Midterm projections. (1 Viewer)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[SaintForLife]

Don't mind SFL. He's mostly harmless so long as he stays in St. Tammany Parish For Life! I agree with your assessments on the midterms although I think the Republicans will do better than forecast in the closer states.

I'm mostly interested to see if Evan McMullin can somehow pull off the victory in Utah. He needs a decent portion of Republicans to abandon Trump-approved Mike Lee and then probably all of Utah's Democrats to head to the polls to affirmative vote for a guy who is basically a Reagan Republican.

Not surprising you are interested in how the former CIA official McMullin will do while you focus on Greenwald.

 

[SamAndreas]

That post was ....uh....just.....uh....weird
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I mean....you are the OP of a thread on Election night ....and it IS election night .....yet you are opining about Parmesan cheese ???

Don't you eat popcorn on election night while the returns come in?

 

[SamAndreas]

The first votes are on the board.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2022-midterm-election/348392/

NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 8, 7:20 PM
Ten percent of the expected vote is now reporting in Georgia’s closely watched Senate race, and Warnock leads Walker 68 percent to 31 percent. But don’t get too excited, Democrats: The votes that are reporting so far are disproportionately coming from Democratic areas, like Atlanta.

 

[samiam5211]

I predict that the next two years will have more time spent in a government shutdown than any 2 year period in our history.

 

[MT15]

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Not surprising you are interested in how the former CIA official McMullin will do while you focus on Greenwald.

 

[DaveXA]

It feels like a lot of the polling wasn't too far off so far. There's certainly a red wave in Florida. Not really shocking tho.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

I've been watching Fox News coverage and as the various contests are flashed on the screen, I see plenty of Democratic winners. Not one Fox anchor or guest panelist has said anything (as of 8:45pm) about a Red Wave or any of that stuff. I took a break and will tune back in around 9:30pm.
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Just saw this....

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[J-DONK]

I've been watching Fox News coverage and as the various contests are flashed on the screen, I see plenty of Democratic winners. Not one Fox anchor or guest panelist has said anything (as of 8:45pm) about a Red Wave or any of that stuff. I took a break and will tune back in around 9:30pm.
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Just saw this....

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Nope, it's early still but it looks like there will be no red wave. I'm very interested to see a demographic breakdown of voters. My guess is Roe looms large.

 

[MT15]

It looks like the House could go either way at this point. I think Dems keep the Senate.

 

[UriUT]

WoW. Boebert is at risk!

 

[MT15]

Just now seeing that Boebert might be in trouble in CO.

 

[SamAndreas]

It looks like the House could go either way at this point. I think Dems keep the Senate.

That certainly could be how it goes.

The conclusion i have come to is I'm going to be going to bed not knowing how it is going to close. I remember that is the way 2020 was too.

I should regard not knowing as being good news.

 

[J-DONK]

Abrams losing is not good for Warnock.

 

[SamAndreas]

Just now seeing that Boebert might be in trouble in CO.

I like that. Her district is where I grew up.

It sure would be nice to see her booted.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

Nope, it's early still but it looks like there will be no red wave. I'm very interested to see a demographic breakdown of voters. My guess is Roe looms large.

10:22pm a guest on Fox said that many Trump candidates are struggling. He went on to say the country was divided before the election and it will be divided after the election. Instead of a Red Wave we are seeing just a nudge.

 

[UriUT]

Abrams losing is not good for Warnock.

Actually I've seen an explanation on that made by Josh Barro among one. Her strategy was to remain very progressive and pushed to get voters out. Warnock focused less on turnout and more on reaching out and working in the middle. I don't know if that's valid as I am not knowledgeable of Georgia politics.

 

[DaveXA]

It looks like the House could go either way at this point. I think Dems keep the Senate.

If Warnok loses his seat, I don't see the Democrats hanging on to the Senate. Might end up being a runoff, so we might not know for a while yet.

I'm not shocked Abrams is losing, but that's disappointing. I was hoping she'd win.