Iowa Caucuses (1 Viewer)

[JimEverett]

Anyone have any predictions?

If I had to put money on it, I would pick Sanders as winning.


But there will be more stories than just who wins. IMO - For Warren, Mayor Pete, and Klobuchar it could be feast or famine. A distant 5th or even 4th could effectively end a campaign. Obviously a strong 3rd, and certainly anything higher will provide a huge boost.
I think Warren might be best positioned to withstand a bad night given she has NH coming up next.

 

[BobE]

 

[Port City JJ]

Maker of glitchy Iowa caucus app has Democratic Party ties

WASHINGTON (AP) — The little-known technology start-up under scrutiny after the meltdown of the Iowa Democratic caucuses on Monday was founded little more than a year ago by veterans of Hillary Clinton’s failed 2016 presidential campaign who had presented themselves as gurus of campaigning in the di

apnews.com

Let's wrap it all back around to Hillary to get everyone fired up!





So Buttigieg's senior strategist is married to the lady who founded the parent company. A parent company that provides lots of different software solutions aimed at promoting Democratic candidates and defeating Trump. I am not ready to say that Buttigieg gamed the Iowa caucuses by paying off the company for the tune of $42.5k. I would like to think it costs a lot more than that to buy an election, but I am probably wrong.

If the CEO is married to a senior strategist in the campaign for Mayor Cheat you think the company has to be paid off?

Isnt that some sort of conflict of interest?

 

[EmBeeFiveOhFour]

Update: it's getting even dumber.

 

[CoolBrees]

At this point, I think the Dems position on Bernie is so well known that the only type of subversion they could get away with would be smaller, less blatant. Like leak things like he said women cant win stuff like that.

Full on sabotage would cause a rift that would not be reparable in one or even two election cycles. But there has never been a group that is less capable of doing the logical thing.

I mean if there was ever was a time to scream “my account wuz hacked!” It was with this whole app fiasco

 

[samiam5211]

Update: it's getting even dumber.

It will be interesting to take the sample of results released last night, to the sample of the ones that came out after.

If the 35% that remained all trend in one direction and it is significantly inconsistent with what was released in the first batch, they are going to have to overcome the presumption that precincts were selectively delayed.

 

[Nebaghead]

Oh I totally agree the dem party doesn’t want Bernie, but he was always going to win Iowa. The Democratic Party wouldn’t have bothered trying to rig that primary. Bernie doing as expected wouldn’t cause them any problems.

Why are the conservatives (I mean the posters on this board) so worried about Bernie. Its the narrative that is wanted. The evil DNC not letting Bernie win. If they were that powerful, they would find ways to keep him out. I like Bernie, he has some areas that he will do well with and there are going to be some challenges. Beating the DNC isn't one of them. If anything being the underdog helps him. This week he and Buttigeg have gotten good coverage. The Biden coverage is terrible. My guess is Biden doesn't place top 3 in NH, CNN will be dancing on his grave.

 

[samiam5211]

Why are the conservatives (I mean the posters on this board) so worried about Bernie. Its the narrative that is wanted. The evil DNC not letting Bernie win. If they were that powerful, they would find ways to keep him out. I like Bernie, he has some areas that he will do well with and there are going to be some challenges. Beating the DNC isn't one of them. If anything being the underdog helps him. This week he and Buttigeg have gotten good coverage. The Biden coverage is terrible. My guess is Biden doesn't place top 3 in NH, CNN will be dancing on his grave.

Maybe it is a narrative being pushed by Russian bots.... or Wall Street .... or Reddit?

Society is not adapting fast enough to the environment being created by the technology we create. Soon, we will be unable to realize the difference between an authentic video and a created one.

The institutions that create the foundation of our society are not designed to deal with the Information Age, and neither are our minds.

There are things happening to our society that we don’t understand well enough to even notice. We notice some if they symptoms but it is a feeling that we don’t really have words to describe.

We can all feel that something is out of control, but how can we talk about something that we don’t know how to describe.

 

[Heathen]

Update: 1,624 of 1,765 precincts reporting in IA.

Sanders with 42,027 votes, Pete close behind with 40,823

Both have 11 pledged delegates

If this is a one off thing (waiting damn near a week to get the final count), Iowa will be the story of the year, and not for good reason.

 

[BobE]

 

[Intensesaint]

Why are the conservatives (I mean the posters on this board) so worried about Bernie. Its the narrative that is wanted. The evil DNC not letting Bernie win. If they were that powerful, they would find ways to keep him out. I like Bernie, he has some areas that he will do well with and there are going to be some challenges. Beating the DNC isn't one of them. If anything being the underdog helps him. This week he and Buttigeg have gotten good coverage. The Biden coverage is terrible. My guess is Biden doesn't place top 3 in NH, CNN will be dancing on his grave.

Because we want to see Sanders win the nomination, because he is so polar opposite to Trump it will be a shoe in to win. Moderates won't vote for Sanders extreme policies. Somebody like Biden, as creepy as he is, would be able to garner a lot more of the moderate vote than Sanders. It's a given that Sanders will get all the extreme fringe left, it's about who can get more moderates.

 

[Heathen]

I can guarantee that Republicans wanting Sanders to win the nomination is not a smart move on their part. But many people also think Clinton was a good candidate to take on Trump, which is unfathomable to me. I don't blame them for their misguided confidence, though. They've never seen someone so progressive in the election. They don't know what to expect, so they'll declare it an easy win. As they would do with any candidate anyway, tbh.

The easiest road for a Trump victory would be another bland, middle of the road Democrat that doesn't excite the base and doesn't get anyone excited to go to the polls.

In debates, Sanders wouldn't cry about Trump being a bully all day or keep bringing up tweets. That's a sad, losing strategy. He'd hammer him on policy, which Trump knows he's in a weak spot on. And all Trump would be left with would be repeating "but you're a socialist" which only the most dullard of the population would think is a good retort.

That's what we need. Overwhelm Trump again and again on his own poor record and drive home our better policy. It's simple and is what the American people want. Leave the mean tweet pouting to CNN.

 

[dtc]

The granddaddy of all polls - the Seltzer poll - doesn't get published, and now this.

Might be the beginning of the end of the Iowa caucuses playing such a prominent role.

Wouldn't that be wonderful?

From there, maybe we could get back to some semblance of logic and reapportion House seats, as well.

 

[Nebaghead]

Because we want to see Sanders win the nomination, because he is so polar opposite to Trump it will be a shoe in to win. Moderates won't vote for Sanders extreme policies. Somebody like Biden, as creepy as he is, would be able to garner a lot more of the moderate vote than Sanders. It's a given that Sanders will get all the extreme fringe left, it's about who can get more moderates.

That's what Democrats thought when Trump got the nomination in 2016. This will be an easy win for anyone they put on the ballot. We know how that worked out.

The election always comes down to the swing states and energy. Sanders has polled well in the swing states and he brings a ton of energy. If the younger voters show up, the election won't be close. That is a big if.

 

[EmBeeFiveOhFour]

I can guarantee that Republicans wanting Sanders to win the nomination is not a smart move on their part. But many people also think Clinton was a good candidate to take on Trump, which is unfathomable to me. I don't blame them for their misguided confidence, though. They've never seen someone so progressive in the election. They don't know what to expect, so they'll declare it an easy win. As they would do with any candidate anyway, tbh.

The easiest road for a Trump victory would be another bland, middle of the road Democrat that doesn't excite the base and doesn't get anyone excited to go to the polls.

In debates, Sanders wouldn't cry about Trump being a bully all day or keep bringing up tweets. That's a sad, losing strategy. He'd hammer him on policy, which Trump knows he's in a weak spot on. And all Trump would be left with would be repeating "but you're a socialist" which only the most dullard of the population would think is a good retort.

That's what we need. Overwhelm Trump again and again on his own poor record and drive home our better policy. It's simple and is what the American people want. Leave the mean tweet pouting to CNN.

We had a very, very, very long thread on the football board about the GOP primaries in 2016 and how it was so great that Trump was winning the nomination because he would destroy the Republican party and couldn't possibly win in the general election because he was unpopular and just a uniquely shirtty and hated person. Remember when people were going to vote in the primaries for Trump to sow chaos? And then, after he won the nomination and everything more or less played out as expected in the general election, he won the electoral college anyway because it turns out the Democrat strategy of lining up behind an unpopular and flawed candidate of their own whose main message by the end was "hey, I'm not that other butt crevasse" was not good enough to motivate disaffected/disenfranchised voters to show up. Whoopsie!

If the GOP strategy is to run back the same thing on their end with a message of "lol, that crazy guy wants you to have health care and free college and save the environment and not go to war, what an butt crevasse" and depend on Sanders being "unpopular" and his message not resonating with working class voters then good luck with that. I think Trump would fare better against a focus-grouped empty suit who is for whatever his ex-Goldman Sachs advisers tell him to be for like Mayor Pete.

 

[SystemShock]

We had a very, very, very long thread on the football board about the GOP primaries in 2016 and how it was so great that Trump was winning the nomination because he would destroy the Republican party and couldn't possibly win in the general election because he was unpopular and just a uniquely shirtty and hated person. Remember when people were going to vote in the primaries for Trump to sow chaos? And then, after he won the nomination and everything more or less played out as expected in the general election, he won the electoral college anyway because it turns out the Democrat strategy of lining up behind an unpopular and flawed candidate of their own whose main message by the end was "hey, I'm not that other butt crevasse" was not good enough to motivate disaffected/disenfranchised voters to show up. Whoopsie!

If the GOP strategy is to run back the same thing on their end with a message of "lol, that crazy guy wants you to have health care and free college and save the environment and not go to war, what an butt crevasse" and depend on Sanders being "unpopular" and his message not resonating with working class voters then good luck with that. I think Trump would fare better against a focus-grouped empty suit who is for whatever his ex-Goldman Sachs advisers tell him to be for like Mayor Pete.

I don't think Trump won because the Democrats lined up behind an unpopular and flawed candidate. Clinton won the popular vote, after all.

To me, it was a combination of factors that made Clinton lose the election:

- The Trump campaign focused on the majority of the population, while the Clinton campaign focused on a small chunk of the population.

- Trump mopped the floor with Clinton on that one last debate. It wasn't the issues, though. Clinton showed a complete lack of strength. There were so many innocent softballs Trump threw at her, and she just didn't have the wits to attack even playing into Trump's hand.

-The Comey announcement about the emails, so close to election day.

- The lack of support shown by Sanders, who seemed he needed to be coerced to endorse Clinton, and when he did, seemed to do so begrudgingly.

- The Sanders supporters who threw a tantrum and didn't show up to vote.

Now, this time around, sure, Sanders will shout "free healthcare" and "free education", but eventually, he will have to touch on other subjects, which are unpopular with the working class, like taxing the middle class, gun bans, not only not going to war but gutting the military, the many woke subjects...

And whoever wins the Democratic nomination, will also has to content with the general public's perception of the past 4 years.

 

[Maxp]

I think both Sanders and Mayor Pete would make good candidates to run against Trump. They both could stand up to Trump's be belligerence and hammer him on policy.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[tomwaits]

The Democrats are not in a good position against Trump with these candidates.

Bernie gets the nomination - Trump can really hammer him on the socialist thing and bring up quotes from Bernie such as his support of communist bread lines. The far left socialism thing plays fairly well with Dems, but I don't see it winning nationally. Warren and woke Twitter don't help here either with her claim that he said a woman can't be president. That section of the party while still preferring Bernie over Trump, now has a little less passion to go vote for the misogynist Bernie.

Warren gets the nomination - I think she is mostly sunk. Putting out her "plan" and then retracting is not a good move. She is isolating the Bernie supporters with her "a woman can't be president" claim that from what I have seen most people don't think actually happened. Trump will bring up her fake Indian, I was fired for being pregnant, my father was a laborer and other lies constantly along with her massive spending increase plans. She is also not very charismatic.

Biden gets the nomination - Not looking like this will happen, but would be hilarious to see CNN and MSNBC try to act like the nutty things he says are perfectly normal. Trump will constantly bring up the bizarre statements and child sniffing actions of Biden. Biden does not handle adversity well at all seeing how he has difficulty even answering friendly media questions about Hunter and corruption. Trump will continue to push the Ukraine Hunter corruption narrative forward.

Mayor Pete gets the nomination - He seems too timid to be able to stand up against Trump, but I think he may have the best shot at the Dems winning. I don't think him being gay will hurt him much as mostly people who would support Trump anyway would be the ones that wouldn't vote for him, but it will have some impact.

Contested primary / Brokered convention - DNC won't give it to Bernie if at all possible and this will create a break in the party. Bernie supporters don't show up in force because they will feel cheated again.