Midterm projections. (2 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[DaveXA]

Just realized that if it’s 51-49 in the Senate, then what his face from W.V. becomes immaterial.

Indeed. That would make a big difference, although keep in mind he wasn't always the only one standing in the way. But it still helps.

 

[J-DONK]

Just realized that if it’s 51-49 in the Senate, then what his face from W.V. becomes immaterial.

It would be nice to get 52 so Sinema doesn't matter as well.

 

[DaveXA]

It would be nice to get 52 so Sinema doesn't matter as well.

Exactly.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

It would be nice to get 52 so Sinema doesn't matter as well.

Yep, although nothing will matter with Republicans taking the House, as it currently looking.

 

[Neworleansfan]

It would be nice to get 52 so Sinema doesn't matter as well.

Wisconsin is getting closer but I am not so sure it can push through.

 

[Taurus]

Projections look good for my crimson Congressional district to go blue tonight.
Joe Kent, who had aspirations to one day tongue-bathe every article of clothing Trump ever wore is poised to lose to a woman with the last name Perez.

 

[MT15]

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Wisconsin is getting closer but I am not so sure it can push through.

That one is puzzling. Apparently there were ticket splitters with some people voting for the Democrat governor but then voting for Ron Johnson over Mandela Barnes. Hate to say it, but it's been said that Milwaukee has some problems with racism. That would explain it.

 

[DaveXA]

Man, I'll be relieved if the Democrats manage to hold both chambers. Hope it happens.

 

[MT15]

Yep

 

[coldseat]

That one is puzzling. Apparently there were ticket splitters with some people voting for the Democrat governor but then voting for Ron Johnson over Mandela Barnes. Hate to say it, but it's been said that Milwaukee has some problems with racism. That would explain it.

Barns msy still have a chance to close and take the lead. Supposedly he's out performing Biden's margins.

But there's also the incumbent effects that may explain the difference.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

That one is puzzling. Apparently there were ticket splitters with some people voting for the Democrat governor but then voting for Ron Johnson over Mandela Barnes. Hate to say it, but it's been said that Milwaukee has some problems with racism. That would explain it.

I was saying it to myself all night.

 

[MT15]

 

[coldseat]

One thing about the house being so tight is that even if Republicans take control, some committees will be deadlocked because of numbers. They may not have the power to carry out all of their desired oversight witch hunts.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

McCarthy is talking victoriously, but he knows his power is going to be quite limited.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

I was saying it to myself all night.

To follow up, at the 93% numbers I'm seeing now on ABC, Evers has 47,363 more votes than Barnes. And Barnes currently trails Johnson by 40,237 votes. There's the difference right there. Of course there was a massive amount of ticket-split voting in Ohio so there might be some less nefarious explanation.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

McCarthy is talking victoriously, but he knows his power is going to be quite limited.

He'll be ousted in a year in a half at his next primary. He's done.

 

[MT15]

Interesting: