Midterm projections. (1 Viewer)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Murdoch about to be Trump's Walder Frey.

Murdoch has definitely turned on him. This is the front page of the New York Post under the headline "TOXIC TRUMP."

 

[DaveXA]

You'll know Fox has turned on him when every photo of Trump is unflattering. You'll know they've decided to simp for DeSantis when he looks like Apollo in every pic.

Yeah, I'm no fan of DeSantis, but I would absolutely take him over Trump. Whatever makes Trump go away, I'm good with.

That said, I can't see myself voting for him in the general election. The Democratic candidate would have to be a Trumper version of the left for me to vote DeSantis, and I don't see that happening.

 

[J-DONK]

Man, this feels like karma. If Dems keep the House, or Senate make no mistake this was a massive L for Trump, and Republicans. They should have won 40+ seats, and easily taken control of the senate. They passed a bunch of extremist, and wildly unpopular abortion laws. Abortion was cited as one of the key issues in PA. A state were Republicans got drummed. They also refused to impeach Trump over Jan. 6. The election deniers got wiped out. Now, they face the reality of an orange albatross for 2024. They won't find a more motivating social issue then Dem's have with abortion.

The stages of grief have already started. Candice Owens put out some kind of weird piece begging Donald to accept the 2020 results.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

GOP nudges closer to House win; Senate could hinge on runoff

Republicans inched closer to a narrow House majority Wednesday, while control of the Senate hinged on a few tight races in a midterm election that defied expectations of sweeping conservative victories driven by frustration over inflation and President Joe Biden’s leadership.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Maxp]

If Boebert loses, she will inevitably cry election fraud. I am willing to bet when the votes are scrutinized the actual fraud favored her.

 

[efil4]

Man, this feels like karma. If Dems keep the House, or Senate make no mistake this was a massive L for Trump, and Republicans. They should have won 40+ seats, and easily taken control of the senate. They passed a bunch of extremist, and wildly unpopular abortion laws. Abortion was cited as one of the key issues in PA. A state were Republicans got drummed. They also refused to impeach Trump over Jan. 6. The election deniers got wiped out. Now, they face the reality of an orange albatross for 2024. They won't find a more motivating social issue then Dem's have with abortion.

The stages of grief have already started. Candice Owens put out some kind of weird piece begging Donald to accept the 2020 results.

2022 was a referendum on "crazy". Voters are starting to sour on this toxic political landscape. As with most things "novel", they tend to wane over time ( aka SARS COV2 or Trumps brand of crazy, or fidget spinners, etc etc ) They are fads. Nothing redeeming that will keep them around and out in front for long.

2022 Voters are beginning to tell the politicians, by vote, we are getting tired of all the BS. I suspect if subjected to more of the same toxic, attacking, false/conspiratorial rhetoric between now and 2024, it will be an even larger defeat.

The 15 min for most of these folks is up.

 

[MT15]

My only silver lining if the Rs end up taking the House, and there is still a chance that they won’t, is that they will act like such fools that the voters will get more and more disgusted with them. The House is just full of Trumpy crazy Rs.

 

[superchuck500]

2022 was a referendum on "crazy". Voters are starting to sour on this toxic political landscape. As with most things "novel", they tend to wane over time ( aka SARS COV2 or Trumps brand of crazy, or fidget spinners, etc etc ) They are fads. Nothing redeeming that will keep them around and out in front for long.

2022 Voters are beginning to tell the politicians, by vote, we are getting tired of all the BS. I suspect if subjected to more of the same toxic, attacking, false/conspiratorial rhetoric between now and 2024, it will be an even larger defeat.

The 15 min for most of these folks is up.

I saw really good analysis yesterday that said that what the "red wave" got wrong was that moderate-minded, independent-minded, or even "traditional" GOP types simply aren't on-board with the full slate of MAGA/DeepRed positions, despite some real issues for the Biden administration that typically harm the party in the White House when it comes to midterms.

These voters are simply not for denying 2020 or installing new repressive voting control systems, they're not for reactionary total abortion bans, they're not investigations of Hunter Biden and Dr. Fauci. This is why the MAGA candidates have done poorly, especially in areas where they were susceptible and even in a few where they were thought to be safe. And why the same weakness wasn't seen by Republicans that are sufficiently distanced from Trump and the MAGA slate of positions (DeSantis, Kemp, the House candidates in New York, etc.).

 

[bdb13]

My only silver lining if the Rs end up taking the House, and there is still a chance that they won’t, is that they will act like such fools that the voters will get more and more disgusted with them. The House is just full of Trumpy crazy Rs.

Don't worry, they're definitely going to run with all that stuff listed in Chuck's post above and they'll continue to turn off most anyone who's not forking crazy like they are.

 

[Optimus Prime]

any updates on Arizona Gov race? feel like I haven't heard anything since yesterday morning

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

I saw really good analysis yesterday that said that what the "red wave" got wrong was that moderate-minded, independent-minded, or even "traditional" GOP types simply aren't on-board with the full slate of MAGA/DeepRed positions, despite some real issues for the Biden administration that typically harm the party in the White House when it comes to midterms.

These voters are simply not for denying 2020 or installing new repressive voting control systems, they're not for reactionary total abortion bans, they're not investigations of Hunter Biden and Dr. Fauci. This is why the MAGA candidates have done poorly, especially in areas where they were susceptible and even in a few where they were thought to be safe. And why the same weakness wasn't seen by Republicans that are sufficiently distanced from Trump and the MAGA slate of positions (DeSantis, Kemp, the House candidates in New York, etc.).

THIS poster's thoughts are what I've always hoped for.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

THIS poster's thoughts are what I've always hoped for.

Yes!
@MT15

Republicans ARE turning against Trump.

Trump Under Fire From Within GOP After Midterms

Donald Trump faced unusual public attacks from across the Republican Party on Wednesday after a string of midterm losses by candidates he had handpicked and supported, a display of weakness as he prepared to announce a third presidential campaign as soon as next week. As the sheer number of...

www.yahoo.com

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It should have happened long ago!

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

Yes!
@MT15

Republicans ARE turning against Trump.

Trump Under Fire From Within GOP After Midterms

Donald Trump faced unusual public attacks from across the Republican Party on Wednesday after a string of midterm losses by candidates he had handpicked and supported, a display of weakness as he prepared to announce a third presidential campaign as soon as next week. As the sheer number of...

www.yahoo.com

*
It should have happened long ago!

There is even a story on Yahoo with the title: "Trump blames Melania for 'poor advice' on Dr. Oz"
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Trump is such an unlikable person. His character flaws know no bounds.

 

[DaveXA]

any updates on Arizona Gov race? feel like I haven't heard anything since yesterday morning

Nothing significant. There's still over 400k votes/ballots to count. Probably will be another 2-3 days before the picture is clearer there. I suspect there are more Democratic than Republican votes outstanding, so the current picture should hold there. Arizona is much needed because then all they'd have to do is split between Nevada and Georgia if they win Arizona.

 

[superchuck500]

Quite a thread about the experience of a grass roots, door to door campaign by a Democrat in Missouri.

 

[MT15]

Quite a thread about the experience of a grass roots, door to door campaign by a Democrat in Missouri.

That is concerning. Once these rural churches start giving out this type of misinformation I’m not sure what will turn the tide. I wonder if efforts could be made to reach the pastors, knowing that every pastor will influence many people? Surely not all the pastors in these rural churches are preaching hate.

 

[SFIDC3]

There is even a story on Yahoo with the title: "Trump blames Melania for 'poor advice' on Dr. Oz"
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Trump is such an unlikable person. His character flaws know no bounds.

Fine, I think we would all like him to get the karma he deserves….the much larger problem is I don’t trust the Republicans to put someone just as bad or worse on the national stage….DeSantis is a danger to democracy as well, if you don’t see that maybe you need to take your party blinders off…..

 

[bdb13]

Fine, I think we would all like him to get the karma he deserves….the much larger problem is I don’t trust the Republicans to put someone just as bad or worse on the national stage….DeSantis is a danger to democracy as well, if you don’t see that maybe you need to take your party blinders off…..

I'm unconvinced to this point that he's anywhere near the threat that Trump is though.