Iowa Caucuses (1 Viewer)

[JimEverett]

Anyone have any predictions?

If I had to put money on it, I would pick Sanders as winning.


But there will be more stories than just who wins. IMO - For Warren, Mayor Pete, and Klobuchar it could be feast or famine. A distant 5th or even 4th could effectively end a campaign. Obviously a strong 3rd, and certainly anything higher will provide a huge boost.
I think Warren might be best positioned to withstand a bad night given she has NH coming up next.

 

[insidejob]

 

[SystemShock]

If I had to put money on it, I would pick Sanders as winning.

... and your winnings will get taxed immediately.

My portfolio weeps.

 

[samiam5211]

I think Biden finishes no higher than 3rd.

Campaigns that don't have energy usually don't to well in Iowa.

Joe's campaign is about as low energy as Jeb was in 2016.

1. Sanders - His supporters are as devoted as the old Ron Paul crowd. That usually bodes well in Iowa.

2. Mayor Pete - Tonight will tell us how good a campaign he is operating. I think Pete is going to get the benefit of being the 2nd choice for more people than any other candidate.

3. Warren - She's going to split support with Sanders a bit, and she's just not been coming off well the past couple of weeks, so i think Bernie is going to siphon off more.

4. Biden - I don't think he wants to run anymore. I think he is dreading the next 9 months. He wishes Hunter wasn't such a scumbag, but he doesn't want to have his son dragged through the mud on a daily basis, even if Hunter earned it, it is still his son.


That's the order going

 

[JimEverett]

If Biden does poorly do you think it makes Bloomberg more viable?
I think it does. Probably also helps Pete a lot, but I think Bloomberg benefits the most from a poor showing by Biden tonight.

 

[insidejob]

I think Biden finishes no higher than 3rd.

Campaigns that don't have energy usually don't to well in Iowa.

Joe's campaign is about as low energy as Jeb was in 2016.

1. Sanders - His supporters are as devoted as the old Ron Paul crowd. That usually bodes well in Iowa.

2. Mayor Pete - Tonight will tell us how good a campaign he is operating. I think Pete is going to get the benefit of being the 2nd choice for more people than any other candidate.

3. Warren - She's going to split support with Sanders a bit, and she's just not been coming off well the past couple of weeks, so i think Bernie is going to siphon off more.

4. Biden - I don't think he wants to run anymore. I think he is dreading the next 9 months. He wishes Hunter wasn't such a scumbag, but he doesn't want to have his son dragged through the mud on a daily basis, even if Hunter earned it, it is still his son.


That's the order going

This is pretty much my take on it. All I know is that whoever ends up getting the nomination needs to find a way to unite all of the supporters of the other candidates and make sure to get them out to vote. None of this staying home out of protest like last time.

 

[insidejob]

If Biden does poorly do you think it makes Bloomberg more viable?
I think it does. Probably also helps Pete a lot, but I think Bloomberg benefits the most from a poor showing by Biden tonight.

Probably. I think Pete will get a lot of Biden's supporters but the ones who can't tolerate Pete being gay will go to Bloomberg simply because he's the milquetoast candidate with no really "out there" proposals for policy. (To be honest though, I haven't paid much attention to Bloomberg's actual stand on things though, so I could be way off base.)

 

[JimEverett]

Probably. I think Pete will get a lot of Biden's supporters but the ones who can't tolerate Pete being gay will go to Bloomberg simply because he's the milquetoast candidate with no really "out there" proposals for policy. (To be honest though, I haven't paid much attention to Bloomberg's actual stand on things though, so I could be way off base.)

I think Bloomberg's ad blitz in super tuesday states will put his name recognition ahead of Pete.

Bloomberg's campaign interests me simply in the horse race aspect. Its a different strategy from what we are used to.

 

[Nebaghead]

Bloomberg has a surge going on now. He is 3rd nationally. His appearing on the next debate will hurt Biden.

 

[JimEverett]

Bloomberg has a surge going on now. He is 3rd nationally. His appearing on the next debate will hurt Biden.

I think it is reasonable to assume that Sanders win Iowa, wins New Hampshire, and then wins Nevada.
Not only that - it is also not unreasonable to think Biden does relatively poorly in all 3. Even if he does not do poorly but Sanders wins then South Carolina almost becomes do or die for Biden, it may even be too late. Even before South Carolina people will be talking about if Biden is really capable and it is easy to see people who are concerned with Sanders being the nominee will be looking to Bloomberg to stop him.

 

[CoolBrees]

The one thing I will give to Bloomberg, that I can’t really see any other candidate having, is he has a storied past of getting under Trump’s skin and is more of everything trump touts: richer by far, way better businessman, white instead or orange, thin instead of pear shaped & doughy, etc etc. A bully isn’t a bully to bigger people.

That is why the Proud Boys loser leader would never fight anyone himself, only people smaller than him are children and small women.

 

[EmBeeFiveOhFour]

If the DNC really does turn to a billionaire Republican to step in and save them from their own voters, turnout in November will crater and Trump will win re-election in a landslide.

I think Bernie wins tonight, wins in New Hampshire, wins in Nevada, and ends the Biden campaign by being within 4-5 points in South Carolina. Every public appearance Biden makes at this point makes him look worse and worse. His greatest strength was being Obama's sidekick and being kept out of view for as long as possible to avoid the inevitable gaffes that are coming. Unless the party rallies around a non-Biden alternative to Sanders and does so very quickly it will be very, very difficult to avoid giving Sanders the nomination. We'll see then how much beating Trump really matters to folks like Bloomberg (spoiler alert, it won't matter if it affects their $$$ too much).

 

[Joe Okc]

Joe's campaign is about as low energy as Jeb was in 2016.

4. Biden - I don't think he wants to run anymore. I think he is dreading the next 9 months. He wishes Hunter wasn't such a scumbag, but he doesn't want to have his son dragged through the mud on a daily basis, even if Hunter earned it, it is still his son.

I think you may be on to something. I can see Biden looking out so he doesn't quit... but. He may have a long legal road ahead of him too.

 

[samiam5211]

I think Bloomberg's ad blitz in super tuesday states will put his name recognition ahead of Pete.

Bloomberg's campaign interests me simply in the horse race aspect. Its a different strategy from what we are used to.

Our current funding model means that candidates can’t afford a strategy that is too far outside the box.

Trump and Bloomberg have taken advantage of a feature of our system like only billionaires can. They can deviate from what is acceptable by the current funding sources and it makes them appear strong in a way a candidate dependent upon their donors never could. Even Bernie depends on small donors, and a bad scandal would cause them to dry up enough to end his candidacy.

Trump can grab her by the arse because he can withstand a PR nightmare and keep on trucking since he can afford his own gas.

Pushing through these type of things that would end other candidates makes them appear stronger than they really are.

 

[samiam5211]

I think you may be on to something. I can see Biden looking out so he doesn't quit... but. He may have a long legal road ahead of him too.

He will drop out as soon as he can without it seeming like it has anything to do with Hunter.

I wouldn’t doubt that Biden knowing that Hillary would have brought up Hunter during the 2016 primaries helped him decide to put off running.

 

[Taurus]

... and your winnings will get taxed immediately.

My portfolio weeps.

Didn't know you're a millionaire. Care to donate to Andrus?

 

[Taurus]

I think it is reasonable to assume that Sanders win Iowa, wins New Hampshire, and then wins Nevada.
Not only that - it is also not unreasonable to think Biden does relatively poorly in all 3. Even if he does not do poorly but Sanders wins then South Carolina almost becomes do or die for Biden, it may even be too late. Even before South Carolina people will be talking about if Biden is really capable and it is easy to see people who are concerned with Sanders being the nominee will be looking to Bloomberg to stop him.

So I saw a quote from John Kerry that he's considering a run in order to keep Sanders from "destroying the Democratic party"
John, my man, that's the whole *point*. The DNC deserves to die. It's become nothing but a money-grubbing coterie of corporate whores. They're mistrusted and reviled across the political spectrum.
The Democratic party needs to regain its standing as being foursquare and unapologetically for the little guy. Corporations and billionaires have had it all their way since 1980. It's time to push the pendulum back the other direction.
You know what I want? I want a tax plan that's described as a "giveaway to the middle class". If we have to balance it on the backs of billionaires, so effing be it.

 

[MT15]

I think you may be on to something. I can see Biden looking out so he doesn't quit... but. He may have a long legal road ahead of him too.

What legal road would Biden have, Joe?