Midterm projections. (5 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[SamAndreas]

Rs 201
Ds 181
The House Race still looks good for the Rs.
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@SamAndreas , California is a great place for liberals
Google says the current price of gasoline in California is $5.45 per gallon.
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Yahoo News: Latest and Breaking News, Headlines, Live Updates, and More

The latest news and headlines from Yahoo News. Get breaking news stories and in-depth coverage with videos and photos.

news.yahoo.com

Yes and about half of the house races in California have not been called YET.

I live in the mountains where they really do some serious price gouging, and yet our current price is only $4.99. I saw considerably higher prices than that back in 2008 before Obama was elected.

For a little while this year the highest prices we had did get slightly above that old 2008 record, but just for a few days. So let's not talk about Biden anymore, and bring up George W Bush as having been the undisputed king of high gas prices in California, because if one takes in inflation since 2008, gas prices here are much lower than they were back in 2008.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Google says the current price of gasoline in California is $5.45 per gallon.

What do you think a member of the House can do about gas prices?

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

Yes and about half of the house races in California have not been called YET.

I live in the mountains where they really do some serious price gouging, and yet our current price is only $4.99. I saw considerably higher prices than that back in 2008 before Obama was elected.

For a little while this year the highest prices we had did get slightly above that old 2008 record, but just for a few days. So let's not talk about Biden anymore, and bring up George W Bush as having been the undisputed king of high gas prices in California, because if one takes in inflation since 2008, gas prices here are much lower than they were back in 2008.

Go to Google...put in its search engine "Average Gas price in California"

AAA Gas Prices

gasprices.aaa.com

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and.....Yahoo has the House situation currently at:
Rs 204
Ds 187

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news.yahoo.com

 

[SamAndreas]

Go to Google...put in its search engine "Average Gas price in California"

AAA Gas Prices

gasprices.aaa.com

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and.....Yahoo has the House situation currently at:
Rs 204
Ds 187

2024 U.S. Election - Latest News and Updates on Presidential and State Races

Get the latest updates on the 2024 U.S. Election. Stay informed with fast facts, candidate updates, and key takeaways on the issues, all in one place.

news.yahoo.com

Why would you think I would regard what AAA through Google would say would Trump what I can see with mine own eyes?

For years when I've been down in the valley I've bought gas there because I know that up here in the hills we always have the highest prices.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

I simply posted two valid hyper links.
These are not my opinions.
AAA and Yahoo.
2 valid sources.
Unsure why these two sources cause you to reply with

Aha. You just answered my question.
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But @SamAndreas
You mention that what you see with your own eyes is more believable than AAA.
Yet you do not see every gas station in the incredibly enormous state of California.
What you've seen lately "with your own eyes" probably amounts to 0.5% of California at best.
I think AAA is in a stronger position than you are to inform the public as to what is the AVERAGE price for the ENTIRE STATE of California.

 

[MT15]

This is truly stupid language.

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

[J-DONK]

Yeah it's a low chance that Dems keep the house, but Trump was by far the biggest loser.

 

[Lapaz]

There's always been a strong electoral connection between Cubans and Republicans in Florida. But up until about 2019, that had weakened some and Democrats had made inroads. But then 2020 happened and they went heavily back to Republicans.

Many put the blame on Covid and Democrats not having good outreach to Latino community during the pandemic. I've also read that there was/is a lot of misinformation that gets spread though Spanish language radio and programing in Florida that Democrats haven't been effective in combating. It probably also helps that even though Republicans in Florida are trending more extreme following DeSantis, the Republican candidates are more diversified (i.e. more Latino's).

Those are some possible reason, but I don't know for sure. But whatever the reason, I'm not sure it translate to the rest of the country.

Almost all of my Cuban family is Republican. I think the vast majority of the support for Republicans is the anti-socialist sentiment due to communist Cuba. They think Democrats are socialists. There is also lingering anger about the Bay of Pigs. There are irrational reasons such as anti-immigration even though most are immigrants, but Cubans often think they're better than other immigrants, and they deserve special treatment. Disinformation is definitely a factor, and it gets amplified within the community. I've rarely heard a rationale basis for their Republican support such as a belief in supply side politics, or being anti-abortion, or wanting deregulation, etc. It tends to be irrational and misinformed.

 

[J-DONK]

Almost all of my Cuban family is Republican. I think the vast majority of the support for Republicans is the anti-socialist sentiment due to communist Cuba. They think Democrats are socialists. There is also lingering anger about the Bay of Pigs. There are irrational reasons such as anti-immigration even though most are immigrants, but Cubans often think they're better than other immigrants, and they deserve special treatment. Disinformation is definitely a factor, and it gets amplified within the community. I've rarely heard a rationale basis for their Republican support such as a belief in supply side politics, or being anti-abortion, or wanting deregulation, etc. It tends to be irrational and misinformed.

I do wonder what's going to change with our Cuban policy now that Florida isn't a swing state. Cuban's no longer hold any real power, and are a very small minority overall.

 

[J-DONK]

Biden in his presser sounds like he is genuinely undecided on running in 2024.

 

[samiam5211]

Aha. You just answered my question.
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But @SamAndreas
You mention that what you see with your own eyes is more believable than AAA.
Yet you do not see every gas station in the incredibly enormous state of California.
What you've seen lately "with your own eyes" probably amounts to 0.5% of California at best.
I think AAA is in a stronger position than you are to inform the public as to what is the AVERAGE price for the ENTIRE STATE of California.

It seems like you are more interested in how much gas costs in California than the guy who lives there.

 

[Lapaz]

I do wonder what's going to change with our Cuban policy now that Florida isn't a swing state. Cuban's no longer hold any real power, and are a very small minority overall.

I wouldn't give Florida away to the Republicans. I don't think Crist was a good candidate. I don't think Democrats were excited about him. I think Florida is still close to 50/50. Trump only got 51.2% of the vote, while Obama won both years. I don't think Biden would win Florida, but a strong Democratic candidate can win it.

Florida Presidential Election Voting History - 270toWin

Information on how the residents of Florida have voted in presidential elections. Includes trends and polls for the 2020 election, as well as a Florida voting history and narrative.

www.270towin.com

As far as policy, I hope we continue to improve relations with Cuba, and drop the embargo. I think most of Florida will benefit, and even Cubans may realize the benefit.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

It seems like you are more interested in how much gas costs in California than the guy who lives there.

But teacher....he started it

 

[bdb13]

Independents broke for Democrats over Republicans in the 2022 midterms by 4 percentage points nationally, according to a comprehensive survey from NORC at the University of Chicago that polled tens of thousands of voters during the election cycle for The Associated Press.

In key battleground states, independents supported Democrats by an even wider margin than on the national level, according to polling numbers reported by The Wall Street Journal, a recipient of the national NORC survey.

In Pennsylvania, independents broke for Democrats by 18 points, and they supported the party over the GOP by 28 points in Georgia and 30 points in Arizona.

Democrats had a surprisingly good night, outperforming expectations and beating back a number of Republican challengers in several vulnerable House and Senate races.

Independents broke for Democrats by 4 points in midterms: AP survey

Independents broke for Democrats over Republicans in the 2022 midterms by 4 percentage points nationally, according to a comprehensive survey from NORC at the University of Chicago that polled tens…

thehill.com

 

[SamAndreas]

Aha. You just answered my question.
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But @SamAndreas
You mention that what you see with your own eyes is more believable than AAA.
Yet you do not see every gas station in the incredibly enormous state of California.
What you've seen lately "with your own eyes" probably amounts to 0.5% of California at best.
I think AAA is in a stronger position than you are to inform the public as to what is the AVERAGE price for the ENTIRE STATE of California.

Don't you realize when you've lost an argument. You must be a band director to be so ignorantly stubborn that way.

My junior year our band director lost the confidence of our band. (Poor guy). I kind of liked him. His issue was that he was gay. (He was actually gay, I knew it for years, other people just didn't know it.) He was my neighbor about a half mile from my house, and I had been at his house many times. Yes he was gay, but he didn't deserve what came next. All from conservatives no less.

Liberals didn't care.

Every morning for an entire semester at the end of my Junior year our band members, (not me), would raid classrooms from all across the campus of their blackboard erasers. Then they would bring those erasers into first period band. It was our conservative band members who were acting that way. It was that he was gay that this was happening.

As soon as our band dictator raised his baton, he'd be pummeled with about two hundred blackboard erasers and all of that chalk dust which they contained. Every day going on for months.

Eventually he figured out the bulk of the band wanted him gone and he quit. He had to. It was going to become rough if he didn't abide with our band's majority verdict. (Not my verdict, I knew he was gay all along and I rather liked him.)

It happened, I was there, and that was a fact.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Everything costs more in California. It's California. I consistently see gas prices in New Orleans around $3 to $3.20 which strikes me as not particularly high given inflation.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Also doesn't look like Boebert will be going back to OnlyFans anytime soon. 96% of the vote in and she is now only behind by 62 votes.