Midterm projections. (1 Viewer)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[Taurus]

Interesting:

I don't know if the Dems "meddled" in the primary, but Herrera-Beutler would've won tonight.
Well, except for having done the right thing and voting to impeach Trump.

 

[SystemShock]

So there is hope after all... maybe?

 

[Bolo]

Basically what you saw tonight was a rebuke of Trump and Desantis rise. Regardless of how people feel about Desantis, he's now the future of their party and better start accepting it as such from now till 24. Trump is old news and if they decide to ride or die with Trump, the democrats are gonna wipe the floor with him in 24.

 

[bdb13]

Basically what you saw tonight was a rebuke of Trump and Desantis rise. Regardless of how people feel about Desantis, he's now the future of their party and better start accepting it as such from now till 24. Trump is old news and if they decide to ride or die with Trump, the democrats are gonna wipe the floor with him in 24.

And Trump's about to make it hell for them. Will try to destroy DeSantis and will claim it's all rigged and everything else when he's losing to him.

 

[Bolo]

And Trump's about to make it hell for them. Will try to destroy DeSantis and will claim it's all rigged and everything else when he's losing to him.

Trumps ego will make it impossible for him to just take the hint.

 

[MT15]

Trumps ego will make it impossible for him to just take the hint.

True, and Trump was hinting about some thing he “knows” about DeSantis that nobody else knows. Trump wouldn’t hesitate to try to smear DeSantis in the worst way possible. Trump is never a team player.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

I woke this morning and read about 30 to 40 posts that took place after. I went to bed last night.
I'm glad to read that many think Trump might finally be done or at least very much weakened.
The GOP WILL take over the House.
Yahoo displays a good margin... 199 to 173 as of 6:30amEST

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[MT15]

That’s not a done deal, Steve. Rs have to be reassessing their strategies.

 

[MT15]

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

That’s not a done deal, Steve. Rs have to be reassessing their strategies.

Gee. I understand it is not a done deal.
That's why I stated that it was AS OF 6:35am EST

 

[MT15]

The polls were….not correct

 

[MT15]

Gee. I understand it is not a done deal.
That's why I stated that it was AS OF 6:35am EST

I guess your statement before that is what threw me. All caps to emphasize and all.

 

[bdb13]

Gee. I understand it is not a done deal.
That's why I stated that it was AS OF 6:35am EST

The way you wrote it made it seem like you were saying it was a done deal which is why she responded.

 

[samiam5211]

The next two years of Trump v/s DeSantis is going to be fun to watch.

If the party could just toss Trump to the curb and get behind DeSantis, he could probably win 2024 in a landslide, but we know Trump is going to try to destroy him.

I don't think DeSantis is quick enough on his feet to handle an antagonistic Trump.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

I guess your statement before that is what threw me. All caps to emphasize and all.

Now AS OF 8:08am
*

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[SteveSBrickNJ]

The way you wrote it made it seem like you were saying it was a done deal which is why she responded.

I see. Well "the done deal" aspect IS that when all races are settled...I think all reasonable and logical people would say the GOP will be the Majority Party in the House.
I mean...come on...
Now it sits at 199 R to 173 D...with only 218 needed to be the majority.
Yes of course it is not over....but I don't see how the Ds could possibly overcome a 199 to 173 lead and propel themselves to the magic 218 number. Let's be realistic @MT15

 

[Bolo]

The whole rebuke of Trump can really just be summed up in Georgia. Kemp curbstomped Abrams and yet the senate race is very tight, going to a run off. Kemp and Trump were at odds ever since Kemp didn't do Trumps bidding in the 2020 election. That means people went to the polls and pulled a lever down for Kemp but then pulled a lever down for Warnock as well. That and Kari lake getting demolished in Arizona is very telling to me.

 

[RobF]

I see. Well "the done deal" aspect IS that when all races are settled...i think all reasonable and logical people would say the GOP will be the Majority Party in the House.
I mean...come on...
Now it sits at 199 R to 173 D...with only 218 needed to be the majority.
Yes of course it is not over....but I don't see how the Ds could possibly overcome a 199 to 173 lead and propel themselves to the magic 218 number. Let's be realistic @MT15

Because that's not how it works? It depends on the individual seats left to count. The chances of those being R or D is not necessarily contingent on the seats already counted.

Put it this way, there's 435 seats, and previously the Democrats had 220 to the Republicans' 212, with 3 seats vacant.

Now hypothetically, if all the seats went the same way they were before, and to give the extreme example where all the 212 Republican seats were counted first, the way you're looking at it, you'd be going, "Oooh, look, it's 212 to nothing, it's a Republican landslide!" Except it wouldn't be, because the seats left to be counted would include 220 Democrats (in this example).

Reality isn't that extreme of course, but the point remains, that while you can look at the count so far and in particular whether any seats have switched, until there's actually a majority in place, you still need to look at the individual remaining seats and their chances of being R or D to predict where the balance of the House will end up, you can't just look at the count so far.