Iowa Caucuses (2 Viewers)

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    JimEverett

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    Anyone have any predictions?

    If I had to put money on it, I would pick Sanders as winning.


    But there will be more stories than just who wins. IMO - For Warren, Mayor Pete, and Klobuchar it could be feast or famine. A distant 5th or even 4th could effectively end a campaign. Obviously a strong 3rd, and certainly anything higher will provide a huge boost.
    I think Warren might be best positioned to withstand a bad night given she has NH coming up next.
     
    I’ve skipped a few pages, but they really, really flubbed this.
     
    This looks extremely bad and plays very well into the republican argument that democrats cannot run things properly.
     
    Disclaimer: I'm not a conspiracy theorist.

    BUT IF I WAS

    First, Iowa's "gold standard" of pre-caucus polls goes unreleased because a single Pete Buttigieg supporter alleges that a pollster left his name out of a list and mispronounced his name, when the results were going to be these (as confirmed by 538):



    Biden 13%!!!!!! Mayor Pete third! That would seem to be a big yikes for the DNC, right?

    And then the caucuses happen, and it looks like Biden just takes an absolutely devastating L -- will he even finish 4th over Klobuchar when the final results are posted? -- but it turns out the caucus folks decided to rely on an untested app made by a company called "Shadow" which crashes and is unable to report the results. And the company which made the bad app completely coincidentally happens to also be a vendor for the Pete Buttigieg campaign!



    And then Buttigieg starts declaring himself the winner without any results while the Biden campaign is given a reason to challenge the results as illegitimate!

    Sure, either today or in the next few days Bernie Sanders will be announced as the winner in Iowa. But instead of getting the usual media boost from winning, the media will focus on Mayor Pete's "victory" (even if it's not, you know, the first place finisher kind of winning), and how Biden gets a mulligan (even though people in Iowa just flat out didn't support him), and somehow this is all great news for Republican Mike Bloomberg who will spare us all from the Evils of Socialism! The Sanders election win, just like the poll predicting the election win, will effectively be nullified.

    I'm willing to accept that this is all just staggering incompetence and bad faith, but the optics aren't great. At least no conspiracy theorists will pick up on any of this and attempt to weaponize it against the entire Democratic party, like say this...

     
    EmBeeFiveOhFour said:
    Disclaimer: I'm not a conspiracy theorist.

    BUT IF I WAS

    First, Iowa's "gold standard" of pre-caucus polls goes unreleased because a single Pete Buttigieg supporter alleges that a pollster left his name out of a list and mispronounced his name, when the results were going to be these (as confirmed by 538):



    Biden 13%!!!!!! Mayor Pete third! That would seem to be a big yikes for the DNC, right?

    And then the caucuses happen, and it looks like Biden just takes an absolutely devastating L -- will he even finish 4th over Klobuchar when the final results are posted? -- but it turns out the caucus folks decided to rely on an untested app made by a company called "Shadow" which crashes and is unable to report the results. And the company which made the bad app completely coincidentally happens to also be a vendor for the Pete Buttigieg campaign!



    And then Buttigieg starts declaring himself the winner without any results while the Biden campaign is given a reason to challenge the results as illegitimate!

    Sure, either today or in the next few days Bernie Sanders will be announced as the winner in Iowa. But instead of getting the usual media boost from winning, the media will focus on Mayor Pete's "victory" (even if it's not, you know, the first place finisher kind of winning), and how Biden gets a mulligan (even though people in Iowa just flat out didn't support him), and somehow this is all great news for Republican Mike Bloomberg who will spare us all from the Evils of Socialism! The Sanders election win, just like the poll predicting the election win, will effectively be nullified.

    I'm willing to accept that this is all just staggering incompetence and bad faith, but the optics aren't great. At least no conspiracy theorists will pick up on any of this and attempt to weaponize it against the entire Democratic party, like say this...

    Click to expand...

    I think human error, lack of planning, etc. are the most likely culprits. Having said that, it is understanable that some people might see all this as a push against Bernie - especially given what happened 4 years ago.

    I brought it up last night - but I was sort of reading between the lines of what I had heard some conservative commentators saying. So there is also that element - people trying to promote discord among the Democrats.

    One thing about what you wrote, though - is Buttigieg more of an "establishment" type? Maybe inherent in this idea is that he is angling for a VP position? Or just really anti-Bernie?
     
    JimEverett said:
    One thing about what you wrote, though - is Buttigieg more of an "establishment" type? Maybe inherent in this idea is that he is angling for a VP position? Or just really anti-Bernie?
    Click to expand...

    Biden was very clearly the old line "establishment" choice but he's flaming out. Buttigieg started the race as a complete unknown but I would put him in that category based on his support from the big money donors (who Biden is now also struggling with). I expect most of Biden's support to shift to Buttigieg as an alternative to Sanders or Warren.

    www.opensecrets.org

    Top Contributors, federal election data for Pete Buttigieg, 2020 cycle

    This page highlights the top contributors to Pete Buttigieg for the 2020 presidential election cycle. For more information, click through to the page.
    www.opensecrets.org www.opensecrets.org
     
    efil4 said:
    He didnt.

    And for being a homophobe, she may wanna rethink that hairdo. ;)
    Click to expand...

    Nah, I know I was being sarcastic. I can't imagine how someone could live in Iowa where the candidates have camped out for the last few months, care enough to go out and participate and still not know that.
     
    If Mayor Pete can manage to get some momentum from this he may actually have a shot at the nomination. I think his support could snowball if people start believing he can win.
     
    EmBeeFiveOhFour said:
    Biden was very clearly the old line "establishment" choice but he's flaming out. Buttigieg started the race as a complete unknown but I would put him in that category based on his support from the big money donors (who Biden is now also struggling with). I expect most of Biden's support to shift to Buttigieg as an alternative to Sanders or Warren.

    www.opensecrets.org

    Top Contributors, federal election data for Pete Buttigieg, 2020 cycle

    This page highlights the top contributors to Pete Buttigieg for the 2020 presidential election cycle. For more information, click through to the page.
    www.opensecrets.org www.opensecrets.org
    Click to expand...
    Interestingly the first 3 largest contributors to Buttigieg: Alphabet, Microsoft, and U-Cal all gave more money to Bernie. The next two - the law firm and Disney gave more money to Buttigieg and I stopped looking there.

    Anyway, if I bought into the idea of there being a big conspiracy against Bernie I would think there would be a strong push by the Party leaders to get Pete and/or Biden/Bloomberg out. Letting there be just one candidate left who is positioning himself as a moderate.
     
    TheRealTruth said:
    This looks extremely bad and plays very well into the republican argument that democrats cannot run things properly.
    Click to expand...

    I mean its hard to imagine anyone thinks either party runs things well
     
    All indicatiions right now are:

    Sanders
    Buttigieg
    Warren
    Biden

    If this holds, Biden really tanked.
     

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