The trade and economy mega-thread (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Last year, while Joe Biden was US president, Jenny and her husband booked a trip to Boston for June 2025.

The British couple had been to New York before and wanted to see more of the country. But after Donald Trump’s re-election in November, Jenny said a “shadow” began to fall on their travel plans.

Since Trump took office, reports have emerged from US border points of tourists being detained and interrogated, people with work permits sent to Ice detention centres and even a US citizen seemingly told to leave the country – as well as people being wrongly deported.


Overseas visits to the US were down 11.6% in March compared with the same month last year, according to the US National Travel and Tourism Office.

“I had a growing feeling that I really didn’t want to give this new America our money,” said Jenny, a 54-year-old former librarian from Northamptonshire. “But it took the news of the detainments at airports and borders to really crystallise our concerns into action.”

The pair decided to cancel the trip.

Dozens of people responded to an online callout to share their views about travelling to the US in light of the Trump administration’s policies. While several people reported no problems entering and leaving the US, others spoke of anxiety at the border and unpleasant interactions with officials – although many people raised it as being a longstanding problem.

Jenny said it was frightening to see the reports of detainments and deportations in the supposed “land of the free”.

After deciding not to travel, “we just feel so relieved,” she said. “We’ve now cancelled the flights and hotel and are heading to Crete for a week instead. We’ll visit Boston when Trump is long gone.”………

‘I don’t want to give money to this America’: tourists’ fears of US travel under Trump

With US visits down 11.6% in March compared with last year, people share their views and experiences on the US border

www.theguardian.com

 

[superchuck500]

 

[MT15]

 

[superchuck500]

 

[efil4]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-will-study-whether-fire-fed-chair-powell-adviser-says-2025-04-18/

He looking for a way to remove Powell.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Washington (CNN) — President Donald Trump falsely claimed Thursday that some states saw gas prices fall to just $1.98 on Wednesday.

Trump was responding to a journalist who asked him at the White House how long Americans can expect to experience higher prices because of his trade policies.

Trump claimed Americans have already seen the situation “get much better,” alleged the reporter is not “truthful,” then added, “You have gasoline that hit $1.98 yesterday in a couple of states.”

That’s not true. No state had an average gas price even close to $1.98 per gallon on Wednesday. The two states that were tied with the lowest average gas price on Wednesday, Mississippi and Tennessee, were both at $2.70 per gallon, according to data provided by AAA.

The national average was about $3.17 per gallon on Wednesday, per the AAA data. And Wednesday drivers were unlikely to find even an individual gas station selling a gallon for $1.98 or less.

GasBuddy, a firm that tracks prices at tens of thousands of gas stations around the country, found zero stations selling for under $2 on Wednesday, said Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis.

The lowest price GasBuddy found on Wednesday was $2.19 per gallon at a station in Texas. Of more than 500 metro areas whose prices are tracked by AAA, the one with the lowest average price, Abilene, Texas, was at about $2.57 per gallon……..

Fact check: Trump falsely claims gas prices hit $1.98 in some states | CNN Politics

President Donald Trump falsely claimed Thursday that some states saw gas prices fall to just $1.98 on Wednesday.

www.cnn.com

 

[bird]

Washington (CNN) — President Donald Trump falsely claimed Thursday that some states saw gas prices fall to just $1.98 on Wednesday.

Trump was responding to a journalist who asked him at the White House how long Americans can expect to experience higher prices because of his trade policies.

Trump claimed Americans have already seen the situation “get much better,” alleged the reporter is not “truthful,” then added, “You have gasoline that hit $1.98 yesterday in a couple of states.”

That’s not true. No state had an average gas price even close to $1.98 per gallon on Wednesday. The two states that were tied with the lowest average gas price on Wednesday, Mississippi and Tennessee, were both at $2.70 per gallon, according to data provided by AAA.

The national average was about $3.17 per gallon on Wednesday, per the AAA data. And Wednesday drivers were unlikely to find even an individual gas station selling a gallon for $1.98 or less.

GasBuddy, a firm that tracks prices at tens of thousands of gas stations around the country, found zero stations selling for under $2 on Wednesday, said Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis.

The lowest price GasBuddy found on Wednesday was $2.19 per gallon at a station in Texas. Of more than 500 metro areas whose prices are tracked by AAA, the one with the lowest average price, Abilene, Texas, was at about $2.57 per gallon……..

Fact check: Trump falsely claims gas prices hit $1.98 in some states | CNN Politics

President Donald Trump falsely claimed Thursday that some states saw gas prices fall to just $1.98 on Wednesday.

www.cnn.com

Call him a liar. Right to his face. If you lose access so forking what? arse-footing around and taming words out of some sort of deference is helping the liar.

 

[MT15]

I can also tell you for sure egg prices are NOT down 92%.

 

[longtime lurker]

Boeing begins flying back planes refused by Chinese airlines

The US plane manufacturer Boeing has begun flying 737 Max jets that were refused by Chinese airline customers back to the United States, as the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies escalates.

www.bangkokpost.com

 

[longtime lurker]

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https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/trump-xi-china-trade-negotiations-00299645

 

[fooferdoggie]

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https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/trump-xi-china-trade-negotiations-00299645

It would be funny as hell if China cut off the MAGA merchandise.

 

[bird]

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https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/trump-xi-china-trade-negotiations-00299645

Trump is an idiot. Xi is toying with him.

 

[UriUT]

I was saying to a friend, it's probably better talking to a psychologist than it is an economist trying to understand what's going on.

This bit is fascinating, because Trump, I think, psychologically needs China to back down and give in, or at least approach him in a way he can frame it as China backing down and giving in. I think, despite his rhetoric, he could and quite possibly will cave in on tariffs, even entirely, just so long as he can spin it, no matter how ludicrously, as a win.

I can't be sure whether he entirely believes his own rhetoric about tariffs are magic, but he definitely cares about his self-image, and I do think he'll happily ditch even things he actually does believe in if he thinks it'll buy him a boost in his own popularity. Just so long as he has an excuse to claim his backing down as winning. I do not believe for a second his ego would let him sacrifice his self-image otherwise, possibly ever, for anything.

But China aren't letting him.

I don't know what happens next. Some would argue the pragmatic thing would be for China to let the pressure build, and then give him a small way out, and I can see that happening. But the counter-argument to that is that if you give him anything, he'll come back for more. It's quite literally bullying. So I can also see China giving nothing, not an inch, that Trump could claim as a victory.

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https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/trump-xi-china-trade-negotiations-00299645

There are a few reasons why I think China will not back down this time. And their actions of the last week or two clearly is pointing that direction.

1. "Wounded Dragon" nationalism.

Viral photo: Resurgent ‘young’ China takes on ‘aging’ US in retreat

They say a picture is worth a thousand words.

news.cgtn.com

For historically and culturally reasons, this photo from the previous Trump trade war with China embodies what foreign policy wonks label China as that 'wounded dragon'. China views itself as one of the preeminent civilization and should be treated as such. Further, Chinese culture deeply values community standing. Image is of great importance to them. So when a country as small as the UK can conquer it in the opium war with a population magnitudes smaller, this deeply wounded their national pride. That humiliation is further deepened when Japan, who they viewed as more of a vassal state, conquered Manchuria and more during WWII. Since then, they have struggled to assert that national pride. They waged war against the Soviets despite both sharing communist ideals, believing that they should be the leader in that communist revolution. Even small acts like their attempt to embarrass Obama by not providing the appropriate steps for Air Force One are ways to regain that national pride. Now Trump is directly challenging them again. From that photo above, they no longer view themselves as those backwards bumpkins wearing traditional ministry garb. They are not easily fooled and are now more ambitious and youthful.

2. The international environment is different today.

There was a clear resentment against China before. They stole IPs. They regularly violated WTO regulations. When Obama negotiated TPP, he worked to build an alliance against an aggressive neighbor in China. Vietnam, Philippine, Japan, S. Korea, Australia etc feared China. The US is a natural ally who would be fair and dependably defend against China's belligerence. We had a large market that can consume their goods. So therefore, we provided an alternative where they will be less reliant on China for wealth. China after all used that dependance to bully each of their neighbors. So they thought. We quickly pulled the rug from under them by electing Trump and rejecting TPP. They were left defenseless against a much bigger neighbor. We were no longer dependable. Biden would not achieve the same cooperation as friends were harder to galvanize. He managed to pull a much smaller military cooperation with S. Korea, Japan, Australia, and UK. Today, we are left friendless. We managed to antagonize the entire world but for a few autocrats. China is now the good guy. We are clearly the aggressor....leading to...

3. We no longer hold the moral high ground or the trust.

China clearly is violating the Uyghur's human rights with their concentration camps. They don't value individual rights and have locked political opponents. Yet despite that, the US, long champions of liberal ideals (individual freedom, self determination, etc) is now in the business of violating human rights. We are unstable. Capital is now flowing out of our country because we are not trustworthy or reliable.

4. China's leadership view our system as self destructive and decadent.

Jack Ma recently remarked that we invested in China and made trillions. Yet, where did we use that money, he asked. In wars. And that cherry on top? We elected an incompetent moron in Trump.

5. Their political system.

Clearly they are authoritarian. Yet they had to pull back after zero covid pushed their citizens to protest the economic damage. Surely this trade war will hurt them as much as it will hurt us. What trump is doing is giving them this 'circle the wagon' around that national pride.

 

[bird]

There are a few reasons why I think China will not back down this time. And their actions of the last week or two clearly is pointing that direction.

1. "Wounded Dragon" nationalism.

Viral photo: Resurgent ‘young’ China takes on ‘aging’ US in retreat

They say a picture is worth a thousand words.

news.cgtn.com

For historically and culturally reasons, this photo from the previous Trump trade war with China embodies what foreign policy wonks label China as that 'wounded dragon'. China views itself as one of the preeminent civilization and should be treated as such. Further, Chinese culture deeply values community standing. Image is of great importance to them. So when a country as small as the UK can conquer it in the opium war with a population magnitudes smaller, this deeply wounded their national pride. That humiliation is further deepened when Japan, who they viewed as more of a vassal state, conquered Manchuria and more during WWII. Since then, they have struggled to assert that national pride. They waged war against the Soviets despite both sharing communist ideals, believing that they should be the leader in that communist revolution. Even small acts like their attempt to embarrass Obama by not providing the appropriate steps for Air Force One are ways to regain that national pride. Now Trump is directly challenging them again. From that photo above, they no longer view themselves as those backwards bumpkins wearing traditional ministry garb. They are not easily fooled and are now more ambitious and youthful.

2. The international environment is different today.

There was a clear resentment against China before. They stole IPs. They regularly violated WTO regulations. When Obama negotiated TPP, he worked to build an alliance against an aggressive neighbor in China. Vietnam, Philippine, Japan, S. Korea, Australia etc feared China. The US is a natural ally who would be fair and dependably defend against China's belligerence. We had a large market that can consume their goods. So therefore, we provided an alternative where they will be less reliant on China for wealth. China after all used that dependance to bully each of their neighbors. So they thought. We quickly pulled the rug from under them by electing Trump and rejecting TPP. They were left defenseless against a much bigger neighbor. We were no longer dependable. Biden would not achieve the same cooperation as friends were harder to galvanize. He managed to pull a much smaller military cooperation with S. Korea, Japan, Australia, and UK. Today, we are left friendless. We managed to antagonize the entire world but for a few autocrats. China is now the good guy. We are clearly the aggressor....leading to...

3. We no longer hold the moral high ground or the trust.

China clearly is violating the Uyghur's human rights with their concentration camps. They don't value individual rights and have locked political opponents. Yet despite that, the US, long champions of liberal ideals (individual freedom, self determination, etc) is now in the business of violating human rights. We are unstable. Capital is now flowing out of our country because we are not trustworthy or reliable.

4. China's leadership view our system as self destructive and decadent.

Jack Ma recently remarked that we invested in China and made trillions. Yet, where did we use that money, he asked. In wars. And that cherry on top? We elected an incompetent moron in Trump.

5. Their political system.

Clearly they are authoritarian. Yet they had to pull back after zero covid pushed their citizens to protest the economic damage. Surely this trade war will hurt them as much as it will hurt us. What trump is doing is giving them this 'circle the wagon' around that national pride.

Nationalism is a powerful force. The current “leadership” of the U.S. either doesn’t get it or doesn’t care. There is a thread on Democratic Underground that has a video of a discussion of Machiavelli and the concept of incompetence with rulers. Incompetent rulers will claim only they can solve a problem and they will fill the places of advisors with even more incompetent sycophants.

In addition, we have a electorate in which there are enough people willing to believe the incompetent because they believe in simplistic solutions put forth by the narcissistic incompetent.

We have government by incompetents.

 

[Optimus Prime]

US chocolate prices surge amid soaring cocoa costs and tariffs

Price of cocoa – chocolate’s key ingredient – has climbed over past year and tariffs on imports will keep prices high

www.theguardian.com

 

[Optimus Prime]

DHL to suspend global shipments of over $800 to US consumers | CNN Business

DHL Express, a division of Germany’s Deutsche Post, said it would suspend global business-to-consumer shipments worth over $800 to individuals in the United States from April 21, as US customs regulatory changes have lengthened clearance.

www.cnn.com

 

[UriUT]

Nationalism is a powerful force. The current “leadership” of the U.S. either doesn’t get it or doesn’t care. There is a thread on Democratic Underground that has a video of a discussion of Machiavelli and the concept of incompetence with rulers. Incompetent rulers will claim only they can solve a problem and they will fill the places of advisors with even more incompetent sycophants.

In addition, we have a electorate in which there are enough people willing to believe the incompetent because they believe in simplistic solutions put forth by the narcissistic incompetent.

We have government by incompetents.

I think what you mean is that these fascists can't understand that other countries too can use nationalism to empower them. I linked a video essay from ryan chapman about fascism/nazism. I can know the elements of fascism. Though, Chapman through his political science understanding of the genesis of fascism and it's use of the myth of a once great nation in fascist movements really shined a light on maga. We can ask a maga when America was great, but we won't get a consistent answer. This mythical idea of greatness is what drives the hyper-nationalism in fascism.

What makes your point dangerous, right, is that hyper-nationalism would inevitably lead to conflict. Nationalism in itself can be innocuous. We can be proud of our heritage, culture, history, etc. But what drives fascism is this idea of being better than the other nation. Mussolini found Ethiopians to be inferior; therefore their land is meant for Italians. We know of Hitler's ambition. We are now going through a process whereby immigrants of latin america are deemed unworthy and should be rejected. This will likely expand further. India's nationalism is on the rise. What happens when China's nationalist ambition collides with India's? LOL. What happens when the moron pushes America's nationalism against China's?

Anyway, your point on incompetence can be a counterpoint against china standing strong. Assuming that the current path would soil Trump's grip on power, if China gives Trump a small win, they can ensure that he stays in power. It's a perfect move, imho. That would continue to corrupt our system and our hegemony. The world would de-dollarize and be less dependent on the American economy. I'll find the article one day and post it...the world relies on American consumption as the driver of global gdp. Trump is actively shifting this model and Americans will feel inflation brought about by the de-dollarization. We buy goods for pennies on the dollar while the world buys high from us. Standard of living will not be the same for Americans.

 

[efil4]

Anyway, your point on incompetence can be a counterpoint against china standing strong. Assuming that the current path would soil Trump's grip on power, if China gives Trump a small win, they can ensure that he stays in power. It's a perfect move, imho. That would continue to corrupt our system and our hegemony. The world would de-dollarize and be less dependent on the American economy. I'll find the article one day and post it...the world relies on American consumption as the driver of global gdp. Trump is actively shifting this model and Americans will feel inflation brought about by the de-dollarization. We buy goods for pennies on the dollar while the world buys high from us. Standard of living will not be the same for Americans.

To add- China, in particular, runs a "long game" - they arent particularly worried about what they can/will accomplish in a relatively short 1-4 year span. Its forward-looking- decades in the future.
People like to claim Trump is playing chess. To use that analogy, when he is facing China, they arent playing/strategizing how THEY will move to checkmate you, THEY make moves to coerce you into moves that will checkmate yourself.
Thats the main difference between our governmental system and theirs- time. They have it as their whole country is aligned with it.

I think you even mentioned previously, they have been around for over 5000 years. They get it.

Meanwhile, quietly and without much press, they continue to make partnerships with others and if we arent careful, will awake one morning in the future to find out that China has now completely realigned the global trade and we are on the outside looking in.

And as you stated, buying those goods for pennies on the dollar, GONE. Thats when you see a revolt. ( although im sure a grand portion of the MAGA base will be spun into believing it was someone elses fault, not their dear leader )