Midterm projections. (4 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[MT15]

Claire McCaskill just said on MSNBC that her contacts in the Party tell her that they expect to win the Senate races in both NV and AZ. I suppose they have internal modeling. Anyway, if that happens and there is a run-off in GA, Ds will retain the Senate no matter who wins the GA run off. And she says Georgia Rs won’t turn out to vote for Walker if the Senate isn’t on the line.

 

[DaveXA]

Claire McCaskill just said on MSNBC that her contacts in the Party tell her that they expect to win the Senate races in both NV and AZ. I suppose they have internal modeling. Anyway, if that happens and there is a run-off in GA, Ds will retain the Senate no matter who wins the GA run off. And she says Georgia Rs won’t turn out to vote for Walker if the Senate isn’t on the line.

Yeah, Fox is or just was covering the Nevada race and they're starting to see the same thing. Interesting.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Seems like GOP should narrowly win the House... although the bright side of that is it's probably the end of Kevin McCarthy as Trump will give the orders that he should not be made speaker.

 

[J-DONK]

Seems like GOP should narrowly win the House... although the bright side of that is it's probably the end of Kevin McCarthy as Trump will give the orders that he should not be made speaker.

Right before the election he started talking about cutting entitlements.

 

[coldseat]

Looking much better for the Dems in the Senate than anybody thought. I'm feeling like Warnock will take it tonight.

Fetterman just projected as winner by CNN.

They're going to expand their lead in the Senate

House still up in the air, but not giving up on it yet.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

CNN called PA for Fetterman.

 

[coldseat]

Seems like GOP should narrowly win the House... although the bright side of that is it's probably the end of Kevin McCarthy as Trump will give the orders that he should not be made speaker.

Trump has lost a lot of power tonight in the Republican party.

 

[J-DONK]

Trump has lost a lot of power tonight in the Republican party.

Yes one of the big takeaways is Trumpian candidates did poorly overall. He was probably going to announce next week his presidential bid on the back of a massive red wave.

Desantis outdid Trump in Florida.

He also stands a good chance of being indicted.

It all points to Trump being challenged for the 2024 bid.

 

[MT15]

I’ve not given up on the House. I think Dems have a decent chance to keep it.

 

[DaveXA]

Seems like GOP should narrowly win the House... although the bright side of that is it's probably the end of Kevin McCarthy as Trump will give the orders that he should not be made speaker.

Yeah, the fact that it's midterms and the Republicans probably won't gain anything in the Senate and barely win the House will be viewed as a terrible loss. There were a lot of issues working against Democrats, so to see Trumpers underperforming is nice. If Trump were smart, he'd see the writing on the wall and go away. But who am I kidding? It's Trump. He can't help himself.

 

[MT15]

 

[GrandAdmiral]

McCarthy is going to have nightmares of having to deal with the fringe of his party while also having a Democratic Senate that will slap back all the stupid stuff they'll happen to pass.

The downside is that we'll likely to see more government shutdowns, but at least we know if a SCOTUS spot opens up, the president will have his nominee voted on.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Trump has lost a lot of power tonight in the Republican party.

To an extent. If he gives the word, he can effectively end the candidacy of any GOP office holder by using his sway over his crazy base to influence the outcome of primaries.

 

[MT15]

Fetterman sounds really good in his speech just now. No evidence of verbal issues.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

As much as I'd like Boebert to lose, looking at the counties in her district and vote totals there is still a decent chance she eeks out a win. The Democrat's lead has been shrinking as more votes come in from around 10,000 when there was 70% to now around 7,000 at 80%.

 

[DaveXA]

Fetterman sounds really good in his speech just now. No evidence of verbal issues.

Yeah, he looked good up there. Glad he was able to recover from that stroke.

 

[Neworleansfan]

Just realized that if it’s 51-49 in the Senate, then what his face from W.V. becomes immaterial.

 

[DaveXA]

As much as I'd like Boebert to lose, looking at the counties in her district and vote totals there is still a decent chance she eeks out a win. The Democrat's lead has been shrinking as more votes come in from around 10,000 when there was 70% to now around 7,000 at 80%.

Ah man, that would suck nuts if she manages to win. Only MTG is worse.