Midterm projections. (1 Viewer)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[MT15]

This is a really good follow who updates on all the races nationwide:

 

[MT15]

Some real 3D chess the Democrats in Nevada are playing here by strategically sacrificing the governor's race so that they can steal the votes for the Senate seat with less suspicion. Well played.

/

And, right on cue:

 

[bdb13]

And, right on cue:

Can't fool that guy.

 

[faceman]

Yes I don't fit in here. No one agrees with me. All you healthy people with no transportation issues want to mail in your votes and wait until Thsnksgiving! I was perfectly happy staying off this forum for 3 months. You guys probably didn't miss me. So I will make you all happy and disappear again.

Please stay. Many may noy agree with,but your opinion is respected.

I will be voting mail in the next election. I was recently diagnosed with neuropathy. It causes a condition known as drop foot.
I cannot bend my left foot and toes above my ankle. If I'm not very careful that foot will drag and I'll fall face down on the
pavement. There are many reasons voters cannot be at the booth. Those include our military stationed overseas. A majority
of those vote Republican. I just don't understand why so many conservatives are opposed to it.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Arizona has been called for Mark Kelly by CNN.

 

[DaveXA]

Arizona has been called for Mark Kelly by CNN.

Yeah, not too surprised.

 

[DaveXA]

Yes I don't fit in here. No one agrees with me. All you healthy people with no transportation issues want to mail in your votes and wait until Thsnksgiving! I was perfectly happy staying off this forum for 3 months. You guys probably didn't miss me. So I will make you all happy and disappear again.

To be sure, not one person here is trying to run you off. There's really no reason to leave. And no, no one gets any satisfaction out of making a reasonable poster leave. We might not agree, but that doesn't mean you need to bail.

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

[SamAndreas]

Yes I don't fit in here. No one agrees with me. All you healthy people with no transportation issues want to mail in your votes and wait until Thsnksgiving! I was perfectly happy staying off this forum for 3 months. You guys probably didn't miss me. So I will make you all happy and disappear again.

Oh deer:

You didn't disappear the first time for three months.

Nor do t think you will actually disappear this time for three months, not that I or anyone else here is trying to cause you to disappear.

I don't mail in my ballot. I don't trust that little dink we have for a postmaster in our little lonely post office. He actually stamps outside to raise the flag at full military attention like as if he's still in the Marine Corp.

And he's too nosy about peoples private business. NO! I will not mail my ballot. I take it to the county elections office and walk in to their office and deposit in there right in their office where they can see me drop it into the master ballot box. I do it one or two weeks before the election. Just making sure it's on time.

Then they e-mail me a day later and say they've processed it, it was OK, and that it will be counted at the counting time. I trust them to handle my ballot, but not my sort of strange little post office guy.

So I actually drive further than I would have to drive to vote at the local fire station where no one goes to vote anymore.

I went there to the fire station six years ago and it was like they just about fell over when I walked in. They said I was the only person who had walked in in about an hour.

It was like they were Maytag washing machine repairmen. Had cobwebs growing on themselves. Old lonely election folks. Someday they will stop having them there on election day. States make changes most slowly. I suppose that's good.

 

[DaveXA]

 

[Saintman2884]

In many of those states, whether it was Rep. or Democrat, in terms of the governors races in Georgia, Texas, Nevada, it had to do largely with quality, integrity, and the capabilities of the overall strengths of the candidates themselves. Stacey Abrams might be a good organizer or leader of the Georgia DNC, but she's not the most electable candidate and can't point to what she's achieved or exagerrated accompishments Kemp can say he's done since 2018. She had her best chance at winning political office and she performed far better then than she did this past week. Good organizers, good campaign advisers don't always translate to being solid candidates who can convince voters to choose them based on their own merits or arguments.

Beto would likely be enjoying winning his second term as Senator if he was running in bluer states like Illinois, New York or even New Mexico. He's got more potential and I could envision him being elected more so than Abrams but like I said in a previous post, his political vision, ideals and image of Texas is maybe 10-15, 20 years away from being close to happening. It might be smarter and more productive if he decided to run for Congress again. He'd have more longer, consistent success if he went that route then being perceived as a "nationwide celebrity" candidate who fights hard, most times runs close, highly competitive races but loses every time by 2.3% points.

Beto and Abrams are very good, skilled and adept at raising publicity, occasionally raising controversy, being quotable lightning rods at calling out Ga. or Texas Republicans when they fork up but until then, thats all they are: well-known loud voices in the crowd who can't win elections on their own and unfortunately and frankly until they win themselves, the national DNC is going to perceive them as losers, unfairly or not, especially Beto.

 

[faceman]

More good news. It's official now. D Adrian Fontes was won the Az Secretary of state seat. His opponent Mark Finchen is
a far right nutjob and election denier. More bad news for Trump loyalists.

Democrat Adrian Fontes leads Mark Finchem in Arizona Secretary of State race

Democrat Adrian Fontes, who said his goal is to bring trust back to voters, has an early lead over Republican Mark Finchem, who denies the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election.

cronkitenews.azpbs.org

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

[Saintman2884]

To be sure, not one person here is trying to run you off. There's really no reason to leave. And no, no one gets any satisfaction out of making a reasonable poster leave. We might not agree, but that doesn't mean you need to bail.

Dave, there have been 1-2 people who have been more then a little bit rude and disrespectful for reasons other then just stating my opinions or views on threads on certain socio-political issues. In fact, it got kind of borderline nasty and cutting for really no reason at all. People here on MAP know I'm no MAGA conservative.

It would be one thing if I was writing or composing idiotic, stupid posts but if anything it came because someone's ego got hurt because I kept challenging them on issues that were more opinion-based then facts and they lashed out because I went against the grain.

 

[Saintman2884]

More good news. It's official now. D Adrian Fontes was won the Az Secretary of state seat. His opponent Mark Finchen is
a far right nutjob and election denier. More bad news for Trump loyalists.

Democrat Adrian Fontes leads Mark Finchem in Arizona Secretary of State race

Democrat Adrian Fontes, who said his goal is to bring trust back to voters, has an early lead over Republican Mark Finchem, who denies the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election.

cronkitenews.azpbs.org

I think the only major Trump-endorsed 2022 GOP candidate that won in this year's midterms was Joe Lombardo of Nevada who won a close, contested race for Governor and was called a little over 2 hours ago.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

I think the only thing Lombardo will tinker with is universal mail-in voting in Nevada (although that's more in the hands of the legislature). It's not too surprising he won as he is very popular as Sheriff of Clark County/Head of the Las Vegas PD. This was probably decided more on local issues.

 

[J-DONK]

The copium about Abortion is hilarious. Democrats are going to run ads highlighting insane anecdotes from the south across the entire midwest.

"Met Kelli Anne 11 year olds, and mother of a 6 month old from Louisiana. She wasn't given a choice, and if you vote for Republicans this could happen in our state, and to your child."

That ad is getting aired every election cycle. It will scare living sh@# out of moderates.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

I think the only thing Lombardo will tinker with is universal mail-in voting in Nevada. It's not too surprising he won as he is very popular as Sheriff of Clark County/Head of the Las Vegas PD. This was probably decided more on local issues.

What's the make-up of the legislature in Nevada?