The trade and economy mega-thread (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[Saintamaniac]

he just sealed his re-election fate imo.

You should never ever underestimate the ability of trump supporters and defenders to cling to the stupid. The religious right pretty much covered their eyes and ears and ignored all the tenants of the religion that they supposedly hold so dearly to justify continued support for stupid. People being hurt by the policies put forth by this administration continue to cling to stupid as they are losing everything for which they have worked. So-called fiscal conservatives have pretty much forgotten what it means to be a fiscal conservative all in the name of continued support for the stupid. Nah, no. There is powerful stupidity afoot.

 

[Zardnok]

I don't understand how you say capitalism does not encourage competition. The amount of "stuff" the average American consumes today far outstrips what we were consuming just a generation ago. And presumably, (at least for middle class earners) we are consuming all of that with roughly the same income. Is that not the result of competition?

If anything, the problems people are complaining are the results of favoring consumption, and by extension - the consumer - above all else.

You are ignoring the non-monetary costs associated with those goods which is what many are talking about. Manufacturing moving overseas costs Americans jobs and the economic impact of those dollars being spent here in America. When you add those opportunity costs we are on the losing side.

Consumerism is indeed a problem, but what is the solution for it? American's love buying things, even when they can't afford them. The cheaper stuff is, the more we can buy.

 

[The moose]

Oh crap all the tricks are out of the bag a couple weeks into this and the market dropped again. You would figure the cuts in interest rates would do something.

No more tricks left. We are now in just hold the heck on mode.

Good luck all!

 

[efil4]

More of it just another example of people trying to paint Trump as an idiot and they come off looking like one.

This aged well ....lolol

(In light of the presser that will take place today)

 

[The moose]

Well this would be a fun thread the bring back to life.

Considering this is all a mess at least we figured out we can manufacture masks if they go up by 2000%

 

[JimEverett]

This aged well ....lolol

(In light of the presser that will take place today)

Can you be more specific? How has it not aged well?

 

[Zombiewoof]

Can you be more specific? How has it not aged well?

Even if it hasn't aged well -- and that has yet to be established since no context was given -- gloating or "rubbing someone's noses in it" is confrontational and could lead to moderator action. We will see if some context is provided.

 

[efil4]

Can you be more specific? How has it not aged well?

we are in a worse economic position today. In part, because we engaged in a trade war with China for 8 months prior to COVID19 and never "shoring up" domestic supply. Yet, everyone else is the "idiot". ( your words )

As stated early and often in this thread, it wasnt in his best interest to engage in a trade war with China. Anything can happen in that time period to tip the balance.

And it did. COVID19 came along.

And now we are back to square 0, operating from a distinct disadvantage due to the Pandemic, and he is ratcheting up his rhetoric on China once again. Just 2-3 months after publicly proclaiming President Xi is a great leader and believes everything China has to say regarding coronavirus numbers.

 

[efil4]

Even if it hasn't aged well -- and that has yet to be established since no context was given -- gloating or "rubbing someone's noses in it" is confrontational and could lead to moderator action. We will see if some context is provided.

rubbing someones nose in calling doubters "idiots" - im pointing out how quickly things can pivot when POTUS decides to take on actions without really thinking thru the ramifications.

As i stated above, we are back to square 0, but now with a depressed economic outlook for the remainder of 2020, still dealing with the pandemic, have no real "plan" to ween off China supply, but will get a presser this evening that may include sanctions vs China.

I dont think you can label the doubters idiots. Hence, the "lol".

If that elicits moderator action, so be it. Not sure how, based on the above, but then im not sure how he was able to label those folks "idiots".

 

[JimEverett]

we are in a worse economic position today. In part, because we engaged in a trade war with China for 8 months prior to COVID19 and never "shoring up" domestic supply. Yet, everyone else is the "idiot". ( your words )

As stated early and often in this thread, it wasnt in his best interest to engage in a trade war with China. Anything can happen in that time period to tip the balance.

And it did. COVID19 came along.

And now we are back to square 0, operating from a distinct disadvantage due to the Pandemic, and he is ratcheting up his rhetoric on China once again. Just 2-3 months after publicly proclaiming President Xi is a great leader and believes everything China has to say regarding coronavirus numbers.

So it is okay to completely ignore the context of what I was talking about all in an effort to get a "gotcha" quote - ridiculous.
My quote you posted was specifically about who is paying for Chinese tariffs and had to do with the fact that the depreciation of Chinese currency was absorbing most, if not all, the cost of the tariffs and that people focused on schooling us as to how wrong Trump was were looking rather foolish. The Chinese Central Bank just this week set its yuan reference rate at the lowest level since the start of the Great Recession, so I think my post has aged rather well.

 

[efil4]

So it is okay to completely ignore the context of what I was talking about all in an effort to get a "gotcha" quote - ridiculous.
My quote you posted was specifically about who is paying for Chinese tariffs and had to do with the fact that the depreciation of Chinese currency was absorbing most, if not all, the cost of the tariffs and that people focused on schooling us as to how wrong Trump was were looking rather foolish. The Chinese Central Bank just this week set its yuan reference rate at the lowest level since the start of the Great Recession, so I think my post has aged rather well.

my point wasnt to single out and give you a "gotcha "moment, hence the LOL.

It was to, on a macro level, show how foolish this whole trade war was/is and how it exacerbated the current economic marketplace in the first place.

I understood your reference then and now. But depreciating the yuan was what China did to balance....just like the Fed pumping several trillion into the market. Not to say that had we had NO trade war, the Fed wouldnt have acted similarly, but there is no mistaking that the perceived trade war, the faux phase 1 agreement, subsequent lauding of President Xi, has come back around to this very point.

Im not seeing anything regarding the CCB and lowered reference rate...can you link? i see it at 7.12 yet 9 months ago it was below 7 *( 6.985 or so )

He keeps backing us into a corner. Watch the presser. If he follows thru with HK, China will respond. Then Trump, then China....we arent even close to operating at 100%, but this is what he focuses on, at this time. His timing is ill-advised at best, but i think at this point he understands his chances at re-election are slim to none, and we are going to see more head-scratching moves by this administration as we get into summer/early fall.

 

[JimEverett]

Im not seeing anything regarding the CCB and lowered reference rate...can you link? i see it at 7.12 yet 9 months ago it was below 7 *( 6.985 or so )

China’s Offshore Yuan Slides to Brink of Record Amid Tension

China’s offshore yuan tested the weakest level on record on speculation the government would be willing to permit a weaker currency in response to fresh punitive measures from the U.S.

www.bloomberg.com

Also, thanks for the explanation. Sometimes it is difficult to read intent on a message board.

 

[efil4]

4 months before election and Navarro announces trade deal with China is dead.

Says the reasoning is that China did not disclose covid outbreak until after January 15 phase 1 signing. Said soon as they got "wheels up" they heard about.

Huh... Yet it's widely known that US intelligence had informed the Administration before 15th.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[superchuck500]

 

[wardorican]

Yup, and I expect it to drop again. At least for a bit.

 

[The moose]

Yep that is a reflection of the stimulus not the actual economy.

This is kinda like what the stock buy backs did for the market because of the tax cut. If you dig just a bit deeper you get that is was funded by your Uncle

 

[JimEverett]

Except government transfers were down $1.2T from Q2 while the economy gained roughly $1.1T in that time.

Still, Private industry wages are about $250B off where they were in Q1, while overall wages are about $100B off where they were in Q1.
But more to the point about the stimulus: Private industry wages rose about $421B from Q2 while overall income declined $540B. That means private employment is bouncing back and that the stimulus' impact on this quarter is far far less than in Q2.