Midterm projections. (4 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[faceman]

Coming from someone that was misguided enough to vote for Trump your opinion really means nothing to me….The only thing you are showing here is that you either a) Don’t know enough about DeSantis and who he really is or (more likely) b) you don’t care because he has an R next to his name….

And before you say (wrongly again) that it’s because I want a Dem in office….if the wrong Dem ran, I would have zero problem voting for a Larry Hogan type of R…..

I'm the same. Without knowing me personally those who read my posts could swear I'm a dyed in the wool Democrat.
That's not true. I have no problems voting for a Rep. if the right one runs. Hogan is a good man. I felt I was on a
lifeboat surrounded by the Trump titanic was one of his quotes.

Below is a good article stating why the biggest winner in the midterms were moderates.

How Moderates Won the Midterms

A lesson for any party that wants to succeed in 2024

www.theatlantic.com

 

[J-DONK]

Don't forget DeSantis isn't above a little human trafficking for a political stunt.

DeSantis, Abbott have long, personal histories with immigration

Police officers protected the migrants. Volunteers and city workers asked about their housing, food and medical needs.

www.northjersey.com

The similarity to Trump is that the man has no bottom. Nothing's beneath him.

I remember when this was getting pushed. My first thought was how do Republicans not remember ICE detention centers? Or the big stink they made about sanctuary cities? All Abbot, and Desantis had to do was hand over the immigrants to the FEDS. It's like they are all sharing one outraged brain cell.

 

[SamAndreas]

Welp...sheet...looking like Boebert is gonna win. Ugh.

Not yet, hang in there. There will be a recount, and a court case, and there might well be some errors to be found in Mesa county. Mesa county is known for that.

Mesa county is a mess, and has been a mess for hundred and a couple or three years. A hundred years ago they were a KKK stronghold. Nut's don't fall far from a tree.

 

[DaveXA]

Not yet, hang in there. There will be a recount, and a court case, and there might well be some errors to be found in Mesa county. Mesa county is known for that.

Mesa county is a mess, and has been a mess for hundred and a couple or three years. A hundred years ago they were a KKK stronghold. Nut's don't fall far from a tree.

I hope you're right.

 

[wardorican]

AZ is taking forever....

 

[MT15]

Not yet, hang in there. There will be a recount, and a court case, and there might well be some errors to be found in Mesa county. Mesa county is known for that.

Mesa county is a mess, and has been a mess for hundred and a couple or three years. A hundred years ago they were a KKK stronghold. Nut's don't fall far from a tree.

Just saw this:

 

[SamAndreas]

AZ is taking forever....

A through Z is the whole alphabet.

 

[SamAndreas]

I hope you're right.

I'm not "right,"

I'm always optimistic and hopeful.

 

[Bolo]

Regardless of how you feel about candidates and the midterms, its absolutely unacceptable that its taking this long for any state to count their votes. We need true national election reform where standards are much higher in election/tabulation machine upkeeps. Should a machine fail, they need backup machines or really fast methods of getting another machine on site. I know these machines are probably tested in some way prior but its every year some machine ends up failing in some county, it shouldn't be happening this much. Mail in Ballots should be counted either the day before or as soon as the polls open, not after they close and keep the results under lock and key so that it doesn't cause voter suppression because 80% of those ballots went to x-candidate.

I also think Election day should be treated like Christmas, if you're open on that day, you close early, 2pm like many retail places who open that day and way more people need to get that day as a holiday instead of Gov workers. Imagine going to vote before you start the work day and there is a problem with the machine and its gonna take hours to fix? You don't have that time and maybe going back later isn't going to be viable for some.

 

[DaveXA]

Regardless of how you feel about candidates and the midterms, its absolutely unacceptable that its taking this long for any state to count their votes. We need true national election reform where standards are much higher in election/tabulation machine upkeeps. Should a machine fail, they need backup machines or really fast methods of getting another machine on site. I know these machines are probably tested in some way prior but its every year some machine ends up failing in some county, it shouldn't be happening this much. Mail in Ballots should be counted either the day before or as soon as the polls open, not after they close and keep the results under lock and key so that it doesn't cause voter suppression because 80% of those ballots went to x-candidate.

I also think Election day should be treated like Christmas, if you're open on that day, you close early, 2pm like many retail places who open that day and way more people need to get that day as a holiday instead of Gov workers. Imagine going to vote before you start the work day and there is a problem with the machine and its gonna take hours to fix? You don't have that time and maybe going back later isn't going to be viable for some.

A few things. One, this happens every election. People acting like this is some new phenomenon haven't been paying attention. Two, mail in ballots are treated differently for obvious reasons. Signatures have to be verified before ballots are actually counted. When you're talking about processing hundreds of thousands of mail in ballots, counting them all takes time, usually a few to several days depending on staffing and hours worked.

Most states called on election day or the following day haven't counted all their votes either. They're called that early because the lead is greater than the number of remaining votes to be counted. The states with the closest margins are going to be the ones where those mail in or hand delivered ballots matter. It's really not that complicated or unusual. The whining and gnashing of teeth over the time if takes to complete the counting is borne out of ignorance and really promulgated by the election deniers who peddle in half-truths or outright lies.

Time to put the big boy pants on and deal with the fact that when you lose a vote, congratulate the opponent, shake hands and move on. The sour grapes bull shirt from election losers is immature and needs to stop.

Discrepancies and problems with machines and what not are actually quite rare. A handful happens every election because humans run them and occasionally mistakes are made. And 9 times out of 10, they're not intentional. When they are made, they should and usually do go through proper channels to get the mistakes corrected.

 

[Saintman2884]

A few things. One, this happens every election. People acting like this is some new phenomenon haven't been paying attention. Two, mail in ballots are treated differently for obvious reasons. Signatures have to be verified before ballots are actually counted. When you're talking about processing hundreds of thousands of mail in ballots, counting them all takes time, usually a few to several days depending on staffing and hours worked.

Most states called on election day or the following day haven't counted all their votes either. They're called that early because the lead is greater than the number of remaining votes to be counted. The states with the closest margins are going to be the ones where those mail in or hand delivered ballots matter. It's really not that complicated or unusual. The whining and gnashing of teeth over the time if takes to complete the counting is borne out of ignorance and really promulgated by the election deniers who peddle in half-truths or outright lies.

Time to put the big boy pants on and deal with the fact that when you lose a vote, congratulate the opponent, shake hands and move on. The sour grapes bull shirt from election losers is immature and needs to stop.

Discrepancies and problems with machines and what not are actually quite rare. A handful happens every election because humans run them and occasionally mistakes are made. And 9 times out of 10, they're not intentional. When they are made, they should and usually do go through proper channels to get the mistakes corrected.

These problems or issues werent nearly as problematic, or the pace of counting votes werent an issue pre-Covid because not as many people were voting absentee or mail-in ballots to the same extent or scope as they have during the 2020 presidential election or these 2022 midterms. I suspect the number of absentee ballots/mail-ins wont be nearly as big or as large in 2024 due to Covid-19 even more effectively managed or neutralized by then. If states like Arizona, New Mexico, or Nevada feel like they have to deal with the time-consuming, deliberate, painstaking meticulous vote-counting process they couldve decided to hire more poll workers, volunteers, counters, guards, and use those extra volunteers/workers time and labor to work maybe overtime/overnight shifts that an trained, highly competent backup crews could take over their jobs once midnight came along. That way, they keep counting throughout the night and there wouldnt be stopping at midnight and picking up the pace again at 7 O'clock the next morning.

These states or any other states that are expecting close gubernatorial, Senate or House races in midterms or in presidential races, if they indeed hired more poll workers, county by county, district by district, in these states, we wouldnt be waiting nearly a week to find out who'll be the next Governor/Senator from Arz. or Nev. and we probably wouldn't have had to wait until Saturday after the 2020 Presidential elections from the AP who our next president would be.

Im not saying or arguing more equally-trained, competent poll workers, volunteers augmented to keep counting votes or absentee ballots wouldnt still take a few days to determine who won the most votes in these states, but I do believe 2 days is better then waiting 4-5 days. In some of these counties during these midterms and in 2020, pollsters and vote-counters were leaving at 10:30-11 P.M. and not returning full strength until 8 A.M. the next morning.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Can I get a tl;dr of the last two posts?

 

[brandon]

Can I get a tl;dr of the last two posts?

 

[B4YOU]

Democrats' chances of a Senate majority just got brighter

Control of the Senate may be decided before the Georgia runoff election on December 6.

www.newsweek.com

Sounds like AZ may finish Blue. This will keep the Rs home for the GA runoff.

 

[cuddlemonkey]

Democrats' chances of a Senate majority just got brighter

Control of the Senate may be decided before the Georgia runoff election on December 6.

www.newsweek.com

Sounds like AZ may finish Blue. This will keep the Rs home for the GA runoff.

I really hope so. The people who put Herschel up to running oughta be forking ashamed of themselves.

 

[bdb13]

Democrats' chances of a Senate majority just got brighter

Control of the Senate may be decided before the Georgia runoff election on December 6.

www.newsweek.com

Sounds like AZ may finish Blue. This will keep the Rs home for the GA runoff.

Nevada is the one that's most questionable.. if Democrats win that one then yeah Warnock will win more comfortably.

 

[Lapaz]

These problems or issues werent nearly as problematic, or the pace of counting votes werent an issue pre-Covid because not as many people were voting absentee or mail-in ballots to the same extent or scope as they have during the 2020 presidential election or these 2022 midterms. I suspect the number of absentee ballots/mail-ins wont be nearly as big or as large in 2024 due to Covid-19 even more effectively managed or neutralized by then. If states like Arizona, New Mexico, or Nevada feel like they have to deal with the time-consuming, deliberate, painstaking meticulous vote-counting process they couldve decided to hire more poll workers, volunteers, counters, guards, and use those extra volunteers/workers time and labor to work maybe overtime/overnight shifts that an trained, highly competent backup crews could take over their jobs once midnight came along. That way, they keep counting throughout the night and there wouldnt be stopping at midnight and picking up the pace again at 7 O'clock the next morning.

These states or any other states that are expecting close gubernatorial, Senate or House races in midterms or in presidential races, if they indeed hired more poll workers, county by county, district by district, in these states, we wouldnt be waiting nearly a week to find out who'll be the next Governor/Senator from Arz. or Nev. and we probably wouldn't have had to wait until Saturday after the 2020 Presidential elections from the AP who our next president would be.

Im not saying or arguing more equally-trained, competent poll workers, volunteers augmented to keep counting votes or absentee ballots wouldnt still take a few days to determine who won the most votes in these states, but I do believe 2 days is better then waiting 4-5 days. In some of these counties during these midterms and in 2020, pollsters and vote-counters were leaving at 10:30-11 P.M. and not returning full strength until 8 A.M. the next morning.

I’m pretty sure most poll workers are volunteers. With the current threatening climate against poll workers, particularly from MAGA people, it’s a tall order to expect more hours and people. Also, I would worry about mass hiring, because the system has to assure that no corrupt people are hired, and those hired monitored closely.

With that said, we may be impatient to learn the result, but a few days or even a couple of weeks of extra counting is not a problem.

 

[faceman]

Nevada is the one that's most questionable.. if Democrats win that one then yeah Warnock will win more comfortably.

It was mentioned in another thread. Georgia had a large turnout due to the Governors race. Walker didn't
get the same support as Kemp