Midterm projections. (1 Viewer)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[J-DONK]

Reminds me of this video that goes into how many names John is the root.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

What's the make-up of the legislature in Nevada?

Apparently the Democrats hold majorities in both chambers which surprises me. But that might have changed with the recent election.

Real time edit: Seems like Democrats will retain control:

Democrats expected to retain control of Legislature, remain short of supermajority – The Nevada Independent

As the results for the midterm election pour in, Democrats appear to be maintaining control of the Legislature, but they will likely fall short of hoped-for supermajorities in either house.

thenevadaindependent.com

So basically there is nothing Lombardo can do to change the voting laws.

 

[SamAndreas]

I think control of the House is still very much in question:

So does Joe Biden.

I'm pretty sure it won't be worse than them having two more votes than we do, or vise versa.

My vise is this big and bolted to a massive steel "bang on it with a big hammer all you want" kind of table.

That vise in the photo is also missing a needed part.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Ultimately I think the GOP gets control of the House by a few seats. Mostly due in part to Republican inroads in traditionally Democratic districts in New York. That said, the Republicans elected in those districts know they have to be fairly moderate if they want to have any chance at reelection in 2024. So I wouldn't expect any successful votes to impeach Biden on nonsensical charges.

 

[Saintman2884]

The copium about Abortion is hilarious. Democrats are going to run ads highlighting insane anecdotes from the south across the entire midwest.

"Met Kelli Anne 11 year olds, and mother of a 6 month old from Louisiana. She wasn't given a choice, and if you vote for Republicans this could happen in our state, and to your child."

That ad is getting aired every election cycle. It will scare living sh@# out of moderates.

Well, she wasnt wrong about one of the main major factors likely costing Reps a larger, convincing House majority was the fact that the Dobbs decision in overturning Roe v. Wade and sending abortion rights back to the state legislatures and the ensuing backlash even among moderates, independent voters, and some conservative women as in blood-red states. The other primary major issue was some of the awful, atrocious midterm candidates in battleground states like Mastriano, Oz to a certain extent, Walker, Kari Lake, Blake Masters who appealed to the base fringe of the Republican party-the extreme MAGA hardcore diehards.

I don't see the controversy surrounding the Dobbs decision going away or lessening in intensity, fierce nature of it being a polarizing social issue receding but as more states actually legislate abortion/reproductive rights in more states and even in red states rejecting proposals to legally forbid it like Kentucky and Kansas, Nebraska, you might see some GOP strategists, politicians discuss it less, or not mention it or try and downplay its significance as more of a "legal matter", whatever it takes to turn down some of the furor surrounding Dobbs decision.

I could foresee scenario where eventually the temperature might get turned down to focus on other issues, whatever they may be in 2024.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Speaking of which it's amazing to me how Kentucky and Kansas can elect Democratic governors but then send Republicans to the Senate by huge margins (60/40).

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

You don't really believe that if the GOP do regain a slim House majority, Kevin McCarthy stands as having a halfway decent realistic chance of being voted Speaker of the House considering he would to compromise and likely placate the far-right "Freedom Caucus" wishes, demands to the point of absurdity or worser?

I think McCarthy probably gets ousted either way. If he were as skillful as Mitch McConnell was then he wouldn't have had to fly down to Mar-a-lago and grovel before Trump. For all intents and purposes, the 2022 midterm was a loss for the GOP. Gaining minimal control of the House does nothing (except the ability to block bills that probably would have been blocked by filibuster in the Senate, anyway). Especially when you'll never carry enough party votes to propose anything extreme.

 

[Saintman2884]

Speaking of which it's amazing to me how Kentucky and Kansas can elect Democratic governors but then send Republicans to the Senate by huge margins (60/40).

Those Dems tend to be a lot more bipartisan in dealing with Republican supermajorities in the state legislatures, more socially conservative or moderate on touchy social issues and also, their forced by circumstances to deal and work at getting prevalent state-centric issues discussed and worked on, so you have to work together at a closer, perhaps more intimate level than lets say members of Congress do or Senators from opposing parties. I think Kentucky's governor has done an excellent job and compared to the Washington madhouse, insane asylum, has much better working political relationships that end up being far more beneficial, and productive.

 

[DaveXA]

Dave, there have been 1-2 people who have been more then a little bit rude and disrespectful for reasons other then just stating my opinions or views on threads on certain socio-political issues. In fact, it got kind of borderline nasty and cutting for really no reason at all. People here on MAP know I'm no MAGA conservative.

It would be one thing if I was writing or composing idiotic, stupid posts but if anything it came because someone's ego got hurt because I kept challenging them on issues that were more opinion-based then facts and they lashed out because I went against the grain.

I don't think anyone has been rude, at least in this discussion. Maybe another thread, idk.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Nevada is... sort of... on its way to adopting ranked-choice voting.



Not sure why state law requires it to be voted on twice, though.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Speaking of which it's amazing to me how Kentucky and Kansas can elect Democratic governors but then send Republicans to the Senate by huge margins (60/40).

Louisiana did it twice.

On another note, I think Laxalt is done. With the way these votes are coming in now in Nevada, I can't see him holding off Cortez Masto.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Louisiana did it twice.

On another note, I think Laxalt is done. With the way these votes are coming in now in Nevada, I can't see him holding off Cortez Masto.

Would be interesting if JBE ever ran for the Senate.

 

[J-DONK]

Well, she wasnt wrong about one of the main major factors likely costing Reps a larger, convincing House majority was the fact that the Dobbs decision in overturning Roe v. Wade and sending abortion rights back to the state legislatures and the ensuing backlash even among moderates, independent voters, and some conservative women as in blood-red states. The other primary major issue was some of the awful, atrocious midterm candidates in battleground states like Mastriano, Oz to a certain extent, Walker, Kari Lake, Blake Masters who appealed to the base fringe of the Republican party-the extreme MAGA hardcore diehards.

I don't see the controversy surrounding the Dobbs decision going away or lessening in intensity, fierce nature of it being a polarizing social issue receding but as more states actually legislate abortion/reproductive rights in more states and even in red states rejecting proposals to legally forbid it like Kentucky and Kansas, Nebraska, you might see some GOP strategists, politicians discuss it less, or not mention it or try and downplay its significance as more of a "legal matter", whatever it takes to turn down some of the furor surrounding Dobbs decision.

I could foresee scenario where eventually the temperature might get turned down to focus on other issues, whatever they may be in 2024.

We shall see but this is an easy ball to not fumble. You can copy Republicans to keep this in the limelight forever. Republicans turn stupid stuff into wedge issues like migrant caravans, transgender bathrooms, or hormones' blockers. I say those are dumb because it's an insanely tiny portion of the population. They accomplish making these wedge issues by using emotion provoking anecdotes.

The question becomes can a pro-choice Republican win a primary?

 

[Optimus Prime]

Just hours after Arizona Republican Party Senate nominee Blake Masters was declared the loser in his bid to unseat Sen. Mark Kelly (D), Donald Trump raged on his Truth Social media platform that there needs to be a do-over election.

Kelly's win, with the U.S. Senate seats in Nevada and Georgia still to be decided, appears to lock up Democratic control of the chamber and the Masters' loss is another blow to the former president who threw his whole-hearted support behind the GOP nominee.

With that in mind -- on the evening before his youngest daughter's wedding at Mar-a-Lago -- Trump accused election officials in Arizona of being idiots and of being "corrupt" despite the fact that many of them are Republicans.

"Idiot, and possibly corrupt, officials have lost control of the tainted Election in Arizona," he wrote. "MACHINES BROKEN IN REPUBLICAN AREAS. A NEW ELECTION MUST BE CALLED FOR IMMEDIATELY!"..........

'A new election must be called for immediately!': Trump flips out after another Senate win for Dems

 

[cuddlemonkey]

Y'all, this election-denying bullshirt is starting to wear on me. It's a clear effort to undermine democracy and those that perpetuate the lies are gosh darned traitors to the country.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

Why not?

Do you realize that almost all of the states have votes outstanding? I can't find one that is reporting 100% at this point. Which actually is the norm. So...what's the problem? Maybe it's bad memory?

To be sure, not one person here is trying to run you off. There's really no reason to leave. And no, no one gets any satisfaction out of making a reasonable poster leave. We might not agree, but that doesn't mean you need to bail.

It's not fun for me.
There are so many things to do in life and choosing to post on a forum for me is only worth it if it brings me enjoyment.
One poster explained his medical condition to me ( no explanation was needed though) and said that was the reason he votes by mail. Well of course. Sorry for your condition and you certainly don't owe me any explanation.
He went on to say that he doesn't understand why conservatives are against mail in voting.
I'm NOT against mail in voting per say.
...and my opinion that I stated about mail in voting is NOT because I'm a conservative....but because I'm an impatient person.
To that one person who gave his reason:
I said that my preference would be that mail in voting would remain and be used by:
People with a Physical Challenge
People with a Medical Challenge
People with a Transportation Challenge
People who would be out of town on Election Day
People who serve in the Armed Forces
....I went on to say that these are not all the valid reasons...these are sample reasons.
*
I think it is boring and lame to suggest that the entire nation vote by mail.
Imagine the cost of hiring enough people to open and tabulate all those envelopes.
I think I left this forum sometime last August and I returned in early November. That WAS approx 3 months.
There were a couple of exceptions where I did not exchange regular posts....but simply popped in to share a link for others to enjoy....tried to show some kindness.....I dropped the link and was gone. So if that means my 3 month statement is in error...so be it.
Wrapping it up now why it is unimportant for me to stay..... even if I convinced all of you of something when we disagreed.....what difference would that make? We on this forum are 000000000000.1% of the population of America.
None of this matters.
If it isn't fun for me....then why bother?
Bye again.

 

[faceman]

Y'all, this election-denying bullshirt is starting to wear on me. It's a clear effort to undermine democracy and those that perpetuate the lies are gosh darned traitors to the country.

Another article saying how the republicans blew it and a warning to democrats not to get too confident.
The article also says democrats haven't been this vulnerable going into the midterms since Lyndon B Johnsons
term. Overturning Roe vs. Wade was the beginning.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/10/republicans-midterm-elections-trump/

 

[cuddlemonkey]

It's not fun for me.
There are so many things to do in life and choosing to post on a forum for me is only worth it if it brings me enjoyment.
One poster explained his medical condition to me ( no explanation was needed though) and said that was the reason he votes by mail. Well of course. Sorry for your condition and you certainly don't owe me any explanation.
He went on to say that he doesn't understand why conservatives are against mail in voting.
I'm NOT against mail in voting per say.
...and my opinion that I stated about mail in voting is NOT because I'm a conservative....but because I'm an impatient person.
To that one person who gave his reason:
I said that my preference would be that mail in voting would remain and be used by:
People with a Physical Challenge
People with a Medical Challenge
People with a Transportation Challenge
People who would be out of town on Election Day
People who serve in the Armed Forces
....I went on to say that these are not all the valid reasons...these are sample reasons.
*
I think it is boring and lame to suggest that the entire nation vote by mail.
Imagine the cost of hiring enough people to open and tabulate all those envelopes.
I think I left this forum sometime last August and I returned in early November. That WAS approx 3 months.
There were a couple of exceptions where I did not exchange regular posts....but simply popped in to share a link for others to enjoy....tried to show some kindness.....I dropped the link and was gone. So if that means my 3 month statement is in error...so be it.
Wrapping it up now why it is unimportant for me to stay..... even if I convinced all of you of something when we disagreed.....what difference would that make? We on this forum are 000000000000.1% of the population of America.
None of this matters.
If it isn't fun for me....then why bother?
Bye again.

Na na na na... na na na na... hey hey hey...