Iowa Caucuses (1 Viewer)

[JimEverett]

Anyone have any predictions?

If I had to put money on it, I would pick Sanders as winning.


But there will be more stories than just who wins. IMO - For Warren, Mayor Pete, and Klobuchar it could be feast or famine. A distant 5th or even 4th could effectively end a campaign. Obviously a strong 3rd, and certainly anything higher will provide a huge boost.
I think Warren might be best positioned to withstand a bad night given she has NH coming up next.

 

[lurk]

I can't imagine how someone could live in Iowa where the candidates have camped out for the last few months, care enough to go out and participate and still not know that.

This phenomenon certainly has a "type," that's for sure.

 

[wardorican]

Disclaimer: I'm not a conspiracy theorist.

BUT IF I WAS

First, Iowa's "gold standard" of pre-caucus polls goes unreleased because a single Pete Buttigieg supporter alleges that a pollster left his name out of a list and mispronounced his name, when the results were going to be these (as confirmed by 538):



Biden 13%!!!!!! Mayor Pete third! That would seem to be a big yikes for the DNC, right?

And then the caucuses happen, and it looks like Biden just takes an absolutely devastating L -- will he even finish 4th over Klobuchar when the final results are posted? -- but it turns out the caucus folks decided to rely on an untested app made by a company called "Shadow" which crashes and is unable to report the results. And the company which made the bad app completely coincidentally happens to also be a vendor for the Pete Buttigieg campaign!



And then Buttigieg starts declaring himself the winner without any results while the Biden campaign is given a reason to challenge the results as illegitimate!

Sure, either today or in the next few days Bernie Sanders will be announced as the winner in Iowa. But instead of getting the usual media boost from winning, the media will focus on Mayor Pete's "victory" (even if it's not, you know, the first place finisher kind of winning), and how Biden gets a mulligan (even though people in Iowa just flat out didn't support him), and somehow this is all great news for Republican Mike Bloomberg who will spare us all from the Evils of Socialism! The Sanders election win, just like the poll predicting the election win, will effectively be nullified.

I'm willing to accept that this is all just staggering incompetence and bad faith, but the optics aren't great. At least no conspiracy theorists will pick up on any of this and attempt to weaponize it against the entire Democratic party, like say this...

Anyone check the FEC site? If that is true, did the other campaigns have to pay for software usage. That's a typical license fee for specialized software for a company.

 

[coldseat]

Why is everybody so surprised and outraged? This literally happens ever 4 years in Iowa.

The problem is more the antiquated caucus system. For all of it's personal contact with candidates and involvement from the public, it's a terribly antiquated system and always has problem.

The stupid decision by the Iowa DNC to test out a new app during this years caucus just added to all of the normal issues.

I support Bernie and I'm fine if he ends up winning the nomination, but his loyal supporters need to take a breath and realize the constant complaining and alienating turn a lot of people off to him. We all know he got screwed 4 years ago and we also know that corporate America is strongly set against him or anybody that wants to increase their taxes. But you can't advocate for your favorite candidate by turning off other democrats that you will eventually need to support him in the general, if he ends up winning.

Just like there was a progressive depression in voting during the general for Hillary, there could be a moderate depression for Bernie if they are so turned off by him (or his supporters) they decide to stay home. Then we get the same shirt show as 4 years ago. Ultimately, it doesn't matter how progressive (or moderate) your candidate is if they don't get elected. And the difference in policy between the two (progressive or moderate) isn't going to be as stark or different as between a Trump or Democratic president, as they'll both (progressive and moderates) have to contend with congress. So whether it's Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg or Warren that is the democratic nominee, be sure to support them and vote in the general. They are all a better choices than Trump.

 

[Heathen]

This is some shady s***

And folks have the nerve to get angry when certain voters question party integrity.

 

[samiam5211]

Biden may finish below Klobauchar. If the votes left are from the northern part of the state she could pick up enough to pass Biden.

Biden didn’t expect to do well, but if he ends up fifth he will have failed to meet even the lowest of expectations.

His money will run out pretty fast if that happens.

 

[Nebaghead]

This is some shady s***

And folks have the nerve to get angry when certain voters question party integrity.

Incompetent would be a better description.

 

[Heathen]

Incompetent would be a better description.

That too. I'm not a conspiracy type, but this whole Shadow app thing is bizarre.

 

[Nebaghead]

That too. I'm not a conspiracy type, but this whole Shadow app thing is bizarre.

They are manually counting the votes now. It was an app failure. They tracked the votes three ways and when they don’t match they go to the manual method.
Over a month ago several counties were reporting issues with the app. Buttigieg had the most to gain with quick results.

 

[Heathen]

Thank goodness they've given up using it in Nevada

 

[JimEverett]

Biden benefits greatly from the poor organization of the Iowa Democratic Party. Now with SOTU tonight and acquittal tomorrow these results will not get anywhere close to the exposure they would have had the results come in last night at a reasonable time.

If I were in Buttigieg camp I would be especially mad - especially if the results stay roughly the same.

 

[Nebaghead]

Biden benefits greatly from the poor organization of the Iowa Democratic Party. Now with SOTU tonight and acquittal tomorrow these results will not get anywhere close to the exposure they would have had the results come in last night at a reasonable time.

If I were in Buttigieg camp I would be especially mad - especially if the results stay roughly the same.

If Biden doesn’t get top 3 in NH and win SC he is done. The flub does help him but I think there will be enough negative from it to end his run. Especially if he loses to Kloubacar. Buttigeg is getting non stop coverage before the SOTU.

 

[Lazybones]

That Pete worker handled it very well.

She did, kinda. When she brings her son into it, what do you think was going on in his head? I would have loved to be in the car on that ride home.

 

[JimEverett]

Buttigeg is getting non stop coverage before the SOTU.

Maybe on cable news - but that reaches a very small amount of people.

The bump Buttigieg could have gotten from a win or a very close 2d place finish will be greatly diminished due to the problems.

 

[MT15]

I heard the Nevada DNC is also planning to use the same system and APP

I think that was a rumor and Nevada said today that was false.

 

[Woohoosaint]

 

[Nebaghead]

Sheesh, Bernie rep on CNN won’t answer any questions. I hate when surrogates won’t answer the questions. Happens from all the surrogates from both sides.
question: do you think the election is being rigged
Answer: I think the economy is rigged.

 

[MT15]

I’m surprised that Pete did so well, and I think Biden should bow out now.

 

[Nebaghead]

I’m surprised that Pete did so well, and I think Biden should bow out now.

Biden didn’t expect to do well in Iowa but I think he was hoping 3rd or a Super close 4th.