Midterm projections. (2 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Specifically, because of much of the Cuban and Latino vote has turned so heavily to Republican in the last two election cycle in Florida

any theories why that is?

 

[coldseat]

any theories why that is?

There's always been a strong electoral connection between Cubans and Republicans in Florida. But up until about 2019, that had weakened some and Democrats had made inroads. But then 2020 happened and they went heavily back to Republicans.

Many put the blame on Covid and Democrats not having good outreach to Latino community during the pandemic. I've also read that there was/is a lot of misinformation that gets spread though Spanish language radio and programing in Florida that Democrats haven't been effective in combating. It probably also helps that even though Republicans in Florida are trending more extreme following DeSantis, the Republican candidates are more diversified (i.e. more Latino's).

Those are some possible reason, but I don't know for sure. But whatever the reason, I'm not sure it translate to the rest of the country.

 

[zztop]

any theories why that is?

There was some discussion of it previously.
I found a post here (there were a few others)

Post-Election Results Analysis

The election data is always very interesting. Let's have a thread to discuss it so that it doesn't get washed away in the gameday thread.We always suspected that a portion of the Trump vote in 2016 will leave him based on overall distaste with his conduct as president. There appears to be...

madaboutpolitics.com

and one I made regarding this article

In Florida, Spanish-language misinformation pushes misleading Election Day claims

Facebook and YouTube have taken steps to remove QAnon content in English from their platforms, but experts warn there is still a vast amount in Spanish.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[superchuck500]

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

I think DeSantis being so strong is going to cause the main party to get behind him, which is going to piss off Trump. Trump isn't going to go out and campaign for DeSantis he's going to treat him like enemy #1. The party is going to have to choose, and i can't imagine them choosing Trump over DeSantis.

Please consider posting here...

2024 GOP Presidential Race

Many of Trump's endorsed candidates did not do well on Nov. 8th. * Gov. Ron DeSantis DID do well. He won convincingly. Yet in this OP's opinion, Donald Trump is an egomaniac who is seemingly incapable of putting "Party over Self" Trump has ZERO chance of being elected our next president. In my...

madaboutpolitics.com

 

[Maxp]

The Democrats need to toss their leadership and make a campaign to paint the Republican party as the failed "boomer policy" party.

 

[MT15]

Please consider posting here...

2024 GOP Presidential Race

Many of Trump's endorsed candidates did not do well on Nov. 8th. * Gov. Ron DeSantis DID do well. He won convincingly. Yet in this OP's opinion, Donald Trump is an egomaniac who is seemingly incapable of putting "Party over Self" Trump has ZERO chance of being elected our next president. In my...

madaboutpolitics.com

Steve, this may be in a restricted forum. I wasn’t allowed to follow the link. If it’s in the Conservative forum, only Conservatives are allowed there.

 

[SamAndreas]

I see. Well "the done deal" aspect IS that when all races are settled...i think all reasonable and logical people would say the GOP will be the Majority Party in the House.
I mean...come on...
Now it sits at 199 R to 173 D...with only 218 needed to be the majority.
Yes of course it is not over....but I don't see how the Ds could possibly overcome a 199 to 173 lead and propel themselves to the magic 218 number. Let's be realistic @MT15

CALIFORNIA: here we come!

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

Steve, this may be in a restricted forum. I wasn’t allowed to follow the link. If it’s in the Conservative forum, only Conservatives are allowed there.

Yes , that's where I put it.
I did not realize this platform would do that.
@DaveXA ...can you or someone else move my thread to a location where everyone can view it?

 

[Taurus]

Yes , that's where I put it.
I did not realize this platform would do that.
@DaveXA ...can you or someone else move my thread to a location where everyone can view it?

I second the motion. It's an interesting question.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

CALIFORNIA: here we come!

Rs 201
Ds 181
The House Race still looks good for the Rs.
*
@SamAndreas , California is a great place for liberals
Google says the current price of gasoline in California is $5.45 per gallon.
*

Yahoo News: Latest and Breaking News, Headlines, Live Updates, and More

The latest news and headlines from Yahoo News. Get breaking news stories and in-depth coverage with videos and photos.

news.yahoo.com

 

[Optimus Prime]

MSN

 

[DaveXA]

MSN

Music to my ears. Anything that needles Trump is good by me.

 

[Taurus]

MSN

Good. Maybe he'll have a stroke.

 

[moderatemod]

Yes , that's where I put it.
I did not realize this platform would do that.
@DaveXA ...can you or someone else move my thread to a location where everyone can view it?

Moved to MCB per request.

 

[UriUT]

The thing about DeSantis and Republicans winning so big and Florida's elections in general that stood out is how much it went against grain of what happned almost everywhere else in the country. I think that's saying something about the electorate in Florida, that's not going to translate to the rest of the country in a general presidential elections. Specifically, because of much of the Cuban and Latino vote has turned so heavily to Republican in the last two election cycle in Florida, I don't think DeSantis would be able to replicate those margins outside of Florida in a general presidential election. Even in Texas, which DeSantis would win anyway, the Latino vote in the Rio Grande Valley didn't go as heavily Republicans this election cycle as they were anticipating.

It kind of tells me that DeSantis, focusing on "anti-woke" polices and election denial isn't the driver to electoral success in the rest of the country that it is in Florida.

This is what a guess on NPR said. Economy bc they opposed the shutdown in a tourism based state and a great repub ground game.

 

[SFIDC3]

The way you wrote it made it seem like you were saying it was a done deal which is why she responded.

It’s a pattern with him, counting stuff before the hatching is completed….

 

[GrandAdmiral]

CNN has called Wisconsin for Johnson. That's some ballot-splitting there. As stated before, I can guess of only one true reason why.