Midterm projections. (7 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

10:22pm a guest on Fox said that many Trump candidates are struggling. He went on to say the country was divided before the election and it will be divided after the election. Instead of a Red Wave we are seeing just a nudge.

This seems to be what's happening. Which is sort of a tepid win for Democrats given the economic issues and Biden's relative unpopularity.

Still a lot of races to be called and GOP candidates will 'gain ground' so to speak as most early returns include Democratic-leaning absentee/mail-in votes.

 

[nolaspe]

So the clown mtg was re-elected, 2 more yrs of this shrieking banshee, yay...

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

If Warnok loses his seat, I don't see the Democrats hanging on to the Senate. Might end up being a runoff, so we might not know for a while yet.

I'm not shocked Abrams is losing, but that's disappointing. I was hoping she'd win.

I expected it. Kemp has done a good job in Georgia and he's not really Trump-aligned. What will be interesting is the potential run-off between Walker and Warnock and who manages to turn out voters without a full slate of elections on the ballot.

 

[J-DONK]

Actually I've seen an explanation on that made by Josh Barro among one. Her strategy was to remain very progressive and pushed to get voters out. Warnock focused less on turnout and more on reaching out and working in the middle. I don't know if that's valid as I am not knowledgeable of Georgia politics.

Abram's can't remain progressive because she isn't one. She is on the board of directors for the Center for American Progress. Abrams is an out, and out neoliberal.

Dear Lord,

It's a meme at this point to blame progressives for every lost race.

 

[UriUT]

If it's a runoff, Trump should tell his voters to stay home again.

 

[UriUT]

Abram's can't remain progressive because she isn't one. She is on the board of directors for the Center for American Progress. Abrams is an out, and out neoliberal.

Dear Lord,

It's a meme at this point to blame progressives for every lost race.

I would point you to the Josh Barro twitter thread on his remark but twitter is way behind me now

 

[DaveXA]

So the clown mtg was re-elected, 2 more yrs of this shrieking banshee, yay...

Smh, terrible. If I could pick one that I could punt from Congress, she'd be first on my list.

 

[DaveXA]

If it's a runoff, Trump should tell his voters to stay home again.

Lol, indeed.

Of course, Walker is a Trumper clone, so I don't think it will happen this time. A runoff should favor Walker this time around imo.

 

[MT15]

If Warnok loses his seat, I don't see the Democrats hanging on to the Senate. Might end up being a runoff, so we might not know for a while yet.

I'm not shocked Abrams is losing, but that's disappointing. I was hoping she'd win.

Warnock isn’t losing. He will hit 50% and will not need a runoff

 

[bdb13]

10:22pm a guest on Fox said that many Trump candidates are struggling. He went on to say the country was divided before the election and it will be divided after the election. Instead of a Red Wave we are seeing just a nudge.

Trump/2020 election and S.C. abortion ruling motivated Democrats and helped them with some independents. Still early and we'll see as Republicans may very well take House and Senate here but yeah, doesn't seem like it'll be an extraordinary wave.

 

[J-DONK]

I would point you to the Josh Barro twitter thread on his remark but twitter is way behind me now

I can only imagine he means her campaign strategy? It's generally a good idea to get out of the vote. He must think she should have went more negative on Kemp.

If Warnock wins, and Abrams loses the more obvious take away would be candidate quality on the Republican side.

 

[MT15]

Spanburger held her seat in VA for Dems and I just saw this:

 

[UriUT]

I can only imagine he means her campaign strategy? It's generally a good idea to get out of the vote. He must think she should have went more negative on Kemp.

If Warnock wins, and Abrams loses the more obvious take away would be candidate quality on the Republican side.

He mentioned her stance on issues too. But yeah, most definitely campaign strategy. More as, "we'll see who's strategy would be better".

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

As I saw mentioned on the blog-o-sphere, it's not good for Trump that some of his candidates are floundering and Ron "DeSanctimonious" had a runaway victory. Although that just goes to show you where all the crazy Trumpanzees go to retire.

 

[J-DONK]

He mentioned her stance on issues too. But yeah, most definitely campaign strategy. More as, "we'll see who's strategy would be better".

Yeah, I think that's unfair personally. The biggest difference in both races is Kemp vs Walker.

 

[bdb13]

current 538 Senate odds: 51% Democrat 49% Republican

 

[MT15]

I heard an interesting analysis about the House from Kornaki:

The only seats that Rs have picked up so far are 3 in FL that were aggressively redrawn to favor Rs and two in GA (IIRC) that were also gerrymandered. And Dems are seeming like they can flip several in various spots. So I don’t think the House is assured to go R, it’s possible that Dems will keep it.

 

[J-DONK]

As I saw mentioned on the blog-o-sphere, it's not good for Trump that some of his candidates are floundering and Ron "DeSanctimonious" had a runaway victory. Although that just goes to show you where all the crazy Trumpanzees go to retire.

It completely deflates his presidential announcement that should be coming soonish.