Midterm projections. (2 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[MT15]

Ugh, NBC calling Vance in Ohio. This was an R seat, though, so not a pickup. Cannot stand a toady like Vance.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

For those not already following it, I highly recommend the 538 live-blog/analysis:

How Election Week 2022 Went Down

Live results and coverage of the 2022 Midterm elections, including the latest updates on the race for control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, as well analysis on races for governor, secretary of state, attorney general and state legislature.

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[UriUT]

Man that Tim Ryan loss sucks. I think he is a good candidate and I think Vance is a punk.

 

[DaveXA]

Warnock isn’t losing. He will hit 50% and will not need a runoff

I hope you're right.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Ugh, NBC calling Vance in Ohio. This was an R seat, though, so not a pickup. Cannot stand a toady like Vance.

Yep, it's Ohio. It and Florida are pretty much write-offs for Democrats now. In 2024 it's going to be a -1 for the Dems in the Senate as Sherrod Brown will not be reelected... assuming he doesn't retire. Anyway, a Republican is going to fill that seat.

 

[UriUT]

Val Demings is another one too. Those states are just terrible not to see that.

 

[DaveXA]

Man that Tim Ryan loss sucks. I think he is a good candidate and I think Vance is a punk.

Yeah, that's disappointing. Any Trumper candidate winning is a loss for the country.

 

[bdb13]

Val Demings is another one too. Those states are just terrible not to see that.

Both Ohio and Florida have been trending red hard since 2012.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Val Demings is another one too. Those states are just terrible not to see that.

I'm more surprised at North Carolina which I thought was trending blue but apparently not. I don't think Beasley was a particularly strong candidate. Odd to have a former state supreme court justice run for the Senate.

 

[MT15]

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

With Vance and possibly Walker to the Senate, its conversion to the Clown house that is the House of Representatives will be complete. I always held the Senate in high regard but now, the days of the serious statesman is truly over.

 

[MT15]

 

[bdb13]

I'm more surprised at North Carolina which I thought was trending blue but apparently not. I don't think Beasley was a particularly strong candidate. Odd to have a former state supreme court justice run for the Senate.

Obama won it in 2008 but they've never gotten over the hump there like it felt like they would as since then it's tilted back a bit somewhat to the right.

 

[DaveXA]

Boebert getting the boot would be great. She's a terrible Congresswoman and worse person.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Obama won it in 2008 but they've never gotten over the hump there like it felt like they would as since then it's tilted back a bit somewhat to the right.

Yeah, I thought the presence of the research triangle universities would help with the demographics but... guess not.

 

[MT15]

I don’t know anything about this district but I will take any good news, lol:

 

[J-DONK]

The Kentucky amendment losing is shocking. I wonder if it's sinking in just how much of a losing issue Abortion is going to be at the polls for Rs.

 

[DaveXA]

With Vance and possibly Walker to the Senate, its conversion to the Clown house that is the House of Representatives will be complete. I always held the Senate in high regard but now, the days of the serious statesman is truly over.

It's been trending that way for a bit now. When you've got idiots like Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Tommy Tuberville and Josh Hawley...it's bad already. Vance and Walker will just add to it.