The trade and economy mega-thread (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[zztop]

This will be in the running for the "Dumbest Thing He Did" Award! He's going to open up a trade war with Mexico and Canada when he is the father of the trade deal with Mexico and Canada (USMCA).

I am certain that it will face some heavy competition as time goes by.

I've read he wants to eliminate income tax and replace it with tariffs on imports.
I recall the first "trade war" he started, the Gov't had to bail out farmers to the tune of billions. I think soybean farmers got hit especially hard.

 

[bird]

I've read he wants to eliminate income tax and replace it with tariffs on imports.
I recall the first "trade war" he started, the Gov't had to bail out farmers to the tune of billions. I think soybean farmers got hit especially hard.

Ain’t gonna happen.

Total income tax revenue was $2.18 Trillion for fiscal 2023. Total imports for fiscal 2023 were $3.83 Trillion. 25% tariff on all imports would be $958 Billion. Mix in the impact of tariffs on US exports and you would get, imo, a major collapse of the U.S. economy resulting in worldwide recession or depression.

Of course, since Trump is stupid he may well try to pull that off.

 

[zztop]

Of course, since Trump is stupid he may well try to pull that off.

I agree with you lol

 

[superchuck500]

The Fed held rates steady today . . . Trump big mad, now claiming Powell is creating inflation. Trump is very much going to do all he can to try to make the Fed chair do his bidding.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/29/fed-meeting-live-updates-traders-await-fed-chair-powells-comments.html

 

[bird]

The Fed held rates steady today . . . Trump big mad, now claiming Powell is creating inflation. Trump is very much going to do all he can to try to make the Fed chair do his bidding.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/29/fed-meeting-live-updates-traders-await-fed-chair-powells-comments.html

If the Fed drops rates then credit becomes cheaper. The psychological response by producers, wholesalers and retailers would be to raise prices. That is inflation. Consumers would possibly get lower introductory rates on credit cards which would drive debt up increasing the likelihood of defaults if wages do not increase. The same would potentially apply to mortgages.