrible the economy was when he was running for President and the monthly job reports were the same...

It is annoying though b/c it's hard to diagnose what's working and what isn't when everything gets shrouded in partisan viewpoints.

I heard all about it, but what I haven't heard much about is the contraction in manufacturing and the bleak growth numbers the ridiculous tax cuts were supposed to make 5%. I haven't heard anything about the trillion dollars in deficit we're accumulating nor have I heard much about how we've spent more subsidizing farmers than we ever have or how that amount is less than the results of the tariffs.

Mainstream news sells soap. Facts are optional.