Midterm projections. (4 Viewers)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[DaveXA]

I go back and forth on if Biden should run. The other day he mentioned fallujah out of nowhere as he rambled, and I cringed so hard. ON THE OTHER HAND, the incumbent advantage would be insane to give up. An incumbent president has lost twice in the last 40 years, both Republicans.

I'm of the opinion that even with the incumbent advantage, Biden is going to lose the election. He just doesn't inspire much confidence, and the rambling is going to get worse. The only way he wins is if Trump wins the nomination and Trump completely forks it up, which is certainly possible. If Trump loses the nomination and any other Republican runs, I'd say the odds are 90% Biden would lose.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

I go back and forth on if Biden should run. The other day he mentioned fallujah out of nowhere as he rambled, and I cringed so hard. ON THE OTHER HAND, the incumbent advantage would be insane to give up. An incumbent president has lost twice in the last 40 years, both Republicans.

I tend to shy away from historical trends outside of the last six or so years because we are living in vastly different and hyper-partisan times. And yes, Biden shows his signs of age/forgetfulness more than most Dems would care to admit. The Dems need a younger candidate with less perceived baggage like Mark Kelly or Pete Buttigieg.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

I'm of the opinion that even with the incumbent advantage, Biden is going to lose the election. He just doesn't inspire much confidence, and the rambling is going to get worse. The only way he wins is if Trump wins the nomination and Trump completely forks it up, which is certainly possible. If Trump loses the nomination and any other Republican runs, I'd say the odds are 90% Biden would lose.

I'm still unsure what happens in the latter scenario. If anyone but Trump wins the nomination, he is going to take a non-trivial amount of voters out of the general election equation as they will just stay home and refuse to vote for the GOP nominee. Even if it's someone who is obviously Trump-like such as DeSantis -- by the end of the primary, Trump will have painted DeSantis as a communist groomer. If it's a non Trump Republican like Chris Sununu or even Mike Pence (who I doubt gets more than 5% in the primaries but I'm just throwing out names) then I'm perfectly happy with a relatively sane Republican winning the general election for the long-term health of this country/political discourse.

 

[bdb13]

I tend to shy away from historical trends outside of the last six or so years because we are living in vastly different and hyper-partisan times. And yes, Biden shows his signs of age/forgetfulness more than most Dems would care to admit. The Dems need a younger candidate with less perceived baggage like Mark Kelly or Pete Buttigieg.

Mark Kelly would win.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Mark Kelly would win.

Only question is does the DNC have the foresight to back him or do they try to foist Harris on to us?

 

[bdb13]

Only question is does the DNC have the foresight to back him or do they try to foist Harris on to us?

Kamala Harris will not be winning the Presidency.. the DNC would be wise to come to that realization sooner rather than later.

 

[DaveXA]

Kamala Harris will not be winning the Presidency.. the DNC would be wise to come to that realization sooner rather than later.

Agreed. I'd gladly vote for Mark Kelly.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Kamala Harris will not be winning the Presidency.. the DNC would be wise to come to that realization sooner rather than later.

I knew that after she backed out of the 2020 campaign. She done nothing since then, including becoming Vice President to redeem herself. She's more Dan Quayle than she is George H.W. Bush.

 

[zztop]

I came across this. I didn't listen to the podcast mentioned, but the article gives a rundown about it

GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger says House Republicans will have a 'totally nonfunctional majority' in 2023 and McCarthy as speaker will be 'the equivalent of the dog who caught the car'

"This couldn't happen to a nicer guy," he quipped. "I used to be great friends with Kevin McCarthy. He's been the biggest disappointment of my life."

www.businessinsider.com

 

[MT15]

Same as her mentor:

 

[Optimus Prime]

this won't happen right?

 

[MT15]

I'm of the opinion that even with the incumbent advantage, Biden is going to lose the election. He just doesn't inspire much confidence, and the rambling is going to get worse. The only way he wins is if Trump wins the nomination and Trump completely forks it up, which is certainly possible. If Trump loses the nomination and any other Republican runs, I'd say the odds are 90% Biden would lose.

I think people can get past the halting speech patterns and look at results. He’s been doing a great job if you look at results. Objectively he’s handling multiple foreign crises very competently. So far, we are threading the needle on the economy as well. He’s made tremendous headway lowering the deficit. He’s had some pretty impressive legislative wins, considering the slim margins in both sides of Congress. Job growth has been very good. Inflation looks to be easing.

If the Rs in the House act like they are promising to act, the contrast between Dems and Rs will favor Dems easily. They (Rs) look like absolute clowns at the moment.

Not seeing how going with someone like DeSantis would work that well against Biden. DeSantis has all the evil of Trump and none of the personal appeal.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

this won't happen right?

If you saw how quickly MTG fell in line behind McCarthy it is almost a certainty that she extracted certain guarantees from him along with some procedural rules that basically allow the membership to remove a Speaker should be not deliver on those guarantees. McCarthy either concedes to the demands of the far right or he doesn't get the votes to be speaker.

The power play on the other side is for a group of about a dozen moderate Republicans to get together, pick one of their own, and broker a deal with Dems to back that person.

 

[coldseat]

If you saw how quickly MTG fell in line behind McCarthy it is almost a certainty that she extracted certain guarantees from him along with some procedural rules that basically allow the membership to remove a Speaker should be not deliver on those guarantees. McCarthy either concedes to the demands of the far right or he doesn't get the votes to be speaker.

The power play on the other side is for a group of about a dozen moderate Republicans to get together, pick one of their own, and broker a deal with Dems to back that person.

I doubt there are any moderate Republicans left in the House with that type of backbone. All of the moderate Republicans that voted to impeach Trump were voted out.

 

[samiam5211]

If you saw how quickly MTG fell in line behind McCarthy it is almost a certainty that she extracted certain guarantees from him along with some procedural rules that basically allow the membership to remove a Speaker should be not deliver on those guarantees. McCarthy either concedes to the demands of the far right or he doesn't get the votes to be speaker.

The power play on the other side is for a group of about a dozen moderate Republicans to get together, pick one of their own, and broker a deal with Dems to back that person.

Kevin should realize that a deal with MTG is about a solid as a deal with DJT.

She will break whatever their deal is, and dare him to do something about it.

 

[zztop]

Well, she didn't lie in that interview when asked if she would concede.

yeah, and looks like she is doubling down

Lake seeks election records in suit against Arizona county

Kari Lake, the defeated Republican candidate for Arizona governor, has filed a public records lawsuit demanding Maricopa County hand over a variety of documents related to the election.

apnews.com

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

yeah, and looks like she is doubling down

Lake seeks election records in suit against Arizona county

Kari Lake, the defeated Republican candidate for Arizona governor, has filed a public records lawsuit demanding Maricopa County hand over a variety of documents related to the election.

apnews.com

Is it time to call the Cyber Ninjas again???

 

[SaintForLife]