The trade and economy mega-thread (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[JimEverett]

Asks to be set straight by someone who know more.



Gets set straight



then laughs as if the information provided by someone who knows way more than him about Economics, was incorrect somehow.


Why ask to be set straight then? you are wasting everyones time.

Oh and as to the "controversy" ...from Aug 2019

Trump Still Doesn't Know Who Pays Tariffs

He refuses to accept the fact that China doesn't pay his tariffs -- Americans do.

www.forbes.com

DTC's response had absolutely nothing to do with the question I asked nor with the information brought up in the article that someone had linked. He just wanted to make a random point.

 

[efil4]

DTC's response had absolutely nothing to do with the question I asked nor with the information brought up in the article that someone had linked. He just wanted to make a random point.

its all intertwined. Thats how economics work.

what you were looking for is for someone to confirm the "recession" fears were unfounded.

Well, you cant. See, so many things factor into what could lead us into recession. One item that has been talked about is housing. If that shoe drops, then we are quite likely to see a recession, coupled with the continued trade war - it only serves to exacerbate an issue that could be dealt with singularly.

So the info he provided was a forecast of the overall economy as most see 2020.

I know its not what you wanted to hear, but its what most economists agree upon.

 

[JimEverett]

its all intertwined. Thats how economics work.

what you were looking for is for someone to confirm the "recession" fears were unfounded.

Well, you cant. See, so many things factor into what could lead us into recession. One item that has been talked about is housing. If that shoe drops, then we are quite likely to see a recession, coupled with the continued trade war - it only serves to exacerbate an issue that could be dealt with singularly.

So the info he provided was a forecast of the overall economy as most see 2020.

I know its not what you wanted to hear, but its what most economists agree upon.

I did not want confirmation that recession fears were unfounded. I made a point about inflation and rates. Namely that there was no inflationary pressure despite the dire warnings about Trumps "stupid trade war" and how the American consumer was going to pay for it - resulting in rate hikes that would slow the economy, etc.

I am not sure what you mean about housing. I think you may mean we may be seeing a seond housing bubble? If so, I agree. Although you may be referring to DTC's anecdotes about raw costs, in which case I would say don;t worry - given that new housing permits just reached a 12 year high. Must be all those tariff costs U.S. homebuilders are paying.

US housing starts rebound; building permits at highest level in over 12 years

U.S. homebuilding rebounded in October and permits for future home construction jumped to a more than 12-year high.

www.cnbc.com

 

[dtc]

I did not want confirmation that recession fears were unfounded. I made a point about inflation and rates. Namely that there was no inflationary pressure despite the dire warnings about Trumps "stupid trade war" and how the American consumer was going to pay for it - resulting in rate hikes that would slow the economy, etc.

I am not sure what you mean about housing. I think you may mean we may be seeing a seond housing bubble? If so, I agree. Although you may be referring to DTC's anecdotes about raw costs, in which case I would say don;t worry - given that new housing permits just reached a 12 year high. Must be all those tariff costs U.S. homebuilders are paying.

US housing starts rebound; building permits at highest level in over 12 years

U.S. homebuilding rebounded in October and permits for future home construction jumped to a more than 12-year high.

www.cnbc.com

Semantics. It's an interesting hobby.

I didn't say we were headed for a recession. In fact, I specifically said we were headed into another long bout of stagnant growth. We have no real inflationary pressure, but when did I ever suggest that Trump's tariffs would be inflationary? Oh, I didn't. What they are is a drag on the economy. They're actually complicit in why his numbers aren't higher and that's because they are useless. They are accomplishing nothing more than forcing us to subsidize farmers and let the traders cash in on volume.

Link the new housing starts, please.

 

[JimEverett]

Semantics. It's an interesting hobby.

I didn't say we were headed for a recession.

I never said you did.

but when did I ever suggest that Trump's tariffs would be recessionary?

I never said you did. Perhaps you should take up semantics as a hobby - you are appearing to struggle with it.

Link the new housing starts, please.

I did.

 

[MT15]

The economy is slowing, according to what I have read recently.

 

[V Chip]

The economy is slowing, according to what I have read recently.

It is.

And it's interesting that now that we have had 4 quarters of average 2% growth or so, the same people who blasted the Obama economy when it hovered at 2% as being a horrible economy are claiming we have a strong economy -- even a "booming" one.

 

[efil4]

I did not want confirmation that recession fears were unfounded. I made a point about inflation and rates. Namely that there was no inflationary pressure despite the dire warnings about Trumps "stupid trade war" and how the American consumer was going to pay for it - resulting in rate hikes that would slow the economy, etc.

I am not sure what you mean about housing. I think you may mean we may be seeing a seond housing bubble? If so, I agree. Although you may be referring to DTC's anecdotes about raw costs, in which case I would say don;t worry - given that new housing permits just reached a 12 year high. Must be all those tariff costs U.S. homebuilders are paying.

US housing starts rebound; building permits at highest level in over 12 years

U.S. homebuilding rebounded in October and permits for future home construction jumped to a more than 12-year high.

www.cnbc.com

a bubble indeed is what i was referencing. In part because the buyer is having to absorb those additional tariffs, increasing the price per square foot. I was part of that just last year. Builder and I signed contract in May 2018 at agreed price. Tariffs enacted in June and they approached me for an additional $5000~ in lumber ( Canadian lumber ) costs. I politely declined as we had an agreed upon price. All this simply does is artificially increase the price of a home, doesnt represent its true value and once those tariffs are removed, costs start to fall, so will housing prices and eventually home values.

The consumer has always and will always pay for it.

 

[Joe Okc]

 

[JimEverett]

a bubble indeed is what i was referencing. In part because the buyer is having to absorb those additional tariffs, increasing the price per square foot. I was part of that just last year. Builder and I signed contract in May 2018 at agreed price. Tariffs enacted in June and they approached me for an additional $5000~ in lumber ( Canadian lumber ) costs. I politely declined as we had an agreed upon price. All this simply does is artificially increase the price of a home, doesnt represent its true value and once those tariffs are removed, costs start to fall, so will housing prices and eventually home values.

The consumer has always and will always pay for it.

I don't think the data really supports your anecdote.

The median price for a new home doesn't seem to be out of whack due to tariffs.

In October of this year the median new home price stood at $316,700. Which is less than it was in March 2018 when Trump announced his tariffs. It is a little bit less than what it was right after Trump was elected. A good bit more than it was right after Trump was inaugurated. But everything seems within the normal range of volatility

Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States

View data of the sales price at the 50th percentile of the distribution of new house prices in the U.S.

fred.stlouisfed.org

.

 

[efil4]

I don't think the data really supports your anecdote.

The median price for a new home doesn't seem to be out of whack due to tariffs.

In October of this year the median new home price stood at $316,700. Which is less than it was in March 2018 when Trump announced his tariffs. It is a little bit less than what it was right after Trump was elected. A good bit more than it was right after Trump was inaugurated. But everything seems within the normal range of volatility

Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States

View data of the sales price at the 50th percentile of the distribution of new house prices in the U.S.

fred.stlouisfed.org

.

The data is based on median sales prices. Its an average. So if there is a plethora of "starter homes" being built, then it will sway the median. conversely, if its custom home builds, it too will sway the median. So one would have to look further into the "numbers" to see exactly what the numbers bear out.

If its starter homes, yeah, 13-1800 sq ft cookie cutters are going to be less. Furthermore, these contractors will look to reduce costs somewhere else to make up for the increased lumber.

 

[JimEverett]

The data is based on median sales prices. Its an average. So if there is a plethora of "starter homes" being built, then it will sway the median. conversely, if its custom home builds, it too will sway the median. So one would have to look further into the "numbers" to see exactly what the numbers bear out.

If its starter homes, yeah, 13-1800 sq ft cookie cutters are going to be less. Furthermore, these contractors will look to reduce costs somewhere else to make up for the increased lumber.

Regardless, the numbers clearly do not support the assertion that the tariffs are having a discernible on the price homebuyers are paying - despite the assertions you have made.

 

[CoolBrees]

You are correct, Jim. The short and midterm look fine; with trouble potentially on the horizon. I am by no means an expert; I just happen to own a business in a canary industry.

As far as I have seen, manufacturing is down but not everywhere- food manufacturing is doing well for instance. investment in manufacturing equipment has slowed. Commercial Air handling is down, but mechanical supply houses are up. To me these sectors are the tea leaves for the economy as a whole. When manufacturers stop buying new equipment- especially air handling - and start repairing instead of replacing means their outlooks show slowed growth and the ROIs in procurement no longer pencil.

This is one reason the manufacturing industry always booms in the short term during recovery because all of the deferred maintenance gets done and new equipment is purchased where it is needed.

And by the way, I didn’t mention Trump at all when I posted the labor lag red report. I am in an industry that gets abused and mostly dries up during recessions so to say I am hoping for one is fairly insulting, and also fairly small minded. To think that people actually wish harm on fellow Americans just to get rid of Trump is a sad commentary. It isn’t true for me, and I can pretty much guarantee it goes for everyone on this board.

 

[JimEverett]

You are correct, Jim. The short and midterm look fine; with trouble potentially on the horizon. I am by no means an expert; I just happen to own a business in a canary industry.

As far as I have seen, manufacturing is down but not everywhere- food manufacturing is doing well for instance. investment in manufacturing equipment has slowed. Commercial Air handling is down, but mechanical supply houses are up. To me these sectors are the tea leaves for the economy as a whole. When manufacturers stop buying new equipment- especially air handling - and start repairing instead of replacing means their outlooks show slowed growth and the ROIs in procurement no longer pencil.

This is one reason the manufacturing industry always booms in the short term during recovery because all of the deferred maintenance gets done and new equipment is purchased where it is needed.

And by the way, I didn’t mention Trump at all when I posted the labor lag red report. I am in an industry that gets abused and mostly dries up during recessions so to say I am hoping for one is fairly insulting, and also fairly small minded. To think that people actually wish harm on fellow Americans just to get rid of Trump is a sad commentary. It isn’t true for me, and I can pretty much guarantee it goes for everyone on this board.

Just to be clear, I wasn't saying it about you. There was a poll that I had read a few months ago that said something like 9% of the population was hoping for a recession.

 

[Nebaghead]

Travel industry is teetering. Rev par for hotels is terrible. They are having to eat into revenue to make up for cost increases. If they raise prices, less bookings. Eventually they will have to raise room prices and the industry will tank.

 

[Dadsdream]

The China trade agreement is a done deal and agricultural exports to China will double within two years?
Whaaaat?
Bold statement coming from the U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.
Let's hope he's not being over-enthusiastic or unintentionally jinxing this deal.
Farmers are skeptical . . . that has to be the understatement of the year.
Paging Captain Obvious?

US trade representative says phase-one trade deal is 'totally done' and will double exports to China in two years

U.S. and Chinese officials announced on Friday that the U.S. and China had finally agreed an agreement after a contentious 18-month trade war.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Dadsdream]

Perhaps there is cause for optimism. China is suspending tariffs that were going to go into effect on U.S. cars and grain. Sounds encouraging.

The suspension covers additional tariffs on products including corn and US-made cars and auto parts, the State Council's Customs Tariff Commission said on its website. Tariffs already in place on other US goods will remain, the council's statement said.

China suspends tariffs on US-made cars, corn and other goods amid new trade truce

China on Sunday called off additional tariffs set to kick in on some US goods as the two countries pull back from a trade war that has roiled financial markets and damaged global economies.

www.cnn.com

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Perhaps there is cause for optimism. China is suspending tariffs that were going to go into effect on U.S. cars and grain. Sounds encouraging.

The suspension covers additional tariffs on products including corn and US-made cars and auto parts, the State Council's Customs Tariff Commission said on its website. Tariffs already in place on other US goods will remain, the council's statement said.

China suspends tariffs on US-made cars, corn and other goods amid new trade truce

China on Sunday called off additional tariffs set to kick in on some US goods as the two countries pull back from a trade war that has roiled financial markets and damaged global economies.

www.cnn.com

Ending the trade war is encouraging, but it looks like we're just going roughly back to where we were before this began, right? What was the point of the last 2 years of trade wars then?