Midterm projections. (1 Viewer)

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    SamAndreas

    It's Not my Fault
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    I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

    Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

    Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

    But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

    That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

    :)
     
    Republicans will win the house. Which means that at best nothing will get done for the next two years.

    I hope the Senate is 50/50 so Kamala can at least come in and cast the vote that stops the Republicans from doing anything.
     
    The latest generic ballot and polls suggest that Republicans will win the House with 220 to 225 seats, while Democrats will barely hold the Senate at 50/50. Republicans have an advantage in the House due to gerrymandering, and they're narrowing Democratic leads in Senate races, but I'm going to guess a shocking result. I'm going to guess that Democrats will only lose 3 seats to hold the House with 217 seats, and will gain 1 seat in the Senate. I think 2 of either Ryan in Ohio, Barnes in Wisconsin, and Fetterman in Pennsylvania will win, and only one of the incumbent Democrats will lose. I'm not going to try to guess the House winners, because it is too much, but my gut tells me that women Hobbs voters are going to throw a wrench into the polls.
     
    Here's hoping that the Dems come up with a better plan than they did in 2020! I mean, if you are going to implement a plan to steal an election without leaving any evidence, the least you could do is ensure you steal Congress as well. Come on man!!!
     
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    I do wish we would get more moderate and less tainted leaders in Congress.

    If we could get Joe Manchin or Mitt Romney as Senate Majority leader, and somebody like Tim Ryan or a moderate Republican as house speaker for the next Congress we might have some hope to getting things done.

    Couldn't all of the minority party get together along with just a few defectors and vote for the speaker, or did they create a rule to prevent that?

    It would be much harder to get a moderate Senate Majority leader though.
     
    The latest generic ballot and polls suggest that Republicans will win the House with 220 to 225 seats, while Democrats will barely hold the Senate at 50/50. Republicans have an advantage in the House due to gerrymandering, and they're narrowing Democratic leads in Senate races, but I'm going to guess a shocking result. I'm going to guess that Democrats will only lose 3 seats to hold the House with 217 seats, and will gain 1 seat in the Senate. I think 2 of either Ryan in Ohio, Barnes in Wisconsin, and Fetterman in Pennsylvania will win, and only one of the incumbent Democrats will lose. I'm not going to try to guess the House winners, because it is too much, but my gut tells me that women Hobbs voters are going to throw a wrench into the polls.
    I haven't seen a generic ballot poll conducted this year that I would regard as being the lest bit credible. This year the polling outfits which are left are a conservative biased bunch almost across the board. Rasmussen is one of the better ones with this current field.

    The few exceptions to that polling bias have not done the generic ballot question because it's not a question which is based in reality. There is no generic congressional question on any ballot in America. Something has to actually exist on a ballot to be a legitimate polling question.

    So I don't know what will happen.

    :)

    Not knowing is better than knowing under conditions like these.
     
    I do wish we would get more moderate and less tainted leaders in Congress.

    If we could get Joe Manchin or Mitt Romney as Senate Majority leader, and somebody like Tim Ryan or a moderate Republican as house speaker for the next Congress we might have some hope to getting things done.

    Couldn't all of the minority party get together along with just a few defectors and vote for the speaker, or did they create a rule to prevent that?

    It would be much harder to get a moderate Senate Majority leader though.
    What's with this noise about Mitt Romney?

    He's not a moderate, he's not a Trumpet, but that doesn't make him a moderate. It doesn't make Liz Cheney a moderate either.
     
    I don’t believe most of the polls right now. They’re fighting the last war, instead of gauging what is happening now. IMO, which is worth what you just paid for it, lol.

    Wouldn’t shock me if Dems narrowly keep the house and the senate. Wouldn’t completely shock me if R narrowly gain the house, like by less than 10 votes. But my inclination is that Dems narrowly keep the house.
     
    What's with this noise about Mitt Romney?

    He's not a moderate, he's not a Trumpet, but that doesn't make him a moderate. It doesn't make Liz Cheney a moderate either.

    A moderate Republican is anyone who says Biden won the 2020 election. I wish it wasn't that way, but it is what it is.
     
    The GOP will take both the House and Senate. It will be the beginning of far-right dominance of all branches of government for the foreseeable future. Trump or DeSantis will win in 2024 and with the Senate in GOP control (the map is terrible for Democratic Senate candidates that year), the federal judiciary will be packed with right-wing blogger types. Whether America ever gets past that phase will remain to be seen but, in the interim, you can bet the GOP will do whatever they can to fix the mechanics of government and voting in their favor.

    But it will be funny to see who people blame when Democrats no longer have power and the country goes to shirt. And whether independents will eventually have enough of non-stop anti-woke grievance complaints and mandated Bible study.

     
    The GOP will take both the House and Senate. It will be the beginning of far-right dominance of all branches of government for the foreseeable future. Trump or DeSantis will win in 2024 and with the Senate in GOP control (the map is terrible for Democratic Senate candidates that year), the federal judiciary will be packed with right-wing blogger types. Whether America ever gets past that phase will remain to be seen but, in the interim, you can bet the GOP will do whatever they can to fix the mechanics of government and voting in their favor.

    But it will be funny to see who people blame when Democrats no longer have power and the country goes to shirt. And whether independents will eventually have enough of non-stop anti-woke grievance complaints and mandated Bible study.



    They'll still blame Democrats, because that's what they'll be told to do.
     
    I'm surprised that the NYT would cover a story like this. It's an excellent video that shows the areas of the country with complete control by Democrats don't enact laws or policies that they claim to be in support of.
     
    Is there some other major party that hasn't questioned election results?




    Are you claiming there wasn't a large scale effective covert disinformation campaign by Russia in 2016 that the majority of Americans were unaware of during the campaign?

    Honestly in 2016, most of us that didn't vote for Trump couldn't comprehend why so many people would vote for him. We basically spent a whole year after the election trying to understand the people that voted for Trump. With the exposure of the Russian disinformation campaign and how far it reached, we attributed a lot of those votes to that. That's what is meant when people said that "Russia hacked our election". But nobody ever claimed that there were 2,000 mules or that Republicans cheated by changing votes.

    What we've learned since 2016 (especially when more people voted for him in 2020) is that the people that voted for Trump wanted an autocrat who was going to "own the libs". The Russian disinformation along with Trump started the slide into conspiracy theory rabbit hole hell on the right, but that desire to force the world into the Trump voters reality was always there. Trump gave them the person to follow and the Russian disinformation campaign showed them how to fabricate that reality with conspiracies.

    I'm sure you'll have some pithy, dismissive comment in retort. But if you want an honest explanation, that's it.
     
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    Are you claiming there wasn't a large scale effective covert disinformation campaign by Russia in 2016 that the majority of Americans were unaware of during the campaign?

    Honestly in 2016, most of us that didn't vote for Trump couldn't comprehend why so many people would vote for him. We basically spent a whole year after the election trying to understand the people that voted for Trump. With the exposure of the Russian disinformation campaign and how far it reached, we attributed a lot of those votes to that. That's what is meant when people said that "Russia hacked our election". But nobody ever claimed that there were 2,000 mules or that Republicans cheated by changing votes.

    What we've learned since 2016 (especially when more people voted for him in 2020) is that the people that voted for Trump wanted an autocrat who was going to "own the libs". The Russian disinformation along with Trump started the slide into conspiracy theory rabbit hole hell on the right, but that desire to force the world into the Trump voters reality was always there. Trump gave them the person to follow and the Russian disinformation campaign showed them how to fabricate that reality with conspiracies.

    I'm sure you'll have some pithy, dismissive comment in retort. But if you want an honest explanation, that's it.
    I'm not sure I would call it large scale and I don't think it was effective as the left claims, but yes there was a Russian disinformation campaign. It's effect was wildly exaggerated by the left similar to the Demcracy is at stake narrative. In what ways was their disinformation campaign supposedly effective?

    Here are some of those Russian Facebook ads. Do you really think these influenced many people to vote a certain way?

    So all those claims that Russia hacked our elections was because of the Russian disinformation campaign and not just more lies from the left?

    2018:

     

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