Midterm projections. (2 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[MT15]

I see. Well "the done deal" aspect IS that when all races are settled...i think all reasonable and logical people would say the GOP will be the Majority Party in the House.
I mean...come on...
Now it sits at 199 R to 173 D...with only 218 needed to be the majority.
Yes of course it is not over....but I don't see how the Ds could possibly overcome a 199 to 173 lead and propel themselves to the magic 218 number. Let's be realistic @MT15

You should take a minute to think about this. All the CA House seats haven’t been called yet, neither has Boebert’s. And if the Rs do take the House, by the slimmest of margins - which could happen, I never denied it was possible, it will mainly be because of 2 things.

Ds obeyed the court’s ruling on their attempt to gerrymander NY House seats and drew a more fair map, that led to a few R victories there in areas that were Democratic.

And Rs in OH and FL aggressively gerrymandered. OH Rs, in fact, ignored a court ruling in what I am reading was a shameful flouting of the court’s decision. Which led to R victories in FL and OH in areas that were reliably Democratic. In effect, Rs ignored the court‘s order until it was too late to redraw their gerrymandered maps.

This isn’t the ”red wave” that was predicted. Will you at least admit that?

 

[bdb13]

I see. Well "the done deal" aspect IS that when all races are settled...i think all reasonable and logical people would say the GOP will be the Majority Party in the House.
I mean...come on...
Now it sits at 199 R to 173 D...with only 218 needed to be the majority.
Yes of course it is not over....but I don't see how the Ds could possibly overcome a 199 to 173 lead and propel themselves to the magic 218 number. Let's be realistic @MT15

I think the Republicans will take the House but a majority of the unresolved races will go to the Democrats and so I believe the numbers there aren't indicative of how close it'll be in the end.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

You should take a minute to think about this. All the CA House seats haven’t been called yet, neither has Boebert’s. And if the Rs do take the House, by the slimmest of margins - which could happen, I never denied it was possible, it will mainly be because of 2 things.

Ds obeyed the court’s ruling on their attempt to gerrymander NY House seats and drew a more fair map, that led to a few R victories there in areas that were Democratic.

And Rs in OH and FL aggressively gerrymandered. OH Rs, in fact, ignored a court ruling in what I am reading was a shameful flouting of the court’s decision. Which led to R victories in FL and OH in areas that were reliably Democratic. In effect, Rs ignored the court‘s order until it was too late to redraw their gerrymandered maps.

This isn’t the ”red wave” that was predicted. Will you at least admit that?

Absolutely. I think last night I posted there would be no Red Wave...just a nudge.
Should I go searching for that or do you recall that?

 

[samiam5211]

Absolutely. I think last night I posted there would be no Red Wave...just a nudge.
Should I go searching for that or do you recall that?

At the beginning of the season, i said the saints would win the superbowl.

After Monday night's game, i said we were not going to win the superbowl.

I love being right.

 

[DaveXA]

To follow up, at the 93% numbers I'm seeing now on ABC, Evers has 47,363 more votes than Barnes. And Barnes currently trails Johnson by 40,237 votes. There's the difference right there. Of course there was a massive amount of ticket-split voting in Ohio so there might be some less nefarious explanation.

Same thing in Georgia as well, although the dynamics are slightly different there.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

At the beginning of the season, i said the saints would win the superbowl.

After Monday night's game, i said we were not going to win the superbowl.

I love being right.

Well if you mean I should admit that my Jan. prediction did not come true.
Yes I admit that.
I'm not trying to deflect that I was wrong.
I
Was
Wrong.

 

[MT15]

Everybody’s wrong sometimes. I was really hoping Warnock could avoid a runoff, I didn’t think that many Rs could actually vote for a candidate as bad as Walker. If I would have bet, I would have bet that Warnock would win easily.

I was also really thinking that Ryan had a shot to beat Vance in OH. That’s another awful pick.

 

[MT15]

I think the thing we can all feel good about is that, by and large, the radical Rs were defeated. Most of the people who were election deniers, and kissed Trump’s butt, lost. We will have to be happy about that.

 

[samiam5211]

Well if you mean I should admit that my Jan. prediction did not come true.
Yes I admit that.
I'm not trying to deflect that I was wrong.
I
Was
Wrong.

I was also wrong, as were most people.

Hopefully this is the end of Trumpism, and we can start heading back towards normal politics.

 

[UriUT]

I was also wrong, as were most people.

Hopefully this is the end of Trumpism, and we can start heading back towards normal politics.

Is trunpist dead though? 5% split ticket is a good indicator. But that s only 5% where the rest are vote Republicans regardless or trumpist. They voted freaking dead brain cell walker for crying out loud. 49%. That white nationalist belt of mtg s district wont go away. That genie is out of the bag and it'll be a force for many more elections. Only a string of major national defeats will serious power hungry repubs rethink their cowardice.

 

[samiam5211]

Is trunpist dead though? 5% split ticket is a good indicator. But that s only 5% where the rest are vote Republicans regardless or trumpist. They voted freaking dead brain cell walker for crying out loud. 49%. That white nationalist belt of mtg s district wont go away. That genie is out of the bag and it'll be a force for many more elections. Only a string of major national defeats will serious power hungry repubs rethink their cowardice.

I think DeSantis being so strong is going to cause the main party to get behind him, which is going to piss off Trump. Trump isn't going to go out and campaign for DeSantis he's going to treat him like enemy #1. The party is going to have to choose, and i can't imagine them choosing Trump over DeSantis.

 

[UriUT]

I think DeSantis being so strong is going to cause the main party to get behind him, which is going to piss off Trump. Trump isn't going to go out and campaign for DeSantis he's going to treat him like enemy #1. The party is going to have to choose, and i can't imagine them choosing Trump over DeSantis.

That's Florida. Trump maybe a pariah but he is still the head honcho in the repubs else where. And I wouldnt worry about de santis nationally...he lacks the charisma and would fold to the national media...if they do their job.

 

[samiam5211]

That's Florida. Trump maybe a pariah but he is still the head honcho in the repubs else where. And I wouldnt worry about de santis nationally...he lacks the charisma and would fold to the national media...if they do their job.

If the Republicans had not ran MAGA candidates in Georgia and Pennsylvania, and maybe even Arizona, we would he having a very different conversation this morning. I think the Republican party is very aware of that.

I don't think anyone had a better night that Ron DeSantis. It may also be his undoing, because Trump is going to try and destroy him now.

Maybe i'm just a little too excited to watch the Republican party implode, but i think the seeds of that were laid tonight. There will be a civil war, but it is going to be fought within the Republican party.

 

[UriUT]

If the Republicans had not ran MAGA candidates in Georgia and Pennsylvania, and maybe even Arizona, we would he having a very different conversation this morning. I think the Republican party is very aware of that.

I don't think anyone had a better night that Ron DeSantis. It may also be his undoing, because Trump is going to try and destroy him now.

Maybe i'm just a little too excited to watch the Republican party implode, but i think the seeds of that were laid tonight. There will be a civil war, but it is going to be fought within the Republican party.

I hope so. I find it optimistic though that enough repubs..though still small turned the election.

 

[MT15]

Didn’t know this:

 

[UriUT]

Didn’t know this:

Young voters!

 

[Optimus Prime]

DeSantis is hardly a 'bring the GOP back to normalcy' guy

This seems to be more 'meet the new boss, same as the old boss' situation

He's cut from the same cloth, with more political know how

And I still don't know how DeSantis would play nationally, if he can generate the same slavish devotion and adoration that Trump does. I don't think so

 

[coldseat]

The thing about DeSantis and Republicans winning so big and Florida's elections in general that stood out is how much it went against grain of what happned almost everywhere else in the country. I think that's saying something about the electorate in Florida, that's not going to translate to the rest of the country in a general presidential elections. Specifically, because of much of the Cuban and Latino vote has turned so heavily to Republican in the last two election cycle in Florida, I don't think DeSantis would be able to replicate those margins outside of Florida in a general presidential election. Even in Texas, which DeSantis would win anyway, the Latino vote in the Rio Grande Valley didn't go as heavily Republicans this election cycle as they were anticipating.

It kind of tells me that DeSantis, focusing on "anti-woke" polices and election denial isn't the driver to electoral success in the rest of the country that it is in Florida.