The trade and economy mega-thread (3 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[efil4]

The damage is already done. Who would trust the US now?

No one. It's why the bond market is showing signs of problems.

It will take a while to rebuild our reputation, and even then there will be trepidation by others for fear the next MAGA gets elected and restarts this same bs.

 

[superchuck500]

And in case you missed ot, this happened yesterday

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/21/trump-tariffs-walmart-home-depot-lowes-target.html

Trump: Tariffs on the whole world!!
rabble rabble rabble rabble

Treasury Sec: Yeah, those tariffs are spooking the bond market and things are going to be bad.

Trump: Okay, no tariffs on the world for now. But huge HUGE tariffs on China!!

Retailers: Yeah, those China tariffs are going to sink us and cause a recession.

Trump: Okay, so the China tariff thing is off for the most part.


What a forking joke. Can people just start admitting that Trump doesn't know what the hell he's talking about. It's absolutely the worst way to conduct policy.

 

[bird]

Trump: Tariffs on the whole world!!
rabble rabble rabble rabble

Treasury Sec: Yeah, those tariffs are spooking the bond market and things are going to be bad.

Trump: Okay, no tariffs on the world for now. But huge HUGE tariffs on China!!

Retailers: Yeah, those China tariffs are going to sink us and cause a recession.

Trump: Okay, so the China tariff thing is off for the most part.


What a forking joke. Can people just start admitting that Trump doesn't know what the hell he's talking about. It's absolutely the worst way to conduct policy.

Most of MAGA can’t or won’t admit it because it isn’t about rationality. It is about owning the libs or validating their hatred or Christian Nationalism or some other blather. They don’t care about policy until it directly and significantly impacts them.

 

[UriUT]

Trump: Tariffs on the whole world!!
rabble rabble rabble rabble

Treasury Sec: Yeah, those tariffs are spooking the bond market and things are going to be bad.

Trump: Okay, no tariffs on the world for now. But huge HUGE tariffs on China!!

Retailers: Yeah, those China tariffs are going to sink us and cause a recession.

Trump: Okay, so the China tariff thing is off for the most part.


What a forking joke. Can people just start admitting that Trump doesn't know what the hell he's talking about. It's absolutely the worst way to conduct policy.

I remember back between the primaries and the general election in 2016 at dragos where I got into a heated argument with my brother over the trade deficit with China. I told him most economists don't really have much concern about a bilateral trade deficit. I just don't know why this idiot trump resonates so much. My brother's not an idiot. He's well educated. Successful. But trump, this moron connects using the most primal...raw, uneducated reasoning that are unsupported by any evidence. Yet...we are here. I don't get it.

The kicker, all through the first term, this whole trade deficit with china never gets mentioned again. What the hell.....

 

[coldseat]

Most of MAGA can’t or won’t admit it because it isn’t about rationality. It is about owning the libs or validating their hatred or Christian Nationalism or a desire and delight of fascist and illegal immigration policy or some other blather. They don’t care about legal policy consistent with the constitution until it directly and significantly impacts them.

Added some things.

 

[superchuck500]

I remember back between the primaries and the general election in 2016 at dragos where I got into a heated argument with my brother over the trade deficit with China. I told him most economists don't really have much concern about a bilateral trade deficit. I just don't know why this idiot trump resonates so much. My brother's not an idiot. He's well educated. Successful. But trump, this moron connects using the most primal...raw, uneducated reasoning that are unsupported by any evidence. Yet...we are here. I don't get it.

The kicker, all through the first term, this whole trade deficit with china never gets mentioned again. What the hell.....

I have a trade deficit with Walgreen's - but it's fine, we're both happy with it.

 

[UriUT]

I have a trade deficit with Walgreen's - but it's fine, we're both happy with it.

Ahhhhhhh!!!!!! How is this so difficult!!

 

[UriUT]

Once we lose our reserve currency status...this 'exorbitant privilege', we are so screwed. China is hell bent on innovations and we are cutting funds out of research. Stanford receives billions from foreign grants for research annually. We lose this and capital flows out.

I'm so sick of these people who receives government aid to support them but are pissed that someone they prejudiced also get help. So tired of this stupidity.

 

[bird]

Added some things.

Works for me!

 

[TampaJoe]

I remember back between the primaries and the general election in 2016 at dragos where I got into a heated argument with my brother over the trade deficit with China. I told him most economists don't really have much concern about a bilateral trade deficit. I just don't know why this idiot trump resonates so much. My brother's not an idiot. He's well educated. Successful. But trump, this moron connects using the most primal...raw, uneducated reasoning that are unsupported by any evidence. Yet...we are here. I don't get it.

The kicker, all through the first term, this whole trade deficit with china never gets mentioned again. What the hell.....

Doesn’t it depend somewhat on your relationship with the other party. Are they friend or foe? Are they a competitor? Will you suffer and be vulnerable if your relationship with that other party goes to hell?

For me this is a national security issue. We should not depend on someone who has adversarial ambitions for mission critical materials and supplies. We saw this during Covid didn’t we.

We depend waaay too much on the Chinese and they aren’t our friends. They may not be enemies but they are certainly competitors. And they arent friendly nor do they play fair. The smart long term strategy would be to lessen our dependence on them. I would rather deal with friends.

 

[Dragon]

Doesn’t it depend somewhat on your relationship with the other party. Are they friend or foe? Are they a competitor? Will you suffer and be vulnerable if your relationship with that other party goes to hell?

For me this is a national security issue. We should not depend on someone who has adversarial ambitions for mission critical materials and supplies. We saw this during Covid didn’t we.

We depend waaay too much on the Chinese and they aren’t our friends. They may not be enemies but they are certainly competitors. And they arent friendly nor do they play fair. The smart long term strategy would be to lessen our dependence on them. I would rather deal with friends.

The real problem is that Trump is alienating the U.S.’s oldest and most trusted allies. His approach is all about “what’s in it for me,” and he cancels trade agreements—sometimes ones he negotiated himself—on a whim.

He’s made it clear that striking a deal with the U.S. under his leadership is risky, because the terms are unreliable and often come with unreasonable demands. Just look at how he treated Canada—a long-standing partner—and Ukraine, which was pressured for political favors and exploitation of their rare earth minerals in exchange for military aid. Now that he got that rare earth minerals deal signed he has lost all interest in brokering peace.

What’s even more concerning is that Trump seems to expect personal payback from these agreements, much like the resort deal he secured in connection with his latest “trade agreement.” That’s not diplomacy—that’s self-dealing. And it erodes America’s credibility on the world stage.

 

[TampaJoe]

The real problem is that Trump is alienating the U.S.’s oldest and most trusted allies. His approach is all about “what’s in it for me,” and he cancels trade agreements—sometimes ones he negotiated himself—on a whim.

He’s made it clear that striking a deal with the U.S. under his leadership is risky, because the terms are unreliable and often come with unreasonable demands. Just look at how he treated Canada—a long-standing partner—and Ukraine, which was pressured for political favors and exploitation of their rare earth minerals in exchange for military aid. Now that he got that rare earth minerals deal signed he has lost all interest in brokering peace.

What’s even more concerning is that Trump seems to expect personal payback from these agreements, much like the resort deal he secured in connection with his latest “trade agreement.” That’s not diplomacy—that’s self-dealing. And it erodes America’s credibility on the world stage.

I agree that Trump and Trump’s negotiating style is a problem. But it isn’t the long term problem in my view. Our dependence on an adversarial country that steals our IP and who seeks world dominance is a greater concern to me.

As for conflicts of interest and self dealing, as I have said before, I support a single ethical standard applied to everyone across party lines and enforced without fear or favor. Nobody seems interested in that. They would rather have the partisan brawls.

So the merry go round keeps spinning.

 

[Dragon]

I agree that Trump and Trump’s negotiating style is a problem. But it isn’t the long term problem in my view. Our dependence on an adversarial country that steals our IP and who seeks world dominance is a greater concern to me.

As for conflicts of interest and self dealing, as I have said before, I support a single ethical standard applied to everyone across party lines and enforced without fear or favor. Nobody seems interested in that. They would rather have the partisan brawls.

So the merry go round keeps spinning.

Do you have any examples of any other presidents negotiating private business while negotiating trade deals? Trump and his family has done it multiple times. Remember all those chinese trademarks his daughter got last time he negotiated with China?

• During his presidency, China granted Trump and his companies 41 trademarks, many of which had been previously denied.
• These included trademarks for hotels, golf courses, and other businesses.
• The approvals came after Trump reversed a decision against Chinese telecom company ZTE, raising concerns about a quid pro quo.

And this one from last month

In March 2025, the Trump Organization announced plans for multi-billion-dollar investments in Vietnam, including golf courses, hotels, and real estate developments. The first project, a $1.5 billion development near Hanoi, is set to break ground in May and includes three golf courses and a residential complex. A second project near Ho Chi Minh City is also under consideration.

These announcements coincided with the Trump administration's scheduled decision on April 2 regarding "reciprocal tariffs" on countries with significant trade imbalances with the U.S., including Vietnam. To mitigate potential tariffs, Vietnam pledged to increase imports from the U.S., reduce duties and non-tariff barriers, and allowed Elon Musk's Starlink to offer satellite internet services in the country.

 

[efil4]

We depend waaay too much on the Chinese and they aren’t our friends. They may not be enemies but they are certainly competitors. And they arent friendly nor do they play fair. The smart long term strategy would be to lessen our dependence on them. I would rather deal with friends.

The Russians? The El Salvadorians? What friends exactly?

you are posting about "dealing with friends" when we are alienating every single one. How does that work exactly?

Trade deficits, as has been pointed out numerous times on this thread, are not bad things. There is a co-existence that happens.

Im not opposed to "lessen our dependence" on China in a long term strategy, but we have apparently a President who said forget long term, this is happening now. In one fell swoop, with absolute disregard for the consequences. Many of which you havent even felt yet, but are to come.

You dont quit your job to take another if you havent secured the other job, do you?

We dont have the infrastructure, the workforce...not even a PLAN on how to onshore mfg for anything that China produces.

So in order to attain independence from China, you are willing to take a back seat on the global economy to others? Because thats precisely what is happening.

 

[superchuck500]

Doesn’t it depend somewhat on your relationship with the other party. Are they friend or foe? Are they a competitor? Will you suffer and be vulnerable if your relationship with that other party goes to hell?

For me this is a national security issue. We should not depend on someone who has adversarial ambitions for mission critical materials and supplies. We saw this during Covid didn’t we.

We depend waaay too much on the Chinese and they aren’t our friends. They may not be enemies but they are certainly competitors. And they arent friendly nor do they play fair. The smart long term strategy would be to lessen our dependence on them. I would rather deal with friends.

I can see the appeal of this view - but I think it is substantially overly simplistic. If the USA "depends" on China to the extent that it is a national security issue, then the reverse is certainly true: China depends on the USA to the extent that it is a national security issue for China. It is not uncommon in the international relations analysis to see authors contend that the US is more important to China than China is to the US. I think Trump actually believes this to be true, which is why he thought he had leverage in China in a trade war.

I actually think it's a bit overstated. A sudden decoupling would not only cripple both economies but also the global economy - but that isn't the same thing as a genuine national security interest.

 

[efil4]

But it isn’t the long term problem in my view. Our dependence on an adversarial country that steals our IP and who seeks world dominance is a greater concern to me.

so how do you square the tariff attacks on every single trading partner, including long-standing allies, and then say " not a long term problem"?

Can you explain exactly how his "style" is not a long term problem in your view?

 

[TampaJoe]

Do you have any examples of any other presidents negotiating private business while negotiating trade deals? Trump and his family has done it multiple times. Remember all those chinese trademarks his daughter got last time he negotiated with China?

• During his presidency, China granted Trump and his companies 41 trademarks, many of which had been previously denied.
• These included trademarks for hotels, golf courses, and other businesses.
• The approvals came after Trump reversed a decision against Chinese telecom company ZTE, raising concerns about a quid pro quo.

And this one from last month

In March 2025, the Trump Organization announced plans for multi-billion-dollar investments in Vietnam, including golf courses, hotels, and real estate developments. The first project, a $1.5 billion development near Hanoi, is set to break ground in May and includes three golf courses and a residential complex. A second project near Ho Chi Minh City is also under consideration.

These announcements coincided with the Trump administration's scheduled decision on April 2 regarding "reciprocal tariffs" on countries with significant trade imbalances with the U.S., including Vietnam. To mitigate potential tariffs, Vietnam pledged to increase imports from the U.S., reduce duties and non-tariff barriers, and allowed Elon Musk's Starlink to offer satellite internet services in the country.

You don’t want to hear them. We have elected officials who enter public service as middle income public servants and accumulate million dollar estates on public servant salaries. Is that a big enough red flag for you? The whole Biden family mess where millions of dollars laundered thru 20 shell companies. The Trump foundation. The Clinton foundation. Millions of dollars from domestic and foreign interest changing hands. It reeks of self dealing to anyone who has ever dealt with conflicts of interest. It is an ethical cesspool.

So if you want to clean it all up. I’m all for it. How far are you prepared to go? Cause if you only want to apply your high moral standards to someone you don’t agree with politically, you are part of the problem.

 

[Dragon]

You don’t want to hear them. We have elected officials who enter public service as middle income public servants and accumulate million dollar estates on public servant salaries. Is that a big enough red flag for you? The whole Biden family mess where millions of dollars laundered thru 20 shell companies. The Trump foundation. The Clinton foundation. Millions of dollars from domestic and foreign interest changing hands. It reeks of self dealing to anyone who has ever dealt with conflicts of interest. It is an ethical cesspool.

So if you want to clean it all up. I’m all for it. How far are you prepared to go? Cause if you only want to apply your high moral standards to someone you don’t agree with politically, you are part of the problem.

They do book deals and speeches. Which is what Bidens did and you can find the link in a previous thread. And presidential libraries are usually supported by donors but that is not personal wealth or even a personal company. The generic "They" got wealthy answer won't cut it. I got you several very specific instances.

Do you have ANY examples of any other president who makes personal deals that favor their OWN companies or themselfes WHILE negotiating trade agreements on behalf of the US ?