Midterm projections. (6 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

To be fair Kristol is a moderate R who supported John Mcain for POTUS. He's also anti Trump and realizes the damage he's
done.

I wouldn't say he's moderate (unless compared to a Trumper). He's a normal conference in the lines of George Will who realizes how stupid his party has been since 2016.

 

[faceman]

I wouldn't say he's moderate (unless compared to a Trumper). He's a normal conference in the lines of George Will who realizes how stupid his party has been since 2016.

I'll repeat what I read earlier from another poster. I'm not worried about normal republicans. Most are old school right
wingers and we can survive those. It's Trump and his minions I'm worried about. I really don't care what party the POTUS
belongs too. Our constitution is a beautiful document and allows us to move forward. I just want some sanity in congress. The
Trump types pissed on it and want a king. They are dangerous and need to go

 

[J-DONK]

I'll repeat what I read earlier from another poster. I'm not worried about normal republicans. Most are old school right
wingers and we can survive those. It's Trump and his minions I'm worried about. I really don't care what party the POTUS
belongs too. Our constitution is a beautiful document and allows us to move forward. I just want some sanity in congress. The
Trump types pissed on it and want a king. They are dangerous and need to go

The MAGA's are Republicans who became radicalized via social media into authoritarians. The root of the issue is social media algorithms. The primary driver is probably facebook. I've always assumed this is why people like Shapiro, Candance, and Crowder are given an elevated status in the party. These people have general equivalents on the left, but they have no where near the same level of access to major party leaders.

Democrats consume different sources of media, and it's leads to fragmented views. Older Democrats get a lot of news from TV, print media(online), or facebook. Younger Democrats are going to get news from youtube, or social media platforms like reddit. This leads to a diversification of views within the party itself. It's why on a site like MAD, which is primarily Democrats. There is still a lot of debate. It's insanely harder to get a general consensus of thought, and policy from this group.

 

[zztop]

I thought this was a pretty good article. #3 was the most surprising to me, because those votes tend to go the other way. But I guess in this case for them, it was a lesser of two evils sort of thing

Trumpism Is Toxic

And three other lessons of the midterm elections

www.theatlantic.com

1. Democratic turnout is going to boom in the post-Dobbs era.
2. Bad candidates are an incurable (and fast-spreading) cancer.
3. Voters prefer “out of touch” to “out of their mind.”
4. Trumpism is toxic to the middle of the electorate.

 

[MT15]

One closer……

 

[faceman]

I thought this was a pretty good article. #3 was the most surprising to me, because those votes tend to go the other way. But I guess in this case for them, it was a lesser of two evils sort of thing

Trumpism Is Toxic

And three other lessons of the midterm elections

www.theatlantic.com

1. Democratic turnout is going to boom in the post-Dobbs era.
2. Bad candidates are an incurable (and fast-spreading) cancer.
3. Voters prefer “out of touch” to “out of their mind.”
4. Trumpism is toxic to the middle of the electorate.

Thanks,this is a great article. It's a long read,but well worth it. In short overturning Roe Vs Wade was the biggest help for the Dems.
My favorite line

Voters prefer “out of touch” to “out of their mind.”​

 

[SFIDC3]

I thought this was a pretty good article. #3 was the most surprising to me, because those votes tend to go the other way. But I guess in this case for them, it was a lesser of two evils sort of thing

Trumpism Is Toxic

And three other lessons of the midterm elections

www.theatlantic.com

1. Democratic turnout is going to boom in the post-Dobbs era.
2. Bad candidates are an incurable (and fast-spreading) cancer.
3. Voters prefer “out of touch” to “out of their mind.”
4. Trumpism is toxic to the middle of the electorate.

Thanks, this is a great article…..spot frickin on…..

 

[Taurus]

I'll always get behind this. Gen Z trying to take credit for everything like us Xers don't exist.

It's my district. It's not a 'young, hip' place.

 

[MT15]

Just a reminder how really bad the polls were:

 

[Taurus]

Just a reminder how really bad the polls were:

Polling methods need to change. They're essentially useless and getting moreso.

 

[MT15]

As much as the courts have helped stave off the bogus “election fraud” narrative, they have failed us im protecting against gerrymandering:

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

In slight fairness... I will say, at least with regard to the challenge to the Louisiana seat, that wasn't handed down until like... I want to say a couple of days before the qualifying period (for filing your candidacy with the La. Sec. of State) ended. It would have been a bit chaotic to implement new Congressional districts at that point in time.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Also a word on polls. Yeah, a lot were way off. I still like 538 and Nate Silver is they merely aggregate the polls and create models using corrective variables. As far as 538, it's important to remember the model still gave the Democrats a 41% chance of keeping the Senate -- which isn't an inconsequential number.

 

[MT15]

IIRC Nate Silver touts his ability to rate the pollsters, doesn’t he? He weighs them by how well they poll, so I’m not willing to give him any leeway here. Other people were able to read the polls in the run up to the election and say they were fatally flawed, why didn’t 538 see it? I saw analysis after analysis saying the polls favoring Rs were not good polls before the election. But the polling industry and the media didn’t pay any attention, and ran with the narrative that was being pushed.

Sorry, after 2016 and 2020 where there were some pretty big misses and now the special vote in NE for abortion rights and the misses in the midterm, I don’t think these guys are on the up and up. They are either cooking the books more than they ever have before or they don’t know what they’re doing.

 

[J-DONK]

IIRC Nate Silver touts his ability to rate the pollsters, doesn’t he? He weighs them by how well they poll, so I’m not willing to give him any leeway here. Other people were able to read the polls in the run up to the election and say they were fatally flawed, why didn’t 538 see it? I saw analysis after analysis saying the polls favoring Rs were not good polls before the election. But the polling industry and the media didn’t pay any attention, and ran with the narrative that was being pushed.

Sorry, after 2016 and 2020 where there were some pretty big misses and now the special vote in NE for abortion rights and the misses in the midterm, I don’t think these guys are on the up and up. They are either cooking the books more than they ever have before or they don’t know what they’re doing.

If they release the raw data, and include their methodology. You should be able to see how it went wrong. I assume young people were under sampled since they came out in historic numbers.

I do agree about Nate Silver though. He has missed on so many elections. It's clear his process is flawed, and shouldn't be taken seriously.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Some Americans may have voted for Democrats to hold on to at least one chamber of Congress simply because of the growing ugliness of the conservative politcial movement, Speaker Nancy Pelosi suggested on Sunday.

Reacting to a historic performance by her party in Tuesday’s elections, which saw Democrats hold the Senate and position themselves for an expanded majority, Ms Pelosi noted that the Republican Party’s reaction to the attack on her husband had been met with a muted response from GOP leaders while their own members and supporters, like Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin and Donald Trump Jr, engaged in outright mockery…..

Pelosi says ‘disgusting’ GOP reaction to husband’s attack may have swayed voters

Muted GOP response came as far-right openly mocked violent attack against Paul Pelosi

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Optimus Prime]

Kari Lake supporters have called for military intervention amid fears that she may be losing.

Meanwhile, an Arizona police lab has found nothing in an envelope that the Kari Lake campaign claimed contained a “suspicious” powder.


The letter was sent to the campaign headquarters of Ms Lake in Phoenix, Arizona on 5 November.

A worker said it held a “suspicious white powder”.

Phoenix Police Department communications director Donna Rossi told The Arizona Republic that “the state lab tested the items turned over to them” and that they “determined there was no substance inside”……

Lake supporters call for military intervention amid fears she may be losing - live

A total of 2,280,982 votes have been reported so far

www.independent.co.uk

 

[MT15]

If they release the raw data, and include their methodology. You should be able to see how it went wrong. I assume young people were under sampled since they came out in historic numbers.

I do agree about Nate Silver though. He has missed on so many elections. It's clear his process is flawed, and shouldn't be taken seriously.

Yes, I saw several people online who looked into the polls claiming that Rs would win in-depth. They said it was easy to see how flawed they were. And basically nobody paid any attention. Media and mainstream guys like Silver ran with them as if they were fine. I don’t know that much, but these independent data people were obviously right.