Midterm projections. (1 Viewer)

[SamAndreas]

I've voted and election day is something like 5 or so days away. That means it's time for projections as to how it goes this time.

Usually I have a good sense, and good track record for being right using the simple time proven system of "who's turn it is". That's the method where one ignores everything about the current issues, and who is running. One only uses who's the incumbent along with the last election's outcome to predict the next election.

Under that simple system this upcoming midterm election is a case of it historically being the Republican's turn.

But this time it doesn't quite fit that normal mode. Trump threw it all out of whack. Republicans seem to be entirely capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory this time. So instead of thinking that the Republicans are going to win this one, I don't know.

That's my projection. I Don't Know. I'm a bit hopeful this time instead of being adjusted to the idea that the Republicans are going to win this one for sure.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

The Democrats bungled their approach to 2016. There is a difference between foreign powers influencing elections and people claiming the election itself is being stolen by means of fake ballots or voter fraud. Given your propensity to talk about how the elite, CIA, etc. have an agenda, it wouldn't make sense for you to deny foreign governments would attempt to interfere with our elections. Not only is it common sense but it dovetails with your own arguments. Does it make any sense for you and GG to argue the elite are trying to influence elections but argue Russia would not?

You might think it sophistry but, IMO, there is a difference between the proposition that foreign powers try to influence elections with social media presence versus those who think ballots are being harvested or conjured out of thin air.

There is outside influence and there is the count itself. It's perfectly reasonable to think the former is happening while, in the absence of any evidence to the contrary, the latter is not.

 

[DaveXA]

The Democrats bungled their approach to 2016. There is a difference between foreign powers influencing elections and people claiming the election itself is being stolen by means of fake ballots or voter fraud. Given your propensity to talk about how the elite, CIA, etc. have an agenda, it wouldn't make sense for you to deny foreign governments would attempt to interfere with our elections. Not only is it common sense but it dovetails with your own arguments. Does it make any sense for you and GG to argue the elite are trying to influence elections but argue Russia would not?

You might think it sophistry but, IMO, there is a difference between the proposition that foreign powers try to influence elections with social media presence versus those who think ballots are being harvested or conjured out of thin air.

There is outside influence and there is the count itself. It's perfectly reasonable to think the former is happening while, in the absence of any evidence to the contrary, the latter is not.

Yeah, the conflating of foreign interference and election vote counting shenanigans is clearly revisionist history, and an attempt to couch them as wholly proving one thing or another.

 

[Optimus Prime]

As Arizona counties face a Monday deadline to certify their midterm election results, Republican candidates and activists promoting false theories of voter fraud are refusing to back down.

State Senator-elect Jake Hoffman, head of Arizona’s Freedom Caucus, a group of largely pro-Trump Republican state lawmakers, told Reuters he will lead an investigation into the state’s election when the legislature reconvenes in January.

Right-wing activist Steve Bannon, a former Trump administration official and promoter of election conspiracy theories, said voting machine mishaps on the Nov. 8 Election Day tainted Democrat Katie Hobbs’ victory over Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor who has refused to concede.

Hobbs “will never be considered legitimate,” said Bannon, who has been providing Lake counsel. "That's going to cripple her ability to govern. So that's why this is a crisis. There's a crisis for the entire state.”

Lake, a vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump, was one of dozens of Republican candidates who questioned or denied the outcome of the 2020 presidential election and lost in the midterms..............

In Arizona, election deniers refuse to back down

 

[Optimus Prime]

Donald Trump demanded that Kari Lake be 'installed' as Arizona's next governor as six counties prepare to meet the Monday deadline to certify the 2022 midterm election results.

With 99 percent of the vote reported in Arizona, there is just 0.6 percent separating Lake from the projected victor, her Democratic opponent Katie Hobbs.

But Republican outcry, led by Lake and former President Trump, claims there was foul play in the midterms due to Hobbs' Secretary of State role, which puts her in charge of Arizona's elections.

Malfunctions with voting machines in the state's largest jurisdiction, Maricopa County, also led them to question the results, which are separated by approximately 17,000 votes.

'Massive numbers of 'BROKEN' voting machines in Republican Districts on Election Day,' Trump posted to his Truth Social account on Monday morning. 'Mechanics sent in to 'FIX' them made them worse.'

'Kari had to be taken to a Democrat area, which was working perfectly, to vote. Her opponent ran the Election. This is yet another criminal voting operation - SO OBVIOUS,' the former president said............

Trump insists Lake should be 'installed as AZ Governor' as six counties may certify results TODAY

 

[Optimus Prime]

PHOENIX (AP) — Republican officials in a rural Arizona county refused on Monday to certify the 2022 electionahead of the deadline amid pressure from prominent Republicans to reject a vote count that had Democrats winning U.S. Senate, governor and other statewide races.

State election officials have said they will sue Cochise County if the board of supervisors misses Monday’s deadline to approve the official tally of votes, known as the canvass. The two Republican county supervisors delayed the canvass vote until hearing once more about concerns over the certification of ballot tabulators, though election officials have repeatedly said the equipment is properly approved.

Democratic election attorney Marc Elias pledged on Twitter to sue the county. Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs’s office has previously said it would sue if the county misses the deadline.


“The Board of Supervisors had all of the information they needed to certify this election and failed to uphold their responsibility for Cochise voters,” Sophia Solis, a spokeswoman for Hobbs, said in an email.

Elsewhere, Republican supervisors in Mohave County postponed a certification vote until Thursday. after hearing comments from residents angry about problems with ballot printers in Maricopa County. Officials in Maricopa County, the state’s largest, containing Phoenix, said everyone had a chance to vote and all legal ballots were counted…….

GOP-controlled Arizona county refuses to certify election

PHOENIX (AP) — Republican officials in a rural Arizona county refused on Monday to certify the 2022 election ahead of the deadline amid pressure from prominent Republicans to reject a vote count that had Democrats winning U.S.

apnews.com

 

[brandon]

But Republican outcry, led by Lake and former President Trump, claims there was foul play in the midterms due to Hobbs' Secretary of State role, which puts her in charge of Arizona's elections.

Holy projection, Batman.

 

[zztop]

an update

Arizona certifies 2022 election despite GOP complaints

PHOENIX (AP) — Arizona's top officials certified the midterm election results Monday, formalizing victories for Democrats over Republicans who falsely claimed the 2020 election was rigged.

apnews.com

 

[zztop]

I expected nothing less

Kari Lake challenges her defeat in Arizona governor’s race

Kari Lake, the Republican defeated in Arizona governor’s race, is formally challenging her loss to Democrat Katie Hobbs.

apnews.com

The challenge filed in Maricopa County Superior Court also alleges hundreds of thousands of ballots were illegally cast, but there’s no evidence that’s true.

 

[Taurus]

I expected nothing less

Kari Lake challenges her defeat in Arizona governor’s race

Kari Lake, the Republican defeated in Arizona governor’s race, is formally challenging her loss to Democrat Katie Hobbs.

apnews.com

The challenge filed in Maricopa County Superior Court also alleges hundreds of thousands of ballots were illegally cast, but there’s no evidence that’s true.

Hundreds of thousands, huh?

That should be easy enough to prove. Stick your hand in a ballot box and pull out a few, at least one of them is bound to be bad.
Or go over the voter rolls in a couple of counties. Every fifth or sixth voter should be fictitious or dead.
With only a couple day's work you ought to be able to present hundreds of fraudulent ballots to the court.
Whatever are they waiting for?

 

[MT15]

I thought this was pretty funny:

 

[MT15]

Evidently one of the AZ lawsuits has been dismissed already:

Post News

Access journalism from premium publishers without subscriptions or ads. Discover, follow, and connect with diverse voices on topics you care about.

post.news

 

[MT15]

Another version. Let me know which one works best for you guys.

Democracy Docket (@democracydocket@mas.to)

ALERT: Arizona court dismisses election denier Mark Finchem's (R) lawsuit contesting his loss in the AZ secretary of state race. The judge rejected all of Finchem's claims, calling them "frivolous," "wholly unsupported by the record" and "fatally flawed."...

mas.to

 

[DaveXA]

Another version. Let me know which one works best for you guys.

Democracy Docket (@democracydocket@mas.to)

ALERT: Arizona court dismisses election denier Mark Finchem's (R) lawsuit contesting his loss in the AZ secretary of state race. The judge rejected all of Finchem's claims, calling them "frivolous," "wholly unsupported by the record" and "fatally flawed."...

mas.to

At least the courts are seeing right through all the shenanigans.

 

[SamAndreas]

Evidently one of the AZ lawsuits has been dismissed already:

Post News

Access journalism from premium publishers without subscriptions or ads. Discover, follow, and connect with diverse voices on topics you care about.

post.news

Insofar as I'm aware that leaves only one Arizona case left. Kari Lake's second lawsuit is still going and even got a somewhat favorable order a few hours ago.

The Court granted Lake's chosen representative the opportunity to inspect the following:

1) Fifty randomly selected “ballot-on-demand” (BOD) printed ballots cast on Election Day from six vote centers in Maricopa County chosen by her representative;

2) Fifty randomly selected early ballots cast in the 2022 general election from six separate Maricopa County batches chosen by her representative;

3) Fifty randomly selected BOD printed ballots that were marked spoiled on Election Day from six separate Maricopa County vote centers chosen by her representative

So her representative gets to inspect a total of 600 ballots and 300 spoiled ballots. In that court order the judge makes a reference regarding a conditional instance of what might occur at, or after, a trial. I don't think that necessarily means that the judge is expecting this case to make it to trial, but such a reference might be indicative of that possibility.

The judge for this case was appointed by that crazy Jan Brewer back in 2010. One could read that to be about the same as Trump having appointed a judge.


This is where you can read that court order:

Judge grants Kari Lake's request to inspect ballots

A judge has granted Kari Lake's request to inspect various ballots counted Arizona's 2022 election.

www.abc15.com

 

[SamAndreas]

Another version. Let me know which one works best for you guys.

Democracy Docket (@democracydocket@mas.to)

ALERT: Arizona court dismisses election denier Mark Finchem's (R) lawsuit contesting his loss in the AZ secretary of state race. The judge rejected all of Finchem's claims, calling them "frivolous," "wholly unsupported by the record" and "fatally flawed."...

mas.to

I'm on the wait list for Post. I've seen what it looks like from having been on a friends machine who's already on Post and I like it. It's clean and fast and there is no limit to the leangth of post one wishes to write.

If anyone wants to try Post here's a link to the wait list:

Post News

Access journalism from premium publishers without subscriptions or ads. Discover, follow, and connect with diverse voices on topics you care about.

post.news

Since they are new they have to control how fast they grow or it will disrupt their servers because they have to add servers to keep up with the traffic. So it is a good positive thing that they are using a wait list, it shows that they are proficient at what they are doing.

 

[Optimus Prime]

shouldn't this be an immediate resignation situation?
=====================================

A newly elected Republican congressman appears to have invented portions of his biography.

George Santos, a son of Brazilian immigrants who presented himself as a "seasoned Wall Street financier and investor" who owned 13 properties and operated an animal rescue charity, became the first openly gay Republican to win a House seat as a non-incumbent, but a New York Times review of public documents and court filings called into question his résumé.

Both Citigroup and Goldman Sachs told the newspaper they had no record of Santos working there, as he had claimed, and Baruch College found no record that he had graduated in 2010, also as he claimed.

The Internal Revenue Service also found little evidence that his animal rescue group, Friend of Pets United, was a tax-exempt organization.


Santos loaned more than $700,000 to his campaign and donated thousands of dollars to other candidates in the past two years, but his company, the Devolder Organization, has virtually no online presence and his financial disclosures don't reveal any clients -- which election law experts say could be a problem if those clients actually exist.

The Times also could not find any records of the properties his family allegedly owns..............

Newly elected GOP congressman appears to have invented his backstory: report

 

[Optimus Prime]

About Maryland but I'm sure other states are the same way
====================================


As the 2020 presidential election neared, then-President Donald Trump warned all Americans — especially Republicans — about the dangers he saw in early, absentee, and mail-in voting.

“As far as the ballots are concerned, it’s a disaster,” he said during a September 2020 presidential debate, repeating a fully debunked, utterly untrue argument that such ballots lead to election fraud.

But Trump, who lost the 2020 election to Democrat Joe Biden, was right in one way. Mail-in voting was a disaster – for Maryland Republicans in 2022.

In at least five major races in the state, Republican candidates led on Election Night only to see their leads slip away over the next few days as mail-in ballots were counted. Five conservatives lost their leads, too, in nonpartisan races for school board seats in the state.

Given what happened, many Republicans now say they must embrace mail-in voting to give themselves better odds in future elections.

“I’m not aware of any efforts to help Republicans vote by mail, but on the Democrat side, there were a lot of efforts — and I think we’re seeing that in the results,” said Del. Neil Parrott, a Republican who led in his race for the District 6 U.S. House seat on Election Night only to lose to the incumbent Democrat, Rep. David Trone, when the mail-in votes were counted.

Flipping the results

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, early voting and mail-in ballots have become common ways to cast ballots in recent elections, including in Maryland.

In November’s general election, a little over two million ballots were cast in Maryland, and over 900,000 were either cast during early voting or mailed in, state elections records show.

But in Maryland, the mail-in ballots could not be counted until after Election Day. That’s because in May, Gov. Larry Hogan vetoed a bill that state lawmakers passed that would have allowed for counting mail-in ballots before Election Day. Hogan said the election reform bill that would have allowed the earlier counting of mail-in votes didn’t go far enough to prevent voter fraud.

The requirement that mail-in votes be counted after Election Day, combined with the Democrats’ embrace of mail-in voting, made for some misleading preliminary results on Election Night. For example:

• In the Anne Arundel County executive race, Republican County Councilwoman Jessica Haire led the incumbent Democrat, Steuart Pittman, by 10,863 votes on Election Night. But once all the mail-in ballots were counted, Pittman was declared the winner — as 42,156 of the 58,504 mail-in ballots went the Democrat’s way.
• In the race to represent District 6 as a member in the U.S. House, Parrott led by over 11,000 votes just after Election Day. But Trone won by 24,524 votes – because the Democratic incumbent received about 33,000 more mail-in ballots...............

In Maryland, Dems capitalized on mail in voting – but the GOP didn’t

 

[Optimus Prime]

Maybe we haven't seen the last of Kari lake
===========================

Kari Lake may have recently lost her bid for Arizona governor, but the Republican could potentially fare better in a future race for the U.S. Senate.

A new poll from Public Policy Polling (PPP) asked voters who they'd choose between three Arizona candidates. Apart from Lake, the options included Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego and Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who recently announced that she would be registering as an independent.

Out of these three possibilities, the poll suggests that voters would pick Lake.

"Fresh new Arizona numbers!" PPP, a Democratic Party-affiliated firm, tweeted on Thursday. "In a three way race Kyrsten Sinema would get just 13% to 41% for Kari Lake and 40% for Ruben Gallego.".............

MSN

www.msn.com