Biden Tracker (3 Viewers)

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    ……..They came up with 13 true/false questions and a decision rule: if six or more keys went against the White House party, it would lose. If fewer than six went against it, it would win. These are the 13 keys, as summarised by AU’s website:


    1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

    2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

    3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

    4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

    5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

    6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.


    7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

    8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

    9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

    10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

    11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

    12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.


    13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero……

    He is likely to make his pronouncement on the 2024 presidential election in early August. He notes that Biden already has the incumbency key in his favour and, having crushed token challengers in the Democratic primary, has the contest key too.

    “That’s two keys off the top. That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”…….

     
    This woman predicts that in Nov. of 2024, 60% of the black vote will go to Trump.
    She says she and others are done with Joe Biden
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    Hear her out if you wish...

    This a logical follow up to my post above..
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    I realize this thread is the "Biden tracker" but the two posts were so logically linked. I'll cease from this point on and revert to Trump threads for any other related content.
     
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    This woman predicts that in Nov. of 2024, 60% of the black vote will go to Trump.
    She says she and others are done with Joe Biden
    *
    *
    Hear her out if you wish...

    NEW YORK (AP) — Donald Trump says he wants to hold a major campaign event at New York’s Madison Square Garden featuring Black hip-hop artists and athletes.

    Aides speak of Trump making appearances in Chicago, Detroit and Atlanta with leaders of color and realigning American politics by flipping Democratic constituencies.

    But five months before the first general election votes are cast, the former president’s campaign has little apparent organization to show for its ambitious plans.

    His campaign removed its point person for coalitions and has not announced a replacement. The Republican Party’s minority outreach offices across the country have been shuttered and replaced by businesses that include a check-cashing store, an ice cream shop and a sex-toy store.

    Campaign officials acknowledge they are weeks away from rolling out any targeted programs.

    The presumptive Republican presidential nominee has struggled to navigate a messy transition into the November election, plagued by staffing issues, personal legal troubles and the “Make America Great Again” movement’s disdain for “ identity politics.”

    There are signs of frustration on the ground, where Republicans believe Trump has a real opportunity to cut into Democratic President Joe Biden’s advantages with voters of color……

     
    President Biden’s administration is delaying the menthol cigarette ban amid widespread opposition.

    In the announcement made on Friday, Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerragave no timeline, only saying only that the administration would take more time to consider feedback.

    “This rule has garnered historic attention and the public comment period has yielded an immense amount of feedback, including from various elements of the civil rights and criminal justice movement,” Mr Becerra said.

    “It’s clear that there are still more conversations to have, and that will take significantly more time.”

    The announcement is another setback for Food and Drug Administration officials, who drafted the ban and predicted it would prevent hundreds of thousands of smoking-related deaths over 40 years, the Associated Press reported.

    More than 11 per cent of US adults smoke, with rates roughly even between white and Black people. But about 80 per cent of Black smokers smoke menthol, which the FDA says masks the harshness of smoking, making it easier to start and harder to quit. Also, most teenagers who smoke cigarettes prefer menthols.

    Dozens of meetings were held by the White House with groups in opposition to the ban, including civil rights organizers, law enforcement officials and small business owners, most of whom have financial ties to tobacco companies.

    For decades, tobacco companies focused on menthol advertising and promotions in Black communities, sponsoring music festivals and neighbourhood events.

    Industry documents released via litigation also show companies viewed menthol cigarettes as a good “starter product” because they were more palatable to teens, the Associated Press reported.……..


     
    I just created this in case it is useful...
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