Midterm projections. (1 Viewer)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Maria Bartiromo is a co-defendant in one of the two billion-dollar defamation lawsuits Fox News is facing over its coverage of the 2020 election. But that hasn’t stopped the Fox Business anchor from continuing to suggest American elections are corrupted by fraud.

Bartiromo spoke with Congressman-elect John James on Monday, and asked the Michigan Republican how many undocumented immigrants voted in Arizona and elsewhere.

People are really disenfranchised by the fact that Election Day is no longer Election Day. I mean, here we are, five days and the ballots are still being counted in Arizona. What’s going on? Is there anything that you can do to get us back to where we were? And by the way, how many illegals voted in this election?
My friend told me she went to go vote, and she said she had her ID. She says “here’s my ID.” They said “Put it away. Put it away. We don’t want to see your ID.” Why not?

Bartiromo did not provide any evidence for her claim beyond the anecdote about her friend. Arizona requires voters to confirm their identity with photo ID at their polling place...........

‘How Many Illegals Voted?!’ Maria Bartiromo Rants About Midterms While Facing Billion-Dollar Lawsuit Over 2020 Claims

 

[Optimus Prime]

For many years, the manner in which our country elects its leaders has been a very favorable setup for Republicans.

Not only did they win the 2000 and 2016 presidential elections despite getting fewer votes, but they also held the House in 1996 and 2012 despite getting fewer votes.

Republicans have regularly won more House seats than their popular vote share would suggest — in large part thanks to their superior control of redistricting.

The 2022 election, though, looks like it will buck that trend.

Republicans appear primed to win the narrowest of House majorities — around 220-215 or 219-216 — despite possibly winning a majority of the votes nationwide and edging Democrats by around three or four percentage points.

If they do ultimately win by around three or four points, it would mean Republicans improved on their margin from the 2020 election by around six or seven points, but they were only able to add about 2 percent of seats, as the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman notes.

This has understandably led to some griping and head-scratching among Republicans who wonder how they’re struggling to win the House despite that swing. But it’s worth putting in context.

The first thing to note is that we have incomplete results. The Cook Political Report’s national popular vote tracker currently shows Republicans winning 51.5 percent of House votes to the Democrats’ 47 percent — a gap of 4.5 points.

It’s safe to assume Republicans will win the popular vote by a few points, but that margin will continue to narrow as we get more results from blue-leaning states out west, especially California.

The second point is that the popular vote can be deceiving. That’s especially the case in the battle for the Senate, but it’s also true of the House.

The reason: Some districts don’t feature two major-party candidates, and as a result, those races skew the overall numbers. That’s because having no major-party opponent generally means candidates run up a much bigger margin than they otherwise would.............

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/14/republican-popular-vote-seats/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3855e46%2F6373cb777e2620469f10c1b1%2F59813061ae7e8a6816fb1940%2F59%2F70%2F6373cb777e2620469f10c1b1&wp_cu=f59d95843d1b8569d5feb9225743f8ec%7C42E730F6C5F01223E0530100007F1ADF

 

[DaveXA]

Man that's just fantastic. Lmao!

 

[MT15]

I would really like to know if all those people knew their polls were crap. Seems like McConnell knew.

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

[MT15]

Seems like Rick Scott might be going through some things:

 

[MT15]

This is for a state legislature seat in PA. This is what the Rs are doing to try to keep the flip from happening:

 

[bdb13]

WASHINGTON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Republicans were projected to win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday, setting the stage for two years of divided government as President Joe Biden's Democratic Party held control of the Senate.

The victory gives Republicans the power to rein in Biden's agenda, as well as to launch potentially politically damaging probes of his administration and family, though it falls far short of the "red wave" the party had hoped for.

Republicans win U.S. House majority, setting stage for divided government

Republicans were projected to win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday, setting the stage for two years of divided government as President Joe Biden's Democratic Party held control of the Senate.

www.reuters.com

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Would be nice but I don't see curing and any remaining counts making up Bobo's 1,200 or so vote lead.

 

[DaveXA]

Yeah, it's a done deal. Unfortunately, the Jan 6th commission is RIP after Dec 31. I guess they'll have to go ahead and wrap it up and let the DOJ do their own work after that.

 

[MT15]

Would be nice but I don't see curing and any remaining counts making up Bobo's 1,200 or so vote lead.

I read they had already cut that lead in half, and there were enough ballots out there to take the lead. Just a matter if they can get them done by the deadline. This was on Twitter though, and cannot be confirmed. Guess we will have to wait and see.

 

[zztop]

 

[Bolo]

Lol The Republicans are so predictable. Today the house began laying their ground work to impeach Biden. They know it won't fly in the Senate. So, every ones time will get wasted. Why not just hire a special counsel who can investigate all this "damning evidence" that they supposedly have and devote their time to coming up with solutions that are plaguing the country. I hated when the Democrats did this, they wasted everyones time with Trump and Russia and it led to a nothing burger because the Senate was never going to convict nor take it seriously.

 

[bdb13]

Lol The Republicans are so predictable. Today the house began laying their ground work to impeach Biden. They know it won't fly in the Senate. So, every ones time will get wasted. Why not just hire a special counsel who can investigate all this "damning evidence" that they supposedly have and devote their time to coming up with solutions that are plaguing the country. I hated when the Democrats did this, they wasted everyones time with Trump and Russia and it led to a nothing burger because the Senate was never going to convict nor take it seriously.

I'm sure the moderates and independents who just voted against Republicans because of shirt like this will be won over.. by shirt like this.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

You would think they learned after the "red wave" turned into a drip. Nah... they are just going to double-down on Hunter Biden stupidity and end up losing the majority in 2024 as independents and moderates see the shirt-show that is the modern GOP.

 

[Taurus]

Lol The Republicans are so predictable. Today the house began laying their ground work to impeach Biden. They know it won't fly in the Senate. So, every ones time will get wasted. Why not just hire a special counsel who can investigate all this "damning evidence" that they supposedly have and devote their time to coming up with solutions that are plaguing the country. I hated when the Democrats did this, they wasted everyones time with Trump and Russia and it led to a nothing burger because the Senate was never going to convict nor take it seriously.

Except in both instances there were legitimate reasons to impeach Trump.

So let's see what the GQP can gin up. Hunter's laptop? Whitewater? Benghazi, maybe?

 

[bdb13]

Except in both instances there were legitimate reasons to impeach Trump.

So let's see what the GQP can gin up. Hunter's laptop? Whitewater? Benghazi, maybe?

Hunter's laptop is great red meat for the people who already voted for them but I think that's about as far as those legs run.

 

[MT15]

Hunter's laptop is great red meat for the people who already voted for them but I think that's about as far as those legs run.

There’s already an active DOJ investigation. The most they have found so far is some possible tax infractions, and they’ve been at it for a while. There’s nothing there. But they will waste millions of dollars on it just like Benghazi and come up with nothing. It’s what they want to do, they don’t want to solve any problems that people have that’s for damn sure.