Midterm projections. (1 Viewer)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[DaveXA]

Here is a practical, immediate reason for Dems to turn out in GA:

Only if the Manchin Democrats cooperate.

 

[bdb13]

Hahahahahahahahahaaaaaa

 

[bdb13]

Only if the Manchin Democrats cooperate.

Pretty sure Manchin has thus far been good with helping Biden get judges in.

 

[MT15]

Only if the Manchin Democrats cooperate.

This applies only to getting judicial nominees out of committee. If the Senate is tied, the committees are evenly divided. If the Senate is not tied, there will be more Dems than Rs on each committee. At least this is my understanding anyway.

 

[MT15]

House is not out of reach:

 

[Maxp]

It's hard to know what the count is presently.

 

[DaveXA]

House is not out of reach:

Possibly, but as it sits currently, Republicans lead in 10 and Democrats lead in 10. The Democrats would have to maintain leads in all 10, plus pick off at least 4 others where they're trailing. It's a long shot at best.

 

[DaveXA]

This applies only to getting judicial nominees out of committee. If the Senate is tied, the committees are evenly divided. If the Senate is not tied, there will be more Dems than Rs on each committee. At least this is my understanding anyway.

You may be right. I do think they set the agenda regardless, I'm not sure whether that affects how the committees are divided.

 

[MT15]

This guy has been very accurate.



And what Nate Cohn is acknowledging up above is that the late votes in the west that are still being counted are breaking more toward Democrats than in 2020, more like 2018.

 

[DaveXA]

This guy has been very accurate.



And what Nate Cohn is acknowledging up above is that the late votes in the west that are still being counted are breaking more toward Democrats than in 2020, more like 2018.

Yep, I mean, I hope it happens. We'll see. I really want the House to retain a Democrat majority so that the Jan 6th committee can continue into the '23 calendar year if necessary.

Better yet, would be an absolute egg on the face of that idiot McCarthy thinking he's gonna be the Speaker. Please ! Lol.

 

[bdb13]

Yep, I mean, I hope it happens. We'll see. I really want the House to retain a Democrat majority so that the Jan 6th committee can continue into the '23 calendar year if necessary.

Better yet, would be an absolute egg on the face of that idiot McCarthy thinking he's gonna be the Speaker. Please ! Lol.

And those cowards will still rally around Trump even though their association with him is directly attributable to this result.

 

[DaveXA]

And those cowards will still rally around Trump even though their association with him is directly attributable to this result.

I'm just relieved the Republicans aren't being rewarded for their idiotic devotion to Trumpism.

 

[MT15]

Found this from Wasserman:

 

[DaveXA]

Found this from Wasserman:

Geez. I guess the upshot is all 5 are in those late ballot trending Democrat areas.

 

[MT15]

Found this from Wasserman:

What he doesn’t mention is Dems could also flip one of the likely R seats as well.

 

[DaveXA]

What he doesn’t mention is Dems could also flip one of the likely R seats as well.

Which one is that?

 

[Taurus]

Nate Silver gave her a 2% chance.
My district is usually a glowing ruby, but we detest bootlickers.
I'm proud we elected MGP, (barring the inevitable recounts and lawsuits) but like Georgia, it shouldn't have been this close.

 

[MT15]