Midterm projections. (3 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[J-DONK]

Yeah, I thought the presence of the research triangle universities would help with the demographics but... guess not.

It has a lot of data centers. I thought it would eventually turn as well.

 

[wardorican]

AZ going more blue than expected so far.

 

[MT15]

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

This seems to be what's happening. Which is sort of a tepid win for Democrats given the economic issues and Biden's relative unpopularity.

Still a lot of races to be called and GOP candidates will 'gain ground' so to speak as most early returns include Democratic-leaning absentee/mail-in votes.

Thank you for mentioning the absentee/mail in votes.
I was not considering that when looking at the results of undecided contests.

 

[MT15]

I think 2 OH House seats have now flipped from R to D, IIRC:

 

[MT15]

Opinion, from someone who is an independent, I think:

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

One oddity is that Wisconsin governor Tony Evers is projected to win but Mandela Barnes will lose to Ron Johnson (of all people) in the Senate race.

 

[MT15]

This is a D pickup for the House

 

[J-DONK]

Numbers for Fetterman are looking good.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

McMullin trailing Lee by about 10% with half the vote in... guessing he couldn't motivate enough Democrats to show up to the polls to vote for him.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Looking at 538, but what's everyone's go-to channel right now?

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

McMullin trailing Lee by about 10% with half the vote in... guessing he couldn't motivate enough Democrats to show up to the polls to vote for him.

In that race it wasn't all about getting the Dems, it was more about getting sensible R's to vote for him.

 

[MT15]

 

[J-DONK]

Looking at 538, but what's everyone's go-to channel right now?

CNN + NYT prediction desk

 

[MT15]

Language, but a good way to look at this:

 

[MT15]

The Kentucky amendment losing is shocking. I wonder if it's sinking in just how much of a losing issue Abortion is going to be at the polls for Rs.

Not shocking to most women.

 

[MT15]

 

[MT15]

Kinzinger is out of forks to give: