Midterm projections. (4 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[J-DONK]

Kari Lake is tougher to answer, but if we're honest, we know why Barnes lost by that number.

Barnes was the only senate candidate that the "Crime Wave" ads worked on. Yes, we know why.

 

[J-DONK]

Looks like David Trone (D-MD) is steadily closing the gap and may hold onto his seat.

CNN called this race. So Trone is a lock.

 

[faceman]

I dunno, I used to vote split ticket all the time. I won't vote for a Trumper type Republican, but I might vote for a moderate one.

I've done the same. The first time was 1980. It was the year I was first eligible to vote. I voted for D William Winter
for Governor and R Thad Cochran for senate in Ms.

History will remember Winter as being the best Governor Ms ever had. Cochran was a moderate republican who
worked across the aisle. I remember an interview later in his life. He was asked what the biggest difference was then
and now. He said when I first joined it was common for a NE or CA. Democrat to call a Midwest R and ask for his
opinion on a farm bill. Sadly that's not the case today.

 

[DaveXA]

Why are these #s the same as 24 hours ago?

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Is it that one or two states are Counting paper ballots super slowly?
Arizona? Nevada? Other(s)?

Except they aren't the same.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Why are these #s the same as 24 hours ago?

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*
Is it that one or two states are Counting paper ballots super slowly?
Arizona? Nevada? Other(s)?

Both those states have some kind of whack procedure. Also they might have an extended window on when mail-in ballots can be counter as timely (i.e., postmarked on the day of the election but received X dayt after). That said, they need to reassess their process and perhaps consider counting absentee mail-in ballots a day early and just dump those numbers immediately when the results are first released.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

Except they aren't the same.

Last night Yahoo News had the Rs with 211 House seats and the Senate was tied (according to Yahoo) @ 48 each.
Tonight THOSE numbers are unchanged.
Would you or some other poster take the time to answer which states are slow? ...and except for the GA Senate runoff, when can we at least wrap up the House #s?

 

[DaveXA]

Both those states have some kind of whack procedure. Also they might have an extended window on when mail-in ballots can be counter as timely (i.e., postmarked on the day of the election but received X dayt after). That said, they need to reassess their process and perhaps consider counting absentee mail-in ballots a day early and just dump those numbers immediately when the results are first released.

That I agree with. But the premise was that the numbers hadn't changed in 24 hours and that something was wrong. They're following the rules already in place. The can and probably should look at tweaking the rules so that it doesn't take that long. There's nothing nefarious about it taking a while though.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

That I agree with. But the premise was that the numbers hadn't changed in 24 hours and that something was wrong. They're following the rules already in place. The can and probably should look at tweaking the rules so that it doesn't take that long. There's nothing nefarious about it taking a while though.

Sorry that you thought I was implying that something was wrong.
I was not. I just figured that a couple of states are being super slow in counting paper ballots.
I think that's what I said.
Anyway...
I am just impatient. Sorry.

 

[Saintman2884]

That I agree with. But the premise was that the numbers hadn't changed in 24 hours and that something was wrong. They're following the rules already in place. The can and probably should look at tweaking the rules so that it doesn't take that long. There's nothing nefarious about it taking a while though.

I will say it’s very annoying and more then a bit frustrating even if proper, formal voting procedures are being followed to the rigid, meticulous letter.

One might argue a bit tedious, too.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Yeah. Nothing nefarious is going on but its bad optics when it takes a couple of states forever to count where other states can get the job done usually in 24 hours.

 

[DaveXA]

Last night Yahoo News had the Rs with 211 House seats and the Senate was tied (according to Yahoo) @ 48 each.
Tonight THOSE numbers are unchanged.
Would you or some other poster take the time to answer which states are slow? ...and except for the GA Senate runoff, when can we at least wrap up the House #s?

The total called races are the same, but the reported vote tallies have been changing as new batches are reported in each state/precient. I don't know which states are "slow", but the reason states aren't called yet is usually because it appears that the lead is larger than number of votes remaining or looks insurmountable.

If all states were within the same margins as say the Nevada Senate race, they would all still be counting as well. Technically, most states are still actually counting votes. Look at the estimated reported and you'll see few states at 100%. Most are in the 90%+ range, but some are still in the 70 and 80% reported range.

Every state has their own election laws and there are varied counting processes for mail-in ballots, early voting, late voting, in person drop-off and in person voting. The validating process varies as well. So I don't know all of the rules for every state, but there are good reasons why some aren't decided yet.

 

[DaveXA]

Yeah. Nothing nefarious is going on but its bad optics when it takes a couple of states forever to count where other states can get the job done usually in 24 hours.

Just to be sure, not a single state had all of their votes counted in the first 24 hours. I can't recall one that had 100% reported the morning after the election. It just doesn't happen that fast because while the majority of in person votes cast are electronic and quickly counted, the same can't be said for absentee and mail-in votes. And that's not counting any technical issues that might pop up.

States get called based on exit polling done by the news outlets reporting and i believe by reported voting numbers if it's too close to call. I don't know if that's the same across all news outlets, but I believe that's close to what happens for most of them.

 

[bdb13]

Sorry that you thought I was implying that something was wrong.
I was not. I just figured that a couple of states are being super slow in counting paper ballots.
I think that's what I said.
Anyway...
I am just impatient. Sorry.

I believe Arizona is accepting mail in ballots until Saturday that were postmarked by election day.. I don't even really have a problem with that but it does make these things drag on out.

 

[bdb13]

Just to be sure, not a single state had all of their votes counted in the first 24 hours. I can't recall one that had 100% reported the morning after the election. It just doesn't happen that fast because while the majority of in person votes cast are electronic and quickly counted, the same can't be said for absentee and mail-in votes. And that's not counting any technical issues that might pop up.

You also have to factor in that these are tight races and if the votes weren't so close it'd be more clear more quickly who's won.

Edit: lol I see you edited and DID factor it in.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

I believe Arizona is accepting mail in ballots until Saturday that were postmarked by election day.. I don't even really have a problem with that but it does make these things drag on out.

Back in January and February I used to go back and forth with a certain poster about the excitement I USED TO FEEL about Election Day. I pointed out that the relatively recent increase in the percentage of mail in ballots has ruined that feeling. Tonight's posts back me up.
This.....is ...... so tedious and frustrating.
I'll rehash again tonight what I said last winter.
Mail In voting should be for those who need it.
SOME examples of that are:
People who are physically challenged
People who are medically challenged
People who will be out of town on election day
Our military heroes serving away from home
(as I said ....these are SOME examples)
..................YET if all of us who are not in those categories voted IN PERSON...ON ELECTION DAY...then I and many others in this nation would not feel so frustrated tonight.

 

[MT15]

Back in January and February I used to go back and forth with a certain poster about the excitement I USED TO FEEL about Election Day. I pointed out that the relatively recent increase in the percentage of mail in ballots has ruined that feeling. Tonight's posts back me up.
This.....is ...... so tedious and frustrating.
I'll rehash again tonight what I said last winter.
Mail In voting should be for those who need it.
SOME examples of that are:
People who are physically challenged
People who are medically challenged
People who will be out of town on election day
Our military heroes serving away from home
(as I said ....these are SOME examples)
..................YET if all of us who are not in those categories voted IN PERSON...ON ELECTION DAY...then I and many others in this nation would not feel so frustrated tonight.

In my town the lines at polling places were ridiculous. Had to be more than an hour wait, the lines were outside the building and snaked around the parking lot - all day long. It was dark the last time we went by and the line was the same.

Nobody should have to put up with that to vote. People should be able to vote whichever way is most convenient for them. Period. Your impatience is no reason to inconvenience everyone else.

 

[MT15]

Woo Hoo, go Nevada!!!!!

 

[bdb13]

Woo Hoo, go Nevada!!!!!

Really need to make Georgia be the cherry on top instead of the whole enchilada.