Will “mass deportation” actually happen (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

It’s so repulsive to see people cheering for what is basically 80% the same thing as the Holocaust - different end result but otherwise very similar.

Economists have said it would tank the economy and cause inflation - notwithstanding the cost.

Is it going to actually happen or is this Build The Wall 2.0?

 

[Saint by the Bay]

They’ll still figure out a way to blame democrats

Yep, when the comet comes they will all put on their Nikes like good little cultists. They will never admit the self proclaimed Chosen One is wrong about anything.

 

[Lapaz]

Hyper? Maybe, maybe not. Inflation? You bet. So, what happens when the “everyday Americans” get hit with higher grocery prices? Who will they whine to then?

If the Fed remains independent, then it won't allow hyper-inflation, because they'll increase the interest rate until it practically shuts down the economy. It is much more likely that we'll have a recession, and possibly a depression. How bad things get will depend on how other countries react, particularly Europe. If they impose retaliatory tariffs, will Drump double-down on stupid by imposing more tariffs? How will that impact the dollar? Will people lose faith in it? Does it get so bad that the Euro becomes more appealing as a reserve? If so, we are in for high inflation, that will have to be dampened by increasing interest rates, unless Drump takes over the Fed, in which case we may end up with hyper-inflation.

 

[bird]

If the Fed remains independent, then it won't allow hyper-inflation, because they'll increase the interest rate until it practically shuts down the economy. It is much more likely that we'll have a recession, and possibly a depression. How bad things get will depend on how other countries react, particularly Europe. If they impose retaliatory tariffs, will Drump double-down on stupid by imposing more tariffs? How will that impact the dollar? Will people lose faith in it? Does it get so bad that the Euro becomes more appealing as a reserve? If so, we are in for high inflation, that will have to be dampened by increasing interest rates, unless Drump takes over the Fed, in which case we may end up with hyper-inflation.

Can’t argue. People forget what happened when Volker jacked up rates in the ‘80’s. If people think buying a house is too expensive now, wait until rates hit double digits. We bought our first house in 1986. We got a flat 10% and I was thrilled. There were people with rates up to 16%. The Reagan recession was a real thing.

Btw, I recall that it was claimed Volker killed inflation. What an incredibly stupid statement.

 

[superchuck500]

Can’t argue. People forget what happened when Volker jacked up rates in the ‘80’s. If people think buying a house is too expensive now, wait until rates hit double digits. We bought our first house in 1986. We got a flat 10% and I was thrilled. There were people with rates up to 16%. The Reagan recession was a real thing.

Btw, I recall that it was claimed Volker killed inflation. What an incredibly stupid statement.

I think the history is more complicated than that - rates were the treatment, not the illness. The inflation in the 1970s was rampant, and it resulted from tax cuts in the 1960s combined with war-time spending that otherwise had very little supervision from US economic policy. Throw in some vital shortages like gas and even dollars and you get bigly inflation . . . and there wasn't much effort to tame it.

Reagan ran on the economy and supply-side economics but jacking up rates is the conventional-economics way to lower inflation. Yes, it slows growth by definition and the Reagan Recession was real. I mean, look at K-Cars for pete's sake they were just awful.

But the rates weren't the cause, the rates were the medicine to the inflation disease - and the medicine was painful. Ultimately, I think the consensus is that raising the rates like Volcker did was the right thing to do - the criticism is that where he failed was not lowering them soon enough when he could have.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Has anyone said exactly how they are going to determine who an illegal immigrant vs legal immigrant vs naturalized citizen vs someone who's just here on vacation?

It has to be something more than 'Latino and barely speaks English', right?

Will there be anonymous tip lines set up? "I think the busboy at the restaurant we ate at last night is illegal"

I can't see how to do this in a way where people who are here legally (by whatever reason) without there being issues, at best get hassled by it or at worse caught up in it

 

[bird]

I think the history is more complicated than that - rates were the treatment, not the illness. The inflation in the 1970s was rampant, and it resulted from tax cuts in the 1960s combined with war-time spending that otherwise had very little supervision from US economic policy. Throw in some vital shortages like gas and even dollars and you get bigly inflation . . . and there wasn't much effort to tame it.

Reagan ran on the economy and supply-side economics but jacking up rates is the conventional-economics way to lower inflation. Yes, it slows growth by definition and the Reagan Recession was real. I mean, look at K-Cars for pete's sake they were just awful.

But the rates weren't the cause, the rates were the medicine to the inflation disease - and the medicine was painful. Ultimately, I think the consensus is that raising the rates like Volcker did was the right thing to do - the criticism is that where he failed was not lowering them soon enough when he could have.

Inflation is a term used to describe something that economists wish to make nebulous and jargon. The rate hikes “killed” inflation in that situation and would elsewhere. What they won’t and can’t do is actually stop inflation from happening. Inflation is a psychological response to conditions perceived through the lens of belief structures to be dangerous to profit. It is FOMO on steroids. It is also maintaining gross profit percentage.

Imo, inflation exists in every so-called developed economy and is a large percentage of GDP “growth”.

The nature of capitalism is that it requires inflation because it requires infinite growth. Capital is damaged far less by inflation because people must have shelter, food and healthcare although healthcare can be put off for a time. Capital must raise prices because capital fears diminishing profits.

 

[superchuck500]

Inflation is a term used to describe something that economists wish to make nebulous and jargon. The rate hikes “killed” inflation in that situation and would elsewhere. What they won’t and can’t do is actually stop inflation from happening. Inflation is a psychological response to conditions perceived through the lens of belief structures to be dangerous to profit. It is FOMO on steroids. It is also maintaining gross profit percentage.

Imo, inflation exists in every so-called developed economy and is a large percentage of GDP “growth”.

The nature of capitalism is that it requires inflation because it requires infinite growth. Capital is damaged far less by inflation because people must have shelter, food and healthcare although healthcare can be put off for a time. Capital must raise prices because capital fears diminishing profits.

There are definitely psychological elements to inflation but it is also scientific in the discipline of macroeconomics. I think much of the rest of that is demonstrably false bar-room economics but certainly not worth litigating here.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Has anyone said exactly how they are going to determine who an illegal immigrant vs legal immigrant vs naturalized citizen vs someone who's just here on vacation?

It has to me something more than Latino and barely speaks English, right?

Will there be anonymous tip lines set up? "I think the busboy at the restaurant we ate at last night is illegal"

I can't see how to do this in a way where people who are here legally (by whatever reason) at best get hassled by it or at worse caught up in it

This is one of my big concerns. My concern is they are going to adopt a model of - prove you are a citizen, instead of the USG proving that you aren't first.

 

[MT15]

I can't see how to do this in a way where people who are here legally (by whatever reason) without there being issues, at best get hassled by it or at worse caught up in it

That’s a feature, not a bug, to MAGA. There was one guy not that long ago who basically just admitted that they would deport entire families, even if the children are US citizens. They don’t care.

 

[bird]

There are definitely psychological elements to inflation but it is also scientific in the discipline of macroeconomics. I think much of the rest of that is demonstrably false bar-room economics but certainly not worth litigating here.

Actually, it is not scientific. The so-called law of supply and demand can apply, possibly, to financial assets but within “the economy” it does not. There is no market clearing for foodstuffs, refined petroleum products, pharmaceuticals et al. As the old saying goes economics suffers from physics envy. Dr. Richard Thaler, Daniel Kahneman (so?), Alex Tversky showed that there is far more psychological and emotional forces at work. Why did those who created CDOs fall prey to the lure? Because they were paid to. Despite knowing they were selling garbage they preyed on the same psychological, emotional forces to get people to buy their crap.

The same thing applies to politicians. Trump/Harris promised assorted things with no idea as to how they would be implemented and the impact of the law of unintended consequences.

We talk of regulated capitalism and we should. We do not talk of what, how, when, why and what happens afterward. The golden age of capitalism, the so-called Great Compression, occurred because the world economy had been destroyed by WW2. If a catastrophe that large is needed to rebalance capitalism we are well and truly forked.

 

[bird]

There are definitely psychological elements to inflation but it is also scientific in the discipline of macroeconomics. I think much of the rest of that is demonstrably false bar-room economics but certainly not worth litigating here.

I’ll take Thaler.

 

[SystemShock]

Has anyone said exactly how they are going to determine who an illegal immigrant vs legal immigrant vs naturalized citizen vs someone who's just here on vacation?

I don't believe the law has changed: if you are a legal immigrant, you are required to carry proper ID on you at all times.

Naturalized citizen? Get a Real ID. Helps if an effort is made to learn the language. Alternatively, get a passport card.

Tourist? Leave your passport in the safe at the hotel, carry a copy of your passport and visa. This is a general recommendation anywhere you travel.

 

[Dragon]

I don't believe the law has changed: if you are a legal immigrant, you are required to carry proper ID on you at all times.

Naturalized citizen? Get a Real ID. Helps if an effort is made to learn the language. Alternatively, get a passport card.

Tourist? Leave your passport in the safe at the hotel, carry a copy of your passport and visa. This is a general recommendation anywhere you travel.

So everyone who is not white should from now on carry documentation proving that they are citizents ? Is that what you are saying ? How about children ? Teenagers ?

 

[SystemShock]

So everyone who is not white should from now on carry documentation proving that they are citizents ? Is that what you are saying ? How about children ? Teenagers ?

The outrage is real.

What I am saying is, everyone should carry documentation.
I was 15-16 when I was given resident alien status in the U.S., given a green card, and told I needed to have it on me at all times. And guess what? I had it on me at all times, up until I was granted citizenship. Nowadays, I carry a Real ID.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

The outrage is real.

What I am saying is, everyone should carry documentation.
I was 15-16 when I was given resident alien status in the U.S., given a green card, and told I needed to have it on me at all times. And guess what? I had it on me at all times, up until I was granted citizenship. Nowadays, I carry a Real ID.

The issue is what is the mechanism for the government to stop and ask people for their ID? Basically what is the probable cause the government will need to have to essentially detain a person, and ask them to provide ID?

This is what I was referring to when I fear an erosion of our 4th amendment rights. During the whole BLM protests/riots - I had often said I wished the US would have as much commitment to the 4th amendment as we do the 1st and 2nd.

I think it would be far simpler to set up stiffer fines and penalties for people hiring people without proper documentation, and then allow that demand side to dry up.

 

[Optimus Prime]

I don't believe the law has changed: if you are a legal immigrant, you are required to carry proper ID on you at all times.

Naturalized citizen? Get a Real ID. Helps if an effort is made to learn the language. Alternatively, get a passport card.

Tourist? Leave your passport in the safe at the hotel, carry a copy of your passport and visa. This is a general recommendation anywhere you travel.

Are you okay going with the “Papers please” route?

Are you okay with some people inevitably being asked to produce their ID on a regular basis, possibly daily or weekly?

How is that much different than the cops pulling over a black guy in a nice car in a nice neighborhood?

“Just checking to make sure that this car really belongs to you and that you really belong in this neighborhood. If you have your license and registration what’s the problem?”

Or stop and frisk?

“Checking just in case you have something illegal on you. If you don’t have anything what’s the problem?”

“Show me your ID, just making sure you really belong in this country. But hey, if you have the proper documents what’s the problem?”

That constant suspicion and constantly justifying your presence, constantly validating your existence wears on your mind, body and soul

And what happens when someone is accused of having a fake ID?

Has anyone ever thought of using a tattoo for ID?

 

[Dragon]

The outrage is real.

What I am saying is, everyone should carry documentation.
I was 15-16 when I was given resident alien status in the U.S., given a green card, and told I needed to have it on me at all times. And guess what? I had it on me at all times, up until I was granted citizenship. Nowadays, I carry a Real ID.

How will you prevent the abusive targeting of minorities? You're effectively advocating for a system that gives law enforcement unchecked power under the guise of ID checks. What happens if a tall 14-year-old on their way to the store or playground is detained simply for forgetting their ID? How will you address the risk of police using this as a pretext to stop and question people without probable cause? Considering the low educational standards of some officers, this policy could easily become a tool for harassment and discrimination against minorities.

 

[Optimus Prime]

How will you prevent the abusive targeting of minorities? You're effectively advocating for a system that gives law enforcement unchecked power under the guise of ID checks. What happens if a tall 14-year-old on their way to the store or playground is detained simply for forgetting their ID? How will you address the risk of police using this as a pretext to stop and question people without probable cause? Considering the low educational standards of some officers, this policy could easily become a tool for harassment and discrimination against minorities.

I have no doubt that there are some cops who can’t wait for this to start

I wouldn’t blame it just on low education standards i think it’s more that some people are mean spirited bullies