Midterm projections. (11 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

That Twitter account, though...

Also, still a few thousand or so ballots left to count in that race. Another good local news Twitter feed:

 

[GrandAdmiral]

That is concerning. Once these rural churches start giving out this type of misinformation I’m not sure what will turn the tide. I wonder if efforts could be made to reach the pastors, knowing that every pastor will influence many people? Surely not all the pastors in these rural churches are preaching hate.

Yeah. I'm in healthcare and our CFO and her mom attends one of these said churches. I remember when Trump was elected, she said she had some concerns but ultimately voted for him because she felt he had more Christian beliefs than he let on and especially more than HRC based on stuff they talked about in church. Every once in a while she comes back with another and I simply have to ask her, "Why are you here then? Do you not understand the population this organization serves (Medicaid and uninsured patients are who we most treat)?"

As someone who has spent some time in a Catholic seminary, I know the effects religion can have on one's life. But evangelical churches take things to the extreme and that's really dangerous.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

Regarding settling the House Seats....as of 2pm EST it is...
Rs 211
Ds 193
*

Yahoo News: Latest and Breaking News, Headlines, Live Updates, and More

The latest news and headlines from Yahoo News. Get breaking news stories and in-depth coverage with videos and photos.

news.yahoo.com

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

Yeah. I'm in healthcare and our CFO and her mom attends one of these said churches. I remember when Trump was elected, she said she had some concerns but ultimately voted for him because she felt he had more Christian beliefs than he let on and especially more than HRC based on stuff they talked about in church. Every once in a while she comes back with another and I simply have to ask her, "Why are you here then? Do you not understand the population this organization serves (Medicaid and uninsured patients are who we most treat)?"

As someone who has spent some time in a Catholic seminary, I know the effects religion can have on one's life. But evangelical churches take things to the extreme and that's really dangerous.

Well, it would be dishonest of me to pretend I knew what someone else's beliefs are, but I can see how they act. Based on personal actions I would say HRC is more Christian than Trump. I suspect your CFO, and many other Christians, have a need to fool themselves. What's amazing is how many succeeded.

 

[SFIDC3]

"A danger to democracy"
DeSantis?
No.
If Trump does not run as an independent(which would siphon away some votes from the GOP nominee) and IF DeSantis is the GOP nominee, then DeSantis might be "A danger" to your hopes to have a Democrat in the White House.
DeSantis (if elected) would be a president in a 3 branch constitutional system and he would not be a "danger to democracy".

Coming from someone that was misguided enough to vote for Trump your opinion really means nothing to me….The only thing you are showing here is that you either a) Don’t know enough about DeSantis and who he really is or (more likely) b) you don’t care because he has an R next to his name….

And before you say (wrongly again) that it’s because I want a Dem in office….if the wrong Dem ran, I would have zero problem voting for a Larry Hogan type of R…..

 

[Lapaz]

Because Trump proved in Jan. 2020 and is proving now that he is an egomaniac.
He HAS to have power.
He HAS to have adoration.
He'll do anything to keep all that.
Including throwing Mike Pence under the bus when the capital police were being overwhelmed.
Including doing plenty of stuff that seemed illegal to me.
DeSantis is just a good politician who will not be like Trump was in Jan. of 2020.
He won't.
Painting him with the same brush as Trump will not work with people like me.
You can maybe get some thumbs up from fellow liberals on madaboutpolitics
........but people who historically vote Republican will not be swayed by your viewpoint.

I can’t stand DeSantis, but I agree with you that he isn’t as bad as Trump. Until he shows a willingness to ally with anyone, even Russia, or when he starts showing admiration for authoritarians, or when he starts trying to undermine our checks and balances, I think he’s just an old style right winger. I can deal with that, because democracy will survive that.

 

[Lapaz]

Calm down, I simply asked a question. I have no expectations that my post/opinions will sway you or any other Republicans.

But you are wrong. DeSantis is a huge egomaniac. I will also unequivocally state that I saw and knew what Trump was before the 2016 election. I didn't need 4 years and an insurrection to convince me what he was. Maybe a little introspection from you and other Republicans on the similarities between Trump and DeSantis would help you all avoid the same mistake with DeSantis. But I won't hold my breath.

Most people that run for the presidency are egomaniacs. One can be a law abiding egomaniac. The stunt with using Florida’s money to transport Texas’ immigrants is a sign that he may not be law abiding, but it isn’t overwhelming evidence.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

I can’t stand DeSantis, but I agree with you that he isn’t as bad as Trump. Until he shows a willingness to ally with anyone, even Russia, or when he starts showing admiration for authoritarians, or when he starts trying to undermine our checks and balances, I think he’s just an old style right winger. I can deal with that, because democracy will survive that.

Very well put. A much needed dose of sanity. Democracy would survive.

 

[SystemShock]

That is concerning. Once these rural churches start giving out this type of misinformation I’m not sure what will turn the tide.

Atheism.

 

[MT15]

Most people that run for the presidency are egomaniacs. One can be a law abiding egomaniac. The stunt with using Florida’s money to transport Texas’ immigrants is a sign that he may not be law abiding, but it isn’t overwhelming evidence.

He has had some troubling accusations of ethical misconduct. Steering state contracts toward political allies while disregarding state regulations on rewarding of contracts. He doesn’t hesitate to demonize a free press. He threatens companies with economic issues if they disagree with him publicly. His re-do of the map that his own legislature drew up was problematic, and may have been illegal. He didn’t hesitate to waste $12M of taxpayer money on a political stunt.

I don’t know if he’s as dangerous as Trump, hopefully not, but he seems to be fairly ethics-free. He makes autocratic noises.

 

[MT15]

Yes!
@MT15

Republicans ARE turning against Trump.

Trump Under Fire From Within GOP After Midterms

Donald Trump faced unusual public attacks from across the Republican Party on Wednesday after a string of midterm losses by candidates he had handpicked and supported, a display of weakness as he prepared to announce a third presidential campaign as soon as next week. As the sheer number of...

www.yahoo.com

*
It should have happened long ago!

I want to be hopeful, but if the R Party couldn’t get rid of him after Jan. 6, what would make them have the courage to do it now? He was “under fire” for about a week or so back then, it didn’t take.

We will see if DeSantis has any political courage soon.

 

[SystemShock]

I can’t stand DeSantis, but I agree with you that he isn’t as bad as Trump. Until he shows a willingness to ally with anyone, even Russia, or when he starts showing admiration for authoritarians, or when he starts trying to undermine our checks and balances, I think he’s just an old style right winger. I can deal with that, because democracy will survive that.

When he starts to undermine checks and balances? Where have you been?

He has the smarts to do damage where it counts, and has a 6-3 SCOTUS and House to back him up.

 

[Lapaz]

He has had some troubling accusations of ethical misconduct. Steering state contracts toward political allies while disregarding state regulations on rewarding of contracts. He doesn’t hesitate to demonize a free press. He threatens companies with economic issues if they disagree with him publicly. His re-do of the map that his own legislature drew up was problematic, and may have been illegal. He didn’t hesitate to waste $12M of taxpayer money on a political stunt.

I don’t know if he’s as dangerous as Trump, hopefully not, but he seems to be fairly ethics-free. He makes autocratic noises.

Those are good points. They would be horrible if we were comparing him to a normal politician, who generally is already questionable, but Trump is so much worse than any other politician that I’ve ever witnessed, that I can’t put DeSantis at that depth yet. It is like comparing anyone to Hitler or a nazi. There have been lots of horrible tyrants since Hitler, but he was the worst. DeSantis may also be dangerous, especially because he is much smarter, but I’m not convinced we would lose democracy with him. The things you mentioned enriched him and his cronies, and have given Republicans an edge, but that is more like what normal sleezy politicians do. That’s not what traitors do. I think Trump is a traitor. I don’t have a reason to believe that about DeSantis.

 

[Lapaz]

When he starts to undermine checks and balances? Where have you been?

He has the smarts to do damage where it counts, and has a 6-3 SCOTUS and House to back him up.

What checks and balances has he undermined?

 

[Optimus Prime]

Right-wing RepublicanKari Lake has gone on a media blitz claiming she has already won the race for governor in Arizona, despite results showing she still trails Katie Hobbs.

As of Thursday morning, Ms Hobbs, a Democrat, had 50.3 per cent of the votes counted to 49.7 per cent for Ms Lake, a pro-Trump former TV broadcaster.

The difference in votes counted for the two candidates in the state currently stands at more than 13,000.

Election denier Ms Lake appeared on the Charlie Kirk show and said she was “frustrated” and found the running of elections in her state to be “embarrassing.”.

“Now, I feel 100 per cent confident we are going to win this, I hate that they’re slow-rolling and dragging their feet and delaying the inevitable. They don’t want to put out the truth, which is that we won,” she said…….

Kari Lake goes on media blitz to insist she’s already won Arizona governor election

Pro-Trump former TV anchor actually still behind Katie Hobbs by more than 13,000 votes

www.independent.co.uk

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

I want to be hopeful, but if the R Party couldn’t get rid of him after Jan. 6, what would make them have the courage to do it now? He was “under fire” for about a week or so back then, it didn’t take.

We will see if DeSantis has any political courage soon.

Here is my theory why now will be different.
So many Trump followers seemingly thought the Jan 6th Committee was just a witch hunt. These Trumpers did not pay attention to those hearings....and if they did happen to hear something against Trump, they would just shrug it off because they thought it was a lie or a distortion put out by witch hunters.
Yet today it is possibly sinking into these folks that Trump is a loser. He cannot be their champion on Inauguration Day / Jan 2025. Now Trump will hopefully be seen as a ticket to a guaranteed Democratic Presidency after the 2024 election. His loss would cause Four More Years of Joe Biden or if Biden doesn't run...4 years of some other Democrat that they won't like.
Sure some Trumpers will go to their grave blindly following him. Yet I'm HOPING that with each passing week, more and more of his long time supporters will wake up and smell the coffee. I hope they will once and for all see that Trump has no future....he is unelectable in a general election....he has far too much baggage....and hopefully they will just walk away from him.

 

[Lapaz]

Here is my theory why now will be different.
So many Trump followers seemingly thought the Jan 6th Committee was just a witch hunt. These Trumpers did not pay attention to those hearings....and if they did happen to hear something against Trump, they would just shrug it off because they thought it was a lie or a distortion put out by witch hunters.
Yet today it is possibly sinking into these folks that Trump is a loser. He cannot be their champion on Inauguration Day / Jan 2025. Now Trump will hopefully be seen as a ticket to a guaranteed Democratic Presidency after the 2024 election. He'll lose a cause Four more years of Joe Biden or if Biden doesn't run...4 years of some other Democrat that they won't like.
Sure some Trumpers will go to their grave with him. Yet I'm HOPING that with each passing week, some of his long time supporters will wake up and smell the coffee. I hope they will once and for all see that Trump has no future....he is unelectable in a general election....he has far too much baggage....and hopefully they will just walk away from him.

I think you're right. I'm torn, because I think Trump would be easy to beat, but the slightest chance that he could win is unacceptable. I want anyone other than a MAGA candidate to win the Republican primary, because I want the country to be in the hands of a sane person regardless of his party.