Midterm projections. (1 Viewer)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[DaveXA]

It was mentioned in another thread. Georgia had a large turnout due to the Governors race. Walker didn't
get the same support as Kemp

Yeah, the runoff really favors Warnock. I suspect the Democratic candidates in all 3 remaining states will win. The numbers just aren't favorable to the Republican candidates with the bulk of the remaining uncounted votes in Democratic counties/precients.

 

[Optimus Prime]

There's actually been much less of this than I thought there would be
===========================================

The GOP's nominee for Maryland's attorney general has refused to concede, despite trailing his opponent by more than 300,000 votes.

Hard-right candidate Michael Peroutka lost his race to Democrat Anthony Brown late on Tuesday, per the Associated Press. As of Friday, Maryland reported 100% of the votes counted, showing Brown with 60.71% of the vote.

Both Brown — and Democrat Wes Moore — made history as the state's first Black attorney general and governor, respectively.

Following his loss, Perouta emailed supporters saying he will not concede, suggesting that electoral fraud had taken place, according to The Washington Post. A version of that statement was also posted to a Facebook page attributed to his campaign.

"During yesterday's voting, many odd and suspicious incidents were reported by poll watchers, and more reports are being gathered today," it read.

It added that Perouta plans to "investigate these strange occurrences and I do not plan to concede the race."............

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[Taurus]

There's actually been much less of this than I thought they would be
===========================================

The GOP's nominee for Maryland's attorney general has refused to concede, despite trailing his opponent by more than 300,000 votes.

Hard-right candidate Michael Peroutka lost his race to Democrat Anthony Brown late on Tuesday, per the Associated Press. As of Friday, Maryland reported 100% of the votes counted, showing Brown with 60.71% of the vote.

Both Brown — and Democrat Wes Moore — made history as the state's first Black attorney general and governor, respectively.

Following his loss, Perouta emailed supporters saying he will not concede, suggesting that electoral fraud had taken place, according to The Washington Post. A version of that statement was also posted to a Facebook page attributed to his campaign.

"During yesterday's voting, many odd and suspicious incidents were reported by poll watchers, and more reports are being gathered today," it read.

It added that Perouta plans to "investigate these strange occurrences and I do not plan to concede the race."............

MSN

www.msn.com

An owl was heard to hoot in the daylight, spiders spun webs widdershins and a two-headed calf was born beneath a russet moon, surely the portents of...election fraud!

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

[SFIDC3]

There's actually been much less of this than I thought they would be
===========================================

The GOP's nominee for Maryland's attorney general has refused to concede, despite trailing his opponent by more than 300,000 votes.

Hard-right candidate Michael Peroutka lost his race to Democrat Anthony Brown late on Tuesday, per the Associated Press. As of Friday, Maryland reported 100% of the votes counted, showing Brown with 60.71% of the vote.

Both Brown — and Democrat Wes Moore — made history as the state's first Black attorney general and governor, respectively.

Following his loss, Perouta emailed supporters saying he will not concede, suggesting that electoral fraud had taken place, according to The Washington Post. A version of that statement was also posted to a Facebook page attributed to his campaign.

"During yesterday's voting, many odd and suspicious incidents were reported by poll watchers, and more reports are being gathered today," it read.

It added that Perouta plans to "investigate these strange occurrences and I do not plan to concede the race."............

MSN

www.msn.com

What a delusional asshat….MD (my former state) never elects hard right wingers…the only Repubs that ever get elected to anything there are moderates….and they are few and far between….in a way I’m glad…expose the crazy…..

 

[B4YOU]

What a delusional asshat….MD (my former state) never elects hard right wingers…the only Repubs that ever get elected to anything there are moderates….and they are few and far between….in a way I’m glad…expose the crazy…..

Looks like David Trone (D-MD) is steadily closing the gap and may hold onto his seat.

 

[faceman]

What a delusional asshat….MD (my former state) never elects hard right wingers…the only Repubs that ever get elected to anything there are moderates….and they are few and far between….in a way I’m glad…expose the crazy…..

You mentioned Larry Hogan yesterday. I don't agree with everything he says,but he is a Republican I can get behind.
Susan Collins Sen from Maine is another. She is considered by both parties as a swing vote. I just wish there were
more of them. Below is a great video of Hogan.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Hogan is sort of delusional in thinking a moderate Republican like himself will gain any traction even in a Trump-less GOP.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

I really don't get some of the ticket-splitting in these midterms. Mandela Barnes lost by only 27,000 or so votes in Wisconsin yet the Democratic incumbent governor won. In Arizona, Katie Hobbs currently has about 27,000 less votes than Mark Kelly with 78% of the vote counted. Who would vote for Kelly for Senate but then turn around and vote for bat shirt crazy Kari Lake for governor?

 

[GrandAdmiral]

I really don't get some of the ticket-splitting in these midterms. Mandela Barnes lost by only 27,000 or so votes in Wisconsin yet the Democratic incumbent governor won. In Arizona, Katie Hobbs currently has about 27,000 less votes than Mark Kelly with 78% of the vote counted. Who would vote for Kelly for Senate but then turn around and vote for bat shirt crazy Kari Lake for governor?

Kari Lake is tougher to answer, but if we're honest, we know why Barnes lost by that number.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Kari Lake is tougher to answer, but if we're honest, we know why Barnes lost by that number.

Indeed. Hate that foolishness. So close to picking up another seat and booting Ron Johnson.

 

[Saintman2884]

I’m pretty sure most poll workers are volunteers. With the current threatening climate against poll workers, particularly from MAGA people, it’s a tall order to expect more hours and people. Also, I would worry about mass hiring, because the system has to assure that no corrupt people are hired, and those hired monitored closely.

With that said, we may be impatient to learn the result, but a few days or even a couple of weeks of extra counting is not a problem.

Despite threats against poll workers in some areas, they were no actual attacks and given the high security in these midterms, I think law enforcement could handle the job of protecting more volunteer poll workers.

Corruption is a possibility but so is the inane argument used by MAGA politicians and Trump supporters that mass voter fraud is a systemic issue and logic and facts clearly says it isnt. Hiring more people may raise risk of random voter fraud a little or maybe mistakes being made, but if the poll watchers, volunteers are being promptly watched right now effectively, I don't think a few more will hurt or be problematic.

 

[Saintman2884]

Indeed. Hate that foolishness. So close to picking up another seat and booting Ron Johnson.

Hey, we can't complain about tough, competitive races that didn't go our way . Close to 50% of this year's midterms House/Senate/Gov races were close or very close competitive races where even the eventual losers, Rep. or Dem, lost by relatively small or slim margins or were at one point winning these races. You take wins where you can, consolidate them, and move forward.

Besides, Mark Kelly likely will win re-election for Senate and it will be confirmed today, so that's a pickup and regardless of who wins in the Nevada Senate race(which will be a much closer, competitive race), the Georgia runoff special election next month will either decide if Dems still have a narrow 1-seat Senate advantage or perhaps maybe two.

 

[DaveXA]

Hogan is sort of delusional in thinking a moderate Republican like himself will gain any traction even in a Trump-less GOP.

It's much needed though. Even if not suitable for a primary run, at some point the party will have to get moderates on board if they're gonna control things anytime soon.

 

[DaveXA]

I really don't get some of the ticket-splitting in these midterms. Mandela Barnes lost by only 27,000 or so votes in Wisconsin yet the Democratic incumbent governor won. In Arizona, Katie Hobbs currently has about 27,000 less votes than Mark Kelly with 78% of the vote counted. Who would vote for Kelly for Senate but then turn around and vote for bat shirt crazy Kari Lake for governor?

I dunno, I used to vote split ticket all the time. I won't vote for a Trumper type Republican, but I might vote for a moderate one.

 

[SFIDC3]

It's much needed though. Even if not suitable for a primary run, at some point the party will have to get moderates on board if they're gonna control things anytime soon.

I agree, it’s the only path they have to get back to something resembling sane…..

 

[bdb13]

It's much needed though. Even if not suitable for a primary run, at some point the party will have to get moderates on board if they're gonna control things anytime soon.

There's the rub with the echo chambers that these people tend to live in.. when everyone you surround yourself with and everything you watch and read is approximately as extreme on the issues as you are, it ends up in a place where moderates are viewed as just another subset who are in support of the 'liberal agenda.'

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

Why are these #s the same as 24 hours ago?

2024 U.S. Election - Latest News and Updates on Presidential and State Races

Get the latest updates on the 2024 U.S. Election. Stay informed with fast facts, candidate updates, and key takeaways on the issues, all in one place.

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Is it that one or two states are Counting paper ballots super slowly?
Arizona? Nevada? Other(s)?