Midterm projections. (1 Viewer)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[Bolo]

The hilarity that is the Republican party. They've lost Gen Z because they don't care about young voters at all. They claim they do but consider this: When younger people say they want better wages, affordable housing, complains about college being too expensive or student loans, better healthcare, the Republican party doesn't listen. When the great resignation was in the news and making the rounds, many conservative talking heads went the stereotypical boomer route and called them lazy people who don't want to work hard. When the conversation about wages come up, despite companies making record profits and CEO's getting millions of dollars in bonuses, they tell younger workers to shut up and just accept crappy low wages and to pull themselves up by their boot straps.

When Inflation became an everyday talking point in the Republican party/conservative media circles, all of a sudden they went with wages not keeping up with Bidens inflation. Meanwhile, 15 months ago, they were telling people that 15$ an hour was ridiculous and called those who seeked it, unskilled labor. Meanwhile, its always the out of touch older folks that gets upset that some McDonalds closed at 6 because they don't have the staff to stay open longer and instead of saying maybe they should be paid more, they go right to the "those people are just lazy" route. They're the first people to throw their hands in the air and complain to managers over lack of staffing when every place that doesn't pay well is now short staffed because places that pay well magically don't have this problem.

The great irony is, it was Gen Z that came through for many of these mid-term races for the Democrats. Whilst the Democrats have done very little to address these same issues, they don't get belittled by the Democrats like they do when it comes to Republicans. Now the Republicans are throwing their hands in the air and saying "WHAT HAPPENED, THERE WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A RED WAVE!"

Ignoring the issues an entire generation cares about the most has consequences.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Interesting article
=============
Democrats just had one of the strongest showings in the past century for a president’s party in midterm elections, while many of the candidates endorsed by former president Donald Trump lost.

Those results are not only shaking up domestic politics — they will also reverberate abroad.

Dictators and right-wing populists who were hoping that Trump would return to power are sure to be disappointed, while the United States’ democratic allies can breathe a little easier.


Both Kyiv and Moscow were watching the election results closely.

Ukrainians were apprehensive that if Republicans won power, U.S. aid to their country would be cut off. That’s a legitimate concern, given that Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who may be the next House speaker, said that Ukraine would no longer have a “blank check.”


In fact, given the Russian army’s dismal combat performance, a U.S. aid cutoff is Vladimir Putin’s best bet to win the war. That helps to explain why the Kremlin once again activated its trolls and bots before Election Day to help the MAGA movement.

Russian propagandists even said that Putin avoided announcing the Russian withdrawal from Kherson until the day after the vote so as not to give a lift to Biden and Democrats.

Democrats still did well — and Russia did badly.

Another country that might have benefited from a Democratic defeat is China. That’s not because Republicans are pro-China; while there is a lot of sympathy for Putin in MAGA world, there is none for Xi Jinping.

But as the United States’ foremost geostrategic challenger, China benefits from a weak president and a divided America…….

The election was also being closely watched in the Middle East, where many of the United States’ illiberal allies have been pining for the days when Trump gave them a pass on their atrocious human rights records.

I recently talked with a reporter from an Arab country who told me that her government is locking up more journalists while ignoring protests from the State Department because its rulers are counting on Trump to come back in two years.

That seems less likely now, which adds to the pressure on Arab states to listen more carefully to what the Biden administration is telling them…….

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/14/midterms-empower-biden-foreign-policy/

 

[Optimus Prime]

Donald Trump sought to escape blame for the poor showing of his party in the 2022 midterms on Sunday and escalated his racist attacks against the wife of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, his former secretary of Transporation, Elaine Chao.

The latest attack came in the form of another “truth” from Mr Trump’s Truth Social platform, and followed a dismal performance by the Republican Party in their bid to retake both the House and Senate. After Tuesday’s midterm elections Republicans stand to not only not take the Senate but may in fact be pushed further into the minority; meanwhile, a razor-thin House majority looks possible but not definite as a few races remain uncalled in western states.

Mr Trump has become his party’s scapegoat as a wave of editorials and opinion articles in conservative media blame the ex-president for valuing fealty above all other characteristics and leading the GOP down a path where its national presence was unpalatable for many Americans.

“It’s Mitch McConnell’s fault. Spending money to defeat great Republican candidates instead of backing Blake Masters and others was a big mistake. Giving 4 Trillion Dollars to the Radical Left for the Green New Deal, not Infrastructure, was an even bigger mistake. He blew the Midterms, and everyone despises him and his otherwise lovely wife, Coco Chow!” wrote the ex-president.

The obvious racist reference to Mr McConnell’s wife is only the latest in a line of increasingly ugly remarks that the ex-president has made about his former secretary of Transportation despite her now-total step back from the public sphere; Ms Chao has almost completely avoiding making public remarks of her own and has neither responded to the racist questions about her heritage from her former boss nor returned fire.............

MSN

 

[MT15]

Tell me again that overturning Roe didn’t matter

 

[Taurus]

Tell me again that overturning Roe didn’t matter

If Rev Warnock can replicate those numbers and get like, fifteen white men to vote for him, he'll win easily.

 

[CoolBrees]

@MT15

You’re happy now; wait until they figure that it is easier to try to take away your right to vote than it is to give in to the policies necessary to appeal to that demographic.

I’m only half kidding sadly

 

[Optimus Prime]

there's no way this is seriously proposed right? You don't need to be a member of the House to be Speaker of the House?
===============================================================================
Maryland Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin said pro-MAGA House members have talked "repeatedly" about voting to instate former President Donald Trump as Speaker should Republicans take control of the chamber this election cycle.

During a Sunday appearance on "Face the Nation" with Margaret Brennan, Raskin said pro-Trump Republicans want to get rid of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and could attempt to vote in Trump as his replacement. Raskin pointed to Arizona Rep. Andy Biggs as an example of people who have pushed back against voting McCarthy into Speakership.

"And they might just vote for Trump, when they, you know, take the roll call for speaker," Raskin said. " So we know that the hard right Freedom Caucus people are in search of another candidate and one potential candidate whose name has been floated is Donald Trump himself, because the Speaker of the House does not have to be a member of the House. And they are talking about putting Trump right there."

"Well, they talk about it repeatedly," Raskin replied. "And if Trump decided he wanted to do it, it would pose a profound problem for their party because they refuse to do the right thing." ...........

MSN

 

[SFIDC3]

Donald Trump sought to escape blame for the poor showing of his party in the 2022 midterms on Sunday and escalated his racist attacks against the wife of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, his former secretary of Transporation, Elaine Chao.

The latest attack came in the form of another “truth” from Mr Trump’s Truth Social platform, and followed a dismal performance by the Republican Party in their bid to retake both the House and Senate. After Tuesday’s midterm elections Republicans stand to not only not take the Senate but may in fact be pushed further into the minority; meanwhile, a razor-thin House majority looks possible but not definite as a few races remain uncalled in western states.

Mr Trump has become his party’s scapegoat as a wave of editorials and opinion articles in conservative media blame the ex-president for valuing fealty above all other characteristics and leading the GOP down a path where its national presence was unpalatable for many Americans.

“It’s Mitch McConnell’s fault. Spending money to defeat great Republican candidates instead of backing Blake Masters and others was a big mistake. Giving 4 Trillion Dollars to the Radical Left for the Green New Deal, not Infrastructure, was an even bigger mistake. He blew the Midterms, and everyone despises him and his otherwise lovely wife, Coco Chow!” wrote the ex-president.

The obvious racist reference to Mr McConnell’s wife is only the latest in a line of increasingly ugly remarks that the ex-president has made about his former secretary of Transportation despite her now-total step back from the public sphere; Ms Chao has almost completely avoiding making public remarks of her own and has neither responded to the racist questions about her heritage from her former boss nor returned fire.............

MSN

Ms Chao was secretary of Labor back in the W days….it seemed like every time she sent out an employee wide email, there would be multiple follow ups with corrections….it was bizarre and it rarely happened with other secretary’s (and I was there through many)….she was viewed as very arrogant by the execs (at least the ones that I knew) so it became kind of a joke at meetings….basically she didn’t have the capacity or self awareness to be embarrassed…almost everyone was glad when she was gone…..

 

[MT15]

One more for Dems.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

One more for Dems.

Anyone know if this is a flip or not?

 

[MT15]

Looks like she was the incumbent. Not sure if that is one of the ones rated a toss up though. I cannot keep all those CA districts straight, lol.

 

[MT15]

 

[Optimus Prime]

With less than 10 percent of the estimated vote left to count in Arizona’s governor race, Democrat Katie Hobbs leads Republican Kari Lake by 24,772 raw votes as of Monday afternoon — just 1 percentage point.

Lake is expected to further close Hobbs’s lead, but the Republican’s path to victory looks increasingly narrow after recent batches of results.

“Extremely tough to see how Kari Lake (R) wins now,” tweeted The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman on Sunday evening.

The Arizona secretary of state’s office indicates roughly 169,500 votes are left to count statewide as of Monday afternoon, meaning Lake would need about 57 percent of remaining ballots to pull off a victory.

The vast majority of the remaining votes will come from Arizona’s three most populous counties: Maricopa County, which includes the Phoenix area; Pima County, which includes Tucson and stretches westward; and Pinal County, which includes areas between the two cities..........

MSN

 

[GrandAdmiral]

With less than 10 percent of the estimated vote left to count in Arizona’s governor race, Democrat Katie Hobbs leads Republican Kari Lake by 24,772 raw votes as of Monday afternoon — just 1 percentage point.

Lake is expected to further close Hobbs’s lead, but the Republican’s path to victory looks increasingly narrow after recent batches of results.

“Extremely tough to see how Kari Lake (R) wins now,” tweeted The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman on Sunday evening.

The Arizona secretary of state’s office indicates roughly 169,500 votes are left to count statewide as of Monday afternoon, meaning Lake would need about 57 percent of remaining ballots to pull off a victory.

The vast majority of the remaining votes will come from Arizona’s three most populous counties: Maricopa County, which includes the Phoenix area; Pima County, which includes Tucson and stretches westward; and Pinal County, which includes areas between the two cities..........

MSN

I still say that if Hobbs had the sense to debate Lake, we wouldn't be having this conversation and the race would have already been called, just like the senatorial race.

 

[MT15]

I’m not so sure. Lake is telegenic and a forceful speaker. If she by contrast made Hobbs seem like a fragile flower it might have been over. I think it was a tough decision either way.

 

[MT15]

They must be somewhat worried.

 

[MT15]

NBC just called Hobbs for AZ gov. Yay!

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Saw that. CNN is still being iffy with the numbers.