The trade and economy mega-thread (1 Viewer)

JimEverett

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 30, 2019
Messages
942
Reaction score
583
Location
Nashville
Offline
Asks to be set straight by someone who know more.



Gets set straight



then laughs as if the information provided by someone who knows way more than him about Economics, was incorrect somehow.


Why ask to be set straight then? you are wasting everyones time.

Oh and as to the "controversy" ...from Aug 2019

DTC's response had absolutely nothing to do with the question I asked nor with the information brought up in the article that someone had linked. He just wanted to make a random point.
 

efil4

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 14, 2019
Messages
113
Reaction score
131
Age
49
Location
Covington, LA
Offline
DTC's response had absolutely nothing to do with the question I asked nor with the information brought up in the article that someone had linked. He just wanted to make a random point.

its all intertwined. Thats how economics work.

what you were looking for is for someone to confirm the "recession" fears were unfounded.

Well, you cant. See, so many things factor into what could lead us into recession. One item that has been talked about is housing. If that shoe drops, then we are quite likely to see a recession, coupled with the continued trade war - it only serves to exacerbate an issue that could be dealt with singularly.

So the info he provided was a forecast of the overall economy as most see 2020.

I know its not what you wanted to hear, but its what most economists agree upon.
 

JimEverett

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 30, 2019
Messages
942
Reaction score
583
Location
Nashville
Offline
its all intertwined. Thats how economics work.

what you were looking for is for someone to confirm the "recession" fears were unfounded.

Well, you cant. See, so many things factor into what could lead us into recession. One item that has been talked about is housing. If that shoe drops, then we are quite likely to see a recession, coupled with the continued trade war - it only serves to exacerbate an issue that could be dealt with singularly.

So the info he provided was a forecast of the overall economy as most see 2020.

I know its not what you wanted to hear, but its what most economists agree upon.
I did not want confirmation that recession fears were unfounded. I made a point about inflation and rates. Namely that there was no inflationary pressure despite the dire warnings about Trumps "stupid trade war" and how the American consumer was going to pay for it - resulting in rate hikes that would slow the economy, etc.

I am not sure what you mean about housing. I think you may mean we may be seeing a seond housing bubble? If so, I agree. Although you may be referring to DTC's anecdotes about raw costs, in which case I would say don;t worry - given that new housing permits just reached a 12 year high. Must be all those tariff costs U.S. homebuilders are paying.

 

dtc

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 28, 2019
Messages
259
Reaction score
391
Age
51
Location
Florida
Offline
I did not want confirmation that recession fears were unfounded. I made a point about inflation and rates. Namely that there was no inflationary pressure despite the dire warnings about Trumps "stupid trade war" and how the American consumer was going to pay for it - resulting in rate hikes that would slow the economy, etc.

I am not sure what you mean about housing. I think you may mean we may be seeing a seond housing bubble? If so, I agree. Although you may be referring to DTC's anecdotes about raw costs, in which case I would say don;t worry - given that new housing permits just reached a 12 year high. Must be all those tariff costs U.S. homebuilders are paying.

Semantics. It's an interesting hobby.

I didn't say we were headed for a recession. In fact, I specifically said we were headed into another long bout of stagnant growth. We have no real inflationary pressure, but when did I ever suggest that Trump's tariffs would be inflationary? Oh, I didn't. What they are is a drag on the economy. They're actually complicit in why his numbers aren't higher and that's because they are useless. They are accomplishing nothing more than forcing us to subsidize farmers and let the traders cash in on volume.

Link the new housing starts, please.
 
Last edited:

JimEverett

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 30, 2019
Messages
942
Reaction score
583
Location
Nashville
Offline

MT15

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 13, 2019
Messages
1,005
Reaction score
1,240
Location
Midwest
Offline
The economy is slowing, according to what I have read recently.
 

V Chip

Truth Addict
Joined
May 17, 2019
Messages
441
Reaction score
679
Age
52
Location
Outside Atlanta
Offline
The economy is slowing, according to what I have read recently.
It is.

And it's interesting that now that we have had 4 quarters of average 2% growth or so, the same people who blasted the Obama economy when it hovered at 2% as being a horrible economy are claiming we have a strong economy -- even a "booming" one.
 

efil4

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 14, 2019
Messages
113
Reaction score
131
Age
49
Location
Covington, LA
Offline
I did not want confirmation that recession fears were unfounded. I made a point about inflation and rates. Namely that there was no inflationary pressure despite the dire warnings about Trumps "stupid trade war" and how the American consumer was going to pay for it - resulting in rate hikes that would slow the economy, etc.

I am not sure what you mean about housing. I think you may mean we may be seeing a seond housing bubble? If so, I agree. Although you may be referring to DTC's anecdotes about raw costs, in which case I would say don;t worry - given that new housing permits just reached a 12 year high. Must be all those tariff costs U.S. homebuilders are paying.

a bubble indeed is what i was referencing. In part because the buyer is having to absorb those additional tariffs, increasing the price per square foot. I was part of that just last year. Builder and I signed contract in May 2018 at agreed price. Tariffs enacted in June and they approached me for an additional $5000~ in lumber ( Canadian lumber ) costs. I politely declined as we had an agreed upon price. All this simply does is artificially increase the price of a home, doesnt represent its true value and once those tariffs are removed, costs start to fall, so will housing prices and eventually home values.

The consumer has always and will always pay for it.
 

JimEverett

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 30, 2019
Messages
942
Reaction score
583
Location
Nashville
Offline
a bubble indeed is what i was referencing. In part because the buyer is having to absorb those additional tariffs, increasing the price per square foot. I was part of that just last year. Builder and I signed contract in May 2018 at agreed price. Tariffs enacted in June and they approached me for an additional $5000~ in lumber ( Canadian lumber ) costs. I politely declined as we had an agreed upon price. All this simply does is artificially increase the price of a home, doesnt represent its true value and once those tariffs are removed, costs start to fall, so will housing prices and eventually home values.

The consumer has always and will always pay for it.
I don't think the data really supports your anecdote.

The median price for a new home doesn't seem to be out of whack due to tariffs.

In October of this year the median new home price stood at $316,700. Which is less than it was in March 2018 when Trump announced his tariffs. It is a little bit less than what it was right after Trump was elected. A good bit more than it was right after Trump was inaugurated. But everything seems within the normal range of volatility

.
 

efil4

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 14, 2019
Messages
113
Reaction score
131
Age
49
Location
Covington, LA
Offline
I don't think the data really supports your anecdote.

The median price for a new home doesn't seem to be out of whack due to tariffs.

In October of this year the median new home price stood at $316,700. Which is less than it was in March 2018 when Trump announced his tariffs. It is a little bit less than what it was right after Trump was elected. A good bit more than it was right after Trump was inaugurated. But everything seems within the normal range of volatility

.
The data is based on median sales prices. Its an average. So if there is a plethora of "starter homes" being built, then it will sway the median. conversely, if its custom home builds, it too will sway the median. So one would have to look further into the "numbers" to see exactly what the numbers bear out.

If its starter homes, yeah, 13-1800 sq ft cookie cutters are going to be less. Furthermore, these contractors will look to reduce costs somewhere else to make up for the increased lumber.
 

JimEverett

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 30, 2019
Messages
942
Reaction score
583
Location
Nashville
Offline
The data is based on median sales prices. Its an average. So if there is a plethora of "starter homes" being built, then it will sway the median. conversely, if its custom home builds, it too will sway the median. So one would have to look further into the "numbers" to see exactly what the numbers bear out.

If its starter homes, yeah, 13-1800 sq ft cookie cutters are going to be less. Furthermore, these contractors will look to reduce costs somewhere else to make up for the increased lumber.
Regardless, the numbers clearly do not support the assertion that the tariffs are having a discernible on the price homebuyers are paying - despite the assertions you have made.
 

CoolBrees

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 29, 2019
Messages
119
Reaction score
163
Age
43
Location
Portland, Oregon
Offline
You are correct, Jim. The short and midterm look fine; with trouble potentially on the horizon. I am by no means an expert; I just happen to own a business in a canary industry.

As far as I have seen, manufacturing is down but not everywhere- food manufacturing is doing well for instance. investment in manufacturing equipment has slowed. Commercial Air handling is down, but mechanical supply houses are up. To me these sectors are the tea leaves for the economy as a whole. When manufacturers stop buying new equipment- especially air handling - and start repairing instead of replacing means their outlooks show slowed growth and the ROIs in procurement no longer pencil.

This is one reason the manufacturing industry always booms in the short term during recovery because all of the deferred maintenance gets done and new equipment is purchased where it is needed.

And by the way, I didn’t mention Trump at all when I posted the labor lag red report. I am in an industry that gets abused and mostly dries up during recessions so to say I am hoping for one is fairly insulting, and also fairly small minded. To think that people actually wish harm on fellow Americans just to get rid of Trump is a sad commentary. It isn’t true for me, and I can pretty much guarantee it goes for everyone on this board.
 

JimEverett

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 30, 2019
Messages
942
Reaction score
583
Location
Nashville
Offline
You are correct, Jim. The short and midterm look fine; with trouble potentially on the horizon. I am by no means an expert; I just happen to own a business in a canary industry.

As far as I have seen, manufacturing is down but not everywhere- food manufacturing is doing well for instance. investment in manufacturing equipment has slowed. Commercial Air handling is down, but mechanical supply houses are up. To me these sectors are the tea leaves for the economy as a whole. When manufacturers stop buying new equipment- especially air handling - and start repairing instead of replacing means their outlooks show slowed growth and the ROIs in procurement no longer pencil.

This is one reason the manufacturing industry always booms in the short term during recovery because all of the deferred maintenance gets done and new equipment is purchased where it is needed.

And by the way, I didn’t mention Trump at all when I posted the labor lag red report. I am in an industry that gets abused and mostly dries up during recessions so to say I am hoping for one is fairly insulting, and also fairly small minded. To think that people actually wish harm on fellow Americans just to get rid of Trump is a sad commentary. It isn’t true for me, and I can pretty much guarantee it goes for everyone on this board.
Just to be clear, I wasn't saying it about you. There was a poll that I had read a few months ago that said something like 9% of the population was hoping for a recession.
 

Nebaghead

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 28, 2019
Messages
250
Reaction score
304
Age
47
Location
Omaha, NE
Offline
Travel industry is teetering. Rev par for hotels is terrible. They are having to eat into revenue to make up for cost increases. If they raise prices, less bookings. Eventually they will have to raise room prices and the industry will tank.
 

Dadsdream

Ugly people have ugly children.
Joined
May 17, 2019
Messages
850
Reaction score
546
Age
63
Location
Hancock
Offline
The China trade agreement is a done deal and agricultural exports to China will double within two years?
Whaaaat?
Bold statement coming from the U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.
Let's hope he's not being over-enthusiastic or unintentionally jinxing this deal.
Farmers are skeptical . . . that has to be the understatement of the year.
Paging Captain Obvious?

 

Dadsdream

Ugly people have ugly children.
Joined
May 17, 2019
Messages
850
Reaction score
546
Age
63
Location
Hancock
Offline
Perhaps there is cause for optimism. China is suspending tariffs that were going to go into effect on U.S. cars and grain. Sounds encouraging.

The suspension covers additional tariffs on products including corn and US-made cars and auto parts, the State Council's Customs Tariff Commission said on its website. Tariffs already in place on other US goods will remain, the council's statement said.

 

UncleTrvlingJim

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 8, 2018
Messages
349
Reaction score
692
Location
Virginia
Offline
Perhaps there is cause for optimism. China is suspending tariffs that were going to go into effect on U.S. cars and grain. Sounds encouraging.

The suspension covers additional tariffs on products including corn and US-made cars and auto parts, the State Council's Customs Tariff Commission said on its website. Tariffs already in place on other US goods will remain, the council's statement said.

Ending the trade war is encouraging, but it looks like we're just going roughly back to where we were before this began, right? What was the point of the last 2 years of trade wars then?
 

Create an account or login to comment

You must be a member in order to leave a comment

Create account

Create an account on our community. It's easy!

Log in

Already have an account? Log in here.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 1)

Fact Checkers News Feed

Top Bottom