The trade and economy mega-thread (10 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[faceman]

Last year, while Joe Biden was US president, Jenny and her husband booked a trip to Boston for June 2025.

The British couple had been to New York before and wanted to see more of the country. But after Donald Trump’s re-election in November, Jenny said a “shadow” began to fall on their travel plans.

Since Trump took office, reports have emerged from US border points of tourists being detained and interrogated, people with work permits sent to Ice detention centres and even a US citizen seemingly told to leave the country – as well as people being wrongly deported.


Overseas visits to the US were down 11.6% in March compared with the same month last year, according to the US National Travel and Tourism Office.

“I had a growing feeling that I really didn’t want to give this new America our money,” said Jenny, a 54-year-old former librarian from Northamptonshire. “But it took the news of the detainments at airports and borders to really crystallise our concerns into action.”

The pair decided to cancel the trip.

Dozens of people responded to an online callout to share their views about travelling to the US in light of the Trump administration’s policies. While several people reported no problems entering and leaving the US, others spoke of anxiety at the border and unpleasant interactions with officials – although many people raised it as being a longstanding problem.

Jenny said it was frightening to see the reports of detainments and deportations in the supposed “land of the free”.

After deciding not to travel, “we just feel so relieved,” she said. “We’ve now cancelled the flights and hotel and are heading to Crete for a week instead. We’ll visit Boston when Trump is long gone.”………

‘I don’t want to give money to this America’: tourists’ fears of US travel under Trump

With US visits down 11.6% in March compared with last year, people share their views and experiences on the US border

www.theguardian.com

A friend of mine from Ecuador did the same. She and her husband planned to celebrate their anniversary in Miami. They
cancelled when Trump won the election.

 

[Optimus Prime]

To add- China, in particular, runs a "long game" - they arent particularly worried about what they can/will accomplish in a relatively short 1-4 year span. Its forward-looking- decades in the future.
People like to claim Trump is playing chess. To use that analogy, when he is facing China, they arent playing/strategizing how THEY will move to checkmate you, THEY make moves to coerce you into moves that will checkmate yourself.
Thats the main difference between our governmental system and theirs- time. They have it as their whole country is aligned with it.

I think you even mentioned previously, they have been around for over 5000 years. They get it.

Meanwhile, quietly and without much press, they continue to make partnerships with others and if we arent careful, will awake one morning in the future to find out that China has now completely realigned the global trade and we are on the outside looking in.

And as you stated, buying those goods for pennies on the dollar, GONE. Thats when you see a revolt. ( although im sure a grand portion of the MAGA base will be spun into believing it was someone elses fault, not their dear leader )

I don’t remember where I first heard the line but it was basically

“The American economy is focused on the next quarter, the Japanese and Chinese economies are focused of the next quarter century”

 

[efil4]

this is going EXACTLY as i figured it would.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/21/trump-powell-attacks-interest-rates-fed.html

President Donald Trump on Monday ratcheted up his pressure campaign on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him a “major loser” and warning that the U.S. economy could slow down unless interest rates are lowered immediately

 

[superchuck500]

this is going EXACTLY as i figured it would.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/21/trump-powell-attacks-interest-rates-fed.html

President Donald Trump on Monday ratcheted up his pressure campaign on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him a “major loser” and warning that the U.S. economy could slow down unless interest rates are lowered immediately

So yeah, the president of the United States called the chair of the Federal Reserve a "major loser". Also, he's lying about inflation per usual. These economic metrics are going to become like the Covid metrics in 2020 - he's going just lie about them and try to gaslight America about it because that's what he does.

 

[bird]

DJIA shirting the bed again. Down 1,000.

 

[MT15]

So. Much. Winning.

 

[fooferdoggie]

So yeah, the president of the United States called the chair of the Federal Reserve a "major loser". Also, he's lying about inflation per usual. These economic metrics are going to become like the Covid metrics in 2020 - he's going just lie about them and try to gaslight America about it because that's what he does.

Someone is drunk on their own power.

 

[superchuck500]

So yeah, the president of the United States called the chair of the Federal Reserve a "major loser". Also, he's lying about inflation per usual. These economic metrics are going to become like the Covid metrics in 2020 - he's going just lie about them and try to gaslight America about it because that's what he does.

 

[efil4]

so looks like the median average is close to 4% for year end.

and this dude wants Powell to cut rate or remove him.

He wants to completely upend the financial markets and there is a reason, i just cant figure it out. Other than crypto.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

I'm starting to think i shouldn't have gotten back in the market... I think it's going to get bad. I'm not pulling out again, I saved myself a 20% shave, so I'll be happy with that... but I think there's a really good chance for another 20-30% drop and then a very long, slow recovery.

Unless this is just an act and a grift, which is also possible. But the downside risk is very high right now, imo.

 

[efil4]

So yeah, the president of the United States called the chair of the Federal Reserve a "major loser". Also, he's lying about inflation per usual. These economic metrics are going to become like the Covid metrics in 2020 - he's going just lie about them and try to gaslight America about it because that's what he does.

Dude said egg prices are down 92% from highs- YYYYYYYYYYeeeeeeeeeeeah aint no one paying $.70 dozen of eggs.

NINTEY TWO PERCENT he said and folks like "Yes they are much cheaper"

92% of $10 is 9.20- no one payin $.80/dozen

Yet folks like " yes they are down 92% "

JFC

 

[efil4]

Unless this is just an act and a grift, which is also possible. But the downside risk is very high right now, imo.

whats the grift tho? only thing i can come up with is crypto. But in order to move to crypto, he would have to erode the entire market and its function. That would be a calamity.

So what else could it be? more wealth accumulation?

 

[efil4]

i just bought my child a car not because she was ready, but because if we waited til i originally planned ( age 17 ) - i would have spent way more than i did now and who knows what would be available at what price.

this is a !@#!#!@# mess. And we are only 3 months into 4 yr term.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

whats the grift tho? only thing i can come up with is crypto. But in order to move to crypto, he would have to erode the entire market and its function. That would be a calamity.

So what else could it be? more wealth accumulation?

Maybe depress assets and have his friends scoop them up on the cheap, and then stop doing the most crazy stuff, and let the market return to normal? IDK, just spit balling here. I always assume some sort of grift with Trump... but he could just be stupid.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[longtime lurker]

I'm starting to think i shouldn't have gotten back in the market... I think it's going to get bad. I'm not pulling out again, I saved myself a 20% shave, so I'll be happy with that... but I think there's a really good chance for another 20-30% drop and then a very long, slow recovery.

Unless this is just an act and a grift, which is also possible. But the downside risk is very high right now, imo.

I’m staying out..this foolish talk about firing Powell and then filling the job with a yes puppet will tank the market even more and I think that Powell’s contract runs till ‘26.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

I’m staying out..this foolish talk about firing Powell and then filling the job with a yes puppet will tank the market even more and I think that Powell’s contract runs till ‘26.

The problem is if the dollar gets devalued and inflation ramps up, you do not want to be holding a lot of cash.

 

[longtime lurker]

The problem is if the dollar gets devalued and inflation ramps up, you do not want to be holding a lot of cash.

I wish that I knew more about safe places to put it right now.