General Election 2024 Biden vs Trump (2 Viewers)

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    SteveSBrickNJ

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    As we head toward the summer and the National Party Conventions, it might be handy to have a thread focused on the upcoming matchup of current President Biden vs Former President Trump.
    As of April 28,2024 , CNN's poll shows Trump leading. Yet polls are not always accurate and they are constantly changing.
    Feel free to use this thread for all things relating to Biden vs Trump.
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    Hi, Steve. No, it’s actually not a good source. The sense of panic from GOP pollsters can be seen by the ever-more-desperate polling which is putting out a fantasy where Trump wins all the states. RCP hasn’t been a good source for a good while now. Very slanted.
    Oh. It's rare to see something slanted in the conservative direction. I'll take your word for it....yet SFL is welcome to convince people that you are not correct.
    Let's see what he does or does not say.
     
    That's Copacabana Brazil. I'm looking at that beach from my ship right now. Madina just had a million person free concert there.
     
    How about this New York Times based Yahoo News article??
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    How about this New York Times based Yahoo News article??
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    Oh, I just saw a discussion about this poll. Let me find it.
     
    Also, someone tried to verify a voter who was quoted in the piece, and could not do so.

     
    How about this New York Times based Yahoo News article??
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    Let me see, hmm. Interesting, it suggests that Democrat voters are ticket splitting in those states.

    How plausible is that, voting for a Democratic Senate candidate, but scorning Biden for Trump???
     
    One thing that is concerning for me (an anti-Trumper) is that he's polling ahead of Biden in a lot of polls right now. Historically, the polls underestimate his turnout. Trump was consistently behind Biden in most of the polls before the 2020 election (some way behind) and it turned out razor close. Considering all of the negative factors surrounding Trump, I HUGELY (YUGELY) concerned about the election. This dude should be losing by double digits in the polls. He should not be even a consideration for the American people.
     
    One thing that is concerning for me (an anti-Trumper) is that he's polling ahead of Biden in a lot of polls right now. Historically, the polls underestimate his turnout. Trump was consistently behind Biden in most of the polls before the 2020 election (some way behind) and it turned out razor close. Considering all of the negative factors surrounding Trump, I HUGELY (YUGELY) concerned about the election. This dude should be losing by double digits in the polls. He should not be even a consideration for the American people.
    I feel this concern. However, I am reading some people who know polls who are saying a lot of these polls are “cooked” to help Trump. And, even in the ones who aren’t, media is presenting them in a way to emphasize the closest race they can - because they need to generate interest in their stories.

    For instance - the recent NYT coverage of that nationwide poll they chose to emphasize registered voters where Trump has a slight edge within the margin or error (IIRC), rather than likely voters where Biden has a 6 point edge. Also, I am reading that some polls are weighting this election as if we will have the same turnout as 2020, where it was made easier to vote due to the pandemic and we had record turnout. Most people don’t think the turnout will be that high.

    They are also saying that these polls showing a swing toward Trump among voters of color would represent historic swings in these voters, and that recent elections don’t actually show this. A pollster can basically get any result they want by weighting the results for categories of people.

    I also just read a political consultant point out that people at this point in the election cycle are prone to spouting off. They might say they will vote for Trump, or RFK, Jr, because they are just mad about gas prices or inflation. But when the election actually happens, they vote responsibly.

    Also, a MOC pointed out that about right now in Obama’s first term, Romney was leading in most polls.

    I am also noting Trump’s diminished verbal capacity. It really is striking if you pay attention. He’s deteriorating far more than Biden has. Once most people start paying attention, they will notice it also. I don’t think he will ever debate Biden, simply because he cannot do it.

    There exists a polling thread on this forum that has specifics if you want to look at it.
     
    Oh, I just saw a discussion about this poll. Let me find it.
    This post of mine is actually related to yesterday and the issue of the potential bias of Real Clear Politics. @SaintForLife
    This morning (my last day of school before my wife and I head down to Virginia tomorrow morning to prepare for our daughter's 5/18 wedding)....this morning I have some free time at school as our school's 5th grade takes their final day of state mandated testing.
    ......so anyway, I found THIS...
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    I feel this concern. However, I am reading some people who know polls who are saying a lot of these polls are “cooked” to help Trump. And, even in the ones who aren’t, media is presenting them in a way to emphasize the closest race they can - because they need to generate interest in their stories.

    For instance - the recent NYT coverage of that nationwide poll they chose to emphasize registered voters where Trump has a slight edge within the margin or error (IIRC), rather than likely voters where Biden has a 6 point edge. Also, I am reading that some polls are weighting this election as if we will have the same turnout as 2020, where it was made easier to vote due to the pandemic and we had record turnout. Most people don’t think the turnout will be that high.

    They are also saying that these polls showing a swing toward Trump among voters of color would represent historic swings in these voters, and that recent elections don’t actually show this. A pollster can basically get any result they want by weighting the results for categories of people.

    I also just read a political consultant point out that people at this point in the election cycle are prone to spouting off. They might say they will vote for Trump, or RFK, Jr, because they are just mad about gas prices or inflation. But when the election actually happens, they vote responsibly.

    Also, a MOC pointed out that about right now in Obama’s first term, Romney was leading in most polls.

    I am also noting Trump’s diminished verbal capacity. It really is striking if you pay attention. He’s deteriorating far more than Biden has. Once most people start paying attention, they will notice it also. I don’t think he will ever debate Biden, simply because he cannot do it.

    There exists a polling thread on this forum that has specifics if you want to look at it.
    The NY times poll was considered the best by ABC news


    Here is a recent poll. BB has every right to be concerned. I just hope the times is wrong here. According to them
    Trump is leading in 5 key swing states.

     
    Also, I am reading that some polls are weighting this election as if we will have the same turnout as 2020, where it was made easier to vote due to the pandemic and we had record turnout. Most people don’t think the turnout will be that high.
    But wouldn't this point FAVOR Trump and the Republicans?
     
    But wouldn't this point FAVOR Trump and the Republicans?
    I don’t think we know yet. I am finding comfort in the fact that with likely voters, Biden has a 6 point lead nationally. With registered voters it’s basically tied. This seems to be a pretty consistent finding, according to what I read. Likely voters favor Biden, registered voters are within the margin of error.

    My guess is that they are figuring that in 2020 we saw major turnout, which may be why it was closer than they thought, and if we go back to “normal” turnout the electorate will more closely match the likely voter category, than the registered voter category.

    But this is just my best guess.
     
    The NY times poll was considered the best by ABC news
    And they found a 6 point lead for Biden among likely voters. The NYT in their coverage chose to highlight the registered voters category. According to what I read, you would rather be leading with likely voters than registered voters.
     
    It's still pretty early for polling to be accurate. At this point though it shows that Biden has a lot of work to do to convince Americans he's the best choice. Whether the polls are accurate or not, the general split is pretty even, so he needs to aggressively make his case.

    If people are looking for comfort, about this time in 2022, polls showed a red wave that never materialized. Part of the problem is that polls in 2016 did a poor job of capturing Trump voters, so polls have been tinkering with them to account for that. In 2022, they over counted them a little, at least early on.
     
    It's still pretty early for polling to be accurate. At this point though it shows that Biden has a lot of work to do to convince Americans he's the best choice. Whether the polls are accurate or not, the general split is pretty even, so he needs to aggressively make his case.

    If people are looking for comfort, about this time in 2022, polls showed a red wave that never materialized. Part of the problem is that polls in 2016 did a poor job of capturing Trump voters, so polls have been tinkering with them to account for that. In 2022, they over counted them a little, at least early on.
    This is essentially what I was going to say about pollsters tweaking their weighting methodology. I think pollsters are constantly tweaking to account for the lack of landlines and the Trump phenomena. Since they overcounted Republicans in 2022, they may be tweaking it again now to lower their Republican weighting to adjust for the over count, which would be bad for Biden, since Democrats have to win the popular vote by a large margin, otherwise the battlegrounds will be lost. We know the populous California and New York can skew the popular vote, so if the popular vote is close, that is not good for Democrats.
     

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