The trade and economy mega-thread (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[CoolBrees]

Wealth has grown considerably for mostly eveveryone, especially white Boomers. Oddly, the one And only group the has lost wealth since trump took office-

“Overall, households headed by a high school graduate, a group on the front lines of Trump’s pledge to restore blue collar fortunes, lost $0.4 trillion in net worth during his time in office. Those households represent about a fourth of the total.”

Blue collar boom? College grads, baby boomers big winners in Trump's economy

U.S. President Donald Trump rolled out an eye-catching statistic in his State of the Union address Tuesday: the wealth held by the poorest half of American households increased three times as fast as the wealth held by the "1%" since he became president.

www.reuters.com

 

[wardorican]

I'm still waiting on my raise...

 

[wardorican]

I'm not totally sold on Raoul Pal and Real Vision, but this video is impressive. Shows a pretty dire future, but also a very moderate political (doesn't get into liberal vs conservative) and describes how Baby Boomers have hurt the economy, but it is not their fault. It's the nature of a massive group of people marching towards retirement. It's about 45 minutes, but worth it.

If you'd rather read it, this is the transcript.

https://www.realvision.com/rv/media/Video/d2bd2cec7ef1424ab280e5e1b84363b2/transcript

He outlines a bunch of problems and why people have gone for Trump or Sanders.. they think the system has screwed them, and most are right. He does make one point about how investing in America, like building up rural communities that have been hollowed out is a smart thing.

One area he hits is how Credit Card interest rates never dropped, despite the prime rate going down. How profits have gone up, but at the expense of labor, due to software/machinery.

And basically he's saying that Those in Gen Y (in their 30's) basically need to move back in with their parents in order to solve the family balance sheet and lack of affordable housing.

He makes a point that the fed balance sheet, inverted, matches up with the labor participation rate dropping years back.

 

[wardorican]

Another snippet..

 

[Optimus Prime]

Obama tweeted Monday morning to note the anniversary of his signing the 2009 economic stimulus package.

“Eleven years ago today, near the bottom of the worst recession in generations, I signed the Recovery Act, paving the way for more than a decade of economic growth and the longest streak of job creation in American history,” Obama tweeted, alongside a photo of his signature on the bill.

But, the Trump campaign, in a statement to Fox News, countered that the economy was recovering only because of the actions Trump took to undo his predecessor's policies.

“President Trump reversed every single failed Obama-era economic policy, and with it, reversed the floundering Obama/Biden economy,” Trump campaign national press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said. “Obama and Biden orchestrated the worst economic recovery in modern history.”

She added: “By contrast, though, deregulating, lowering taxes, and supporting free-market policies, President Trump has created the hottest economy on record, with unemployment hitting generational lows and all-time lows for African Americans, Hispanics, the disabled, veterans and many other hard-working Americans.”

“Paychecks are growing at the fastest pace in a decade and twice as fast for low- and middle-income Americans,” she continued. “It’s no wonder Democrats seek to take credit for the Trump economy after eight years of betraying blue-collar workers and inflicting pain upon the middle class as Americans everywhere suffered. But the failed days of Democrat stagnation are over, and the soaring Trump economy is here to stay.”

Trump tweeted Monday night: “Did you hear the latest con job? President Obama is now trying to take credit for the Economic Boom taking place under the Trump Administration. He had the WEAKEST recovery since the Great Depression, despite Zero Fed Rate & MASSIVE quantitative easing. NOW, best jobs numbers ever. Had to rebuild our military, which was totally depleted. Fed Rate UP, taxes and regulations WAY DOWN. If Dems won in 2016, the USA would be in big economic (Depression?) & military trouble right now. THE BEST IS YET TO COME. KEEP AMERICA GREAT!”..................

Trump fires back after Obama claims credit for economic boom: 'Con job'

 

[dtc]

Obama tweeted Monday morning to note the anniversary of his signing the 2009 economic stimulus package.

“Eleven years ago today, near the bottom of the worst recession in generations, I signed the Recovery Act, paving the way for more than a decade of economic growth and the longest streak of job creation in American history,” Obama tweeted, alongside a photo of his signature on the bill.

But, the Trump campaign, in a statement to Fox News, countered that the economy was recovering only because of the actions Trump took to undo his predecessor's policies.

“President Trump reversed every single failed Obama-era economic policy, and with it, reversed the floundering Obama/Biden economy,” Trump campaign national press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said. “Obama and Biden orchestrated the worst economic recovery in modern history.”

She added: “By contrast, though, deregulating, lowering taxes, and supporting free-market policies, President Trump has created the hottest economy on record, with unemployment hitting generational lows and all-time lows for African Americans, Hispanics, the disabled, veterans and many other hard-working Americans.”

“Paychecks are growing at the fastest pace in a decade and twice as fast for low- and middle-income Americans,” she continued. “It’s no wonder Democrats seek to take credit for the Trump economy after eight years of betraying blue-collar workers and inflicting pain upon the middle class as Americans everywhere suffered. But the failed days of Democrat stagnation are over, and the soaring Trump economy is here to stay.”

Trump tweeted Monday night: “Did you hear the latest con job? President Obama is now trying to take credit for the Economic Boom taking place under the Trump Administration. He had the WEAKEST recovery since the Great Depression, despite Zero Fed Rate & MASSIVE quantitative easing. NOW, best jobs numbers ever. Had to rebuild our military, which was totally depleted. Fed Rate UP, taxes and regulations WAY DOWN. If Dems won in 2016, the USA would be in big economic (Depression?) & military trouble right now. THE BEST IS YET TO COME. KEEP AMERICA GREAT!”..................

Trump fires back after Obama claims credit for economic boom: 'Con job'

Trump is a bonafide liar and those who believe or repeat his lies should be held to account.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Another article about the Obama tweet

Obama Tweets, Trump Freaks, Reporters Fact-Check His Lying Orange Bleats

Another day, another Trump Twitter rant aimed at trying to pump himself up and make his record look better than it really is. His latest target? Former President Barack Obama.

www.theroot.com

 

[The moose]

I'm not totally sold on Raoul Pal and Real Vision, but this video is impressive. Shows a pretty dire future, but also a very moderate political (doesn't get into liberal vs conservative) and describes how Baby Boomers have hurt the economy, but it is not their fault. It's the nature of a massive group of people marching towards retirement. It's about 45 minutes, but worth it.

If you'd rather read it, this is the transcript.

https://www.realvision.com/rv/media/Video/d2bd2cec7ef1424ab280e5e1b84363b2/transcript

He outlines a bunch of problems and why people have gone for Trump or Sanders.. they think the system has screwed them, and most are right. He does make one point about how investing in America, like building up rural communities that have been hollowed out is a smart thing.

One area he hits is how Credit Card interest rates never dropped, despite the prime rate going down. How profits have gone up, but at the expense of labor, due to software/machinery.

And basically he's saying that Those in Gen Y (in their 30's) basically need to move back in with their parents in order to solve the family balance sheet and lack of affordable housing.

He makes a point that the fed balance sheet, inverted, matches up with the labor participation rate dropping years back.

Thank you for posting that.


Has tons of info I did not know where to find.

The labor participation rate of is something I find fascinating.

With the lack of reproduction by the generations after the baby boomers we as a nation are gonna need immigration to fill jobs just like they needed it in England after WW2. The boomers are aging out of the work force fast.

 

[JimEverett]

Thank you for posting that.


Has tons of info I did not know where to find.

The labor participation rate of is something I find fascinating.

With the lack of reproduction by the generations after the baby boomers we as a nation are gonna need immigration to fill jobs just like they needed it in England after WW2. The boomers are aging out of the work force fast.

I don't think we want low skilled or semi-skilled immigrants though. The demand for that labor is declining all the time and such immigrants put pressure on the most economically vulnerable Americans.

 

[The moose]

I don't think we want low skilled or semi-skilled immigrants though. The demand for that labor is declining all the time and such immigrants put pressure on the most economically vulnerable Americans.

With sixty million or so aging out of the workforce it has to be someone.

Economically vulnerable Americans or not we have low unemployment numbers because of the staggering people aging out of the workforce more so than some great recovery.

If you look at the labor participation numbers pre crash they look nothing like that now.

Yeah this is where the wages should go thru the roof because of limited potential employees yet it has not.

 

[JimEverett]

I am curious as to why the labor participation rate is important.

If you look at the numbers right now - the population of the USA is 327.2 million. The total number of people employed is 164.606 million (http://www.dlt.ri.gov/lmi/laus/us/usadj.htm). That means there is 1 person working for every 1.98 person living in the country. The participation rate is 63.4% (https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm)

In 2000 the population of the country was 282.2 million. The total number of people employed was 142.267 million. That means there was 1 person working for every 1.98 person living in the country. The participation rate was 67.3%.

I think I did the math right - although I am not good with this sort of stuff, so maybe I made a big error - or don't know what I am talking about.

But if I did the numbers right, it seems to me the more important figure would be the ratio of people working to the total number of people living in the country. The participation rate seems rather irrelevant to the point about people supporting the economy.

 

[wardorican]

I am curious as to why the labor participation rate is important.

If you look at the numbers right now - the population of the USA is 327.2 million. The total number of people employed is 164.606 million (http://www.dlt.ri.gov/lmi/laus/us/usadj.htm). That means there is 1 person working for every 1.98 person living in the country. The participation rate is 63.4% (https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm)

In 2000 the population of the country was 282.2 million. The total number of people employed was 142.267 million. That means there was 1 person working for every 1.98 person living in the country. The participation rate was 67.3%.

I think I did the math right - although I am not good with this sort of stuff, so maybe I made a big error - or don't know what I am talking about.

But if I did the numbers right, it seems to me the more important figure would be the ratio of people working to the total number of people living in the country. The participation rate seems rather irrelevant to the point about people supporting the economy.

Participation rate is based on Adults.

Adults not "participating" in the economy usually fall into two camps.. those who retired and those who are either discouraged from working or just not interested in working.

 

[wardorican]

Thank you for posting that.


Has tons of info I did not know where to find.

The labor participation rate of is something I find fascinating.

With the lack of reproduction by the generations after the baby boomers we as a nation are gonna need immigration to fill jobs just like they needed it in England after WW2. The boomers are aging out of the work force fast.

No. Gen Z is way bigger than the Boomers, and millennials are almost as big. And you still have Gen X working. Just need their wages to kick up.

 

[wardorican]

I am curious as to why the labor participation rate is important.

If you look at the numbers right now - the population of the USA is 327.2 million. The total number of people employed is 164.606 million (http://www.dlt.ri.gov/lmi/laus/us/usadj.htm). That means there is 1 person working for every 1.98 person living in the country. The participation rate is 63.4% (https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm)

In 2000 the population of the country was 282.2 million. The total number of people employed was 142.267 million. That means there was 1 person working for every 1.98 person living in the country. The participation rate was 67.3%.

I think I did the math right - although I am not good with this sort of stuff, so maybe I made a big error - or don't know what I am talking about.

But if I did the numbers right, it seems to me the more important figure would be the ratio of people working to the total number of people living in the country. The participation rate seems rather irrelevant to the point about people supporting the economy.

Down and down we go: the falling U.S. labor force participation rate : Monthly Labor Review: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Major causes of the labor force participation decline in the United States.

www.bls.gov

 

[JimEverett]

I should have been clearer. I was asking why the participation rate would be important on the issue of having enough workers to support the economy - sort of continuing the line of discussion about immigration.

If we have 1 worker for every 1.98 who live here with a participation rate of 67.3% in 2000, and
1 worker for every 1.98 who lives here with a participation rate of 63.4% currently, then the participation rate seems rather immaterial to that discussion.

 

[wardorican]

I should have been clearer. I was asking why the participation rate would be important on the issue of having enough workers to support the economy - sort of continuing the line of discussion about immigration.

If we have 1 worker for every 1.98 who live here with a participation rate of 67.3% in 2000, and
1 worker for every 1.98 who lives here with a participation rate of 63.4% currently, then the participation rate seems rather immaterial to that discussion.

Well, I think Moose is wrong about the generational issue (that I pointed out with the graphic), so I think his point was that not enough workers to support the retired (Social Security), and wages being stagnant, would require more workers (making lower wages) to make up the difference and keep the economy churning.

I think higher wages and "better jobs" will fix that, along with raising the maximum cap of earnings that can be taxed for SS. $137,700 seems a bit low. Why is SS tax a non-progressive tax?

 

[Beach Friends]

Trump is a bonafide liar and those who believe or repeat his lies should be held to account.

Who is your man to do that, Mayor Pete?

 

[The moose]

No. Gen Z is way bigger than the Boomers, and millennials are almost as big. And you still have Gen X working. Just need their wages to kick up.

Considering the baby boomers at the oldest are what in their 70s and have been dropping for years to Vietnam, drugs, drinking, and just plain accidents they are still friggin huge.

I am a x er and we are dropping. Been to four funerals in the last six months for guys that all lived a bit too hard.

The gen z should be a huge number because they are counting that group of people for 23 years and counting. 8 years longer than the previous two.

I could see how you would think that the millennials are a huge group of young people heck a quarter of the population but so are the boomers still with millions and millions of deaths.

I have a neighbor she has been retired forever. She is 88. So I am sure she gets the max as check so like 1400 a month or so.
So for almost a quarter of her life she has been retired. She has had both knees replaced and a hip on the the taxpayers and other assorted stuff. The job she retired from was working as a grocery clerk and never earned over 5 buck an hour in her life. It is safe to say she got at least 90 times what she paid in considering her months gross was about 800 dollars at the highest a month and surgery is far from cheap.

Now you tell me how we make that work? When we have 60 plus million retired people getting hundreds of thousands in surgery and checks the math does not work.

Now first I love miss Rose give her whatever she needs. One of the best days I ever had was when the neighbors ripped the ramp off of the front of her house. We all had a BBQ made it a party. She gets around great now.

Oh and the jobs that are gonna be available are taking care of the boomers and those jobs pay crap.