The trade and economy mega-thread (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[efil4]

Canada may be in a strong position to take over part of the U.S.-Japan LNG deal set to begin in 2030. With several LNG terminals on Canada’s west coast (like LNG Canada and Cedar LNG) expected to be operational by then, Canada could reroute natural gas exports away from the U.S. and directly to Asian markets, including Japan.

This becomes especially relevant if the U.S. (under a future Trump admin or similar) tries to use LNG as political leverage. Japan might prefer Canadian LNG to avoid being caught in tariff wars or energy blackmail. Canada offers shorter shipping routes, political stability, and cleaner production — all strong advantages.

However, Canada’s overall export volume will still lag behind the U.S., and expanding capacity takes time due to regulatory and infrastructure hurdles. Still, Japan has options, and Canada could be a serious one if geopolitical risks with the U.S. escalate before the 2030 contract is finalized.

and thats just ONE facet.

Hence the non-binding Heads of Agreement signed- not a contract.

im not sure how one thinks that Japan sat down at the table and got coerced into an LNG after 3 months.

Deals like the one described are massively intricate, with exponential "what ifs" that all have to be fleshed out before anything gets agreed to ( binding contractual agreement )

But, then again, Trump isnt directing his marketing to the brightest bulbs.

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

your link will not open- as i stated announced late may/early June. This was not part of the trade agreement.

does it state that JERA signed an HOA ( Heads of Agreement aka Letter of Intent ) which is non-binding?

So until 2027 delivery from Sempra Phase 2 in Lake Charles ( which hasnt started construction yet ), or construction of the Alaska LNG pipeline ( also not constructed yet til 2030 ) ill put this in the "might happen" column.

Not interested in what MIGHT happen, im interested is what IS happening and as of today, its simply non-binding agreements to purchase future LNG production IF those facilities come on-line.



JERA Co. Inc. has recently signed multiple non-binding heads of agreement (HOAs) for the sale and purchase of LNG, primarily with US companies. These deals aim to secure and diversify JERA's LNG supply sources, particularly from the US.

Specific agreements include:

• Sempra Infrastructure:
  .
  JERA signed an HOA with Sempra Infrastructure for a 20-year sale and purchase agreement for LNG, with a specific volume of 1.5 million tonnes per annum. This agreement is part of Sempra's efforts to develop, build, and operate modern energy infrastructure, including LNG facilities.
  
  
• Woodside Energy:
  .
  JERA signed an HOA with Woodside Energy for winter LNG supplies starting from 2027. This agreement involves the sale and purchase of LNG cargoes from Woodside's LNG portfolio, with a focus on securing supply for Japan's high-demand winter season.
  
  
• Cheniere Energy:
  .
  JERA also signed an HOA with Cheniere Energy for up to 1 million tonnes per annum of LNG from their Corpus Christi and Sabine Pass facilities

If Lake Charles gets hit with another major hurricane that causes severe flooding and wind damage like in 2021, then Sempra Phase 2 will not been complete when expected, and that's only if they don't scrap the plan altogether.

Sorry, I meant to say when Lake Charles gets hit with another major hurricane. The way things are trending for my father, I've got a bad feeling that this will be the year that he loses his house to a hurricane. I'm hoping that saying that does a reverse jinx.

 

[efil4]

The amount of fantasy peddled by this administration is STAGGERING

Even the CNBC host, at the very end of interview is like " umm...okay" lolol

Lutnick is literally saying if Trump decides to build a pharma plant for $15B, Japan will pay for it- All of it to be built and only require 10% of the profit in return.

Thats a loan with 10% interest LOLOLOL

And there are NO DETAILS to length of time they get 10%, who says what, etc etc but according to Lutnick, if Japan says no to a deal, BOOM, tariff skyrockets.

 

[bird]

The amount of fantasy peddled by this administration is STAGGERING

Even the CNBC host, at the very end of interview is like " umm...okay" lolol

Lutnick is literally saying if Trump decides to build a pharma plant for $15B, Japan will pay for it- All of it to be built and only require 10% of the profit in return.

Thats a loan with 10% interest LOLOLOL

And there are NO DETAILS to length of time they get 10%, who says what, etc etc but according to Lutnick, if Japan says no to a deal, BOOM, tariff skyrockets.

This is Lutnick literally lying.

 

[efil4]

This is Lutnick literally lying.

Trump says "hold my beer, Lutnick"

 

[bird]

The amount of fantasy peddled by this administration is STAGGERING

Even the CNBC host, at the very end of interview is like " umm...okay" lolol

Lutnick is literally saying if Trump decides to build a pharma plant for $15B, Japan will pay for it- All of it to be built and only require 10% of the profit in return.

Thats a loan with 10% interest LOLOLOL

And there are NO DETAILS to length of time they get 10%, who says what, etc etc but according to Lutnick, if Japan says no to a deal, BOOM, tariff skyrockets.

If I read that correctly, it says that Japan gives 90% of the profit to the Orange Orangutan. That ain’t happening.

 

[MT15]

If I read that correctly, it says that Japan gives 90% of the profit to the Orange Orangutan. That ain’t happening.

Who will stop it? This is how Putin operates, isn’t it?

 

[efil4]

If I read that correctly, it says that Japan gives 90% of the profit to the Orange Orangutan. That ain’t happening.

Japan isnt funding one single project in the US, FOR the US, without compensation of any kind.

Never has, never will.

A loan? sure. 10% interest sounds about right.

These comments were directed to his core supporters who buy used cars for $1500 cash because they havent seen their credit score above 600 since they were born. The ones who dont know a lick about finance, geopolitics and international monetary policy.

financial dummies ( for short )

 

[efil4]

This is why the Fed, Wall St and international leaders simply ignore this fool.

 

[wardorican]

amazing.

Now, hear me out here. It's like, maybe... just maybe these people are full of crap and have no idea what they're doing

 

[efil4]

Now, hear me out here. It's like, maybe... just maybe these people are full of crap and have no idea what they're doing

And thats kinda ok when things are humming along.

Its when crisis hits...thats when things will go off the rails. We havent had a crisis.

Yet.

 

[MT15]

And thats kinda ok when things are humming along.

Its when crisis hits...thats when things will go off the rails. We havent had a crisis.

Yet.

Oh, how well I remember thinking late in the fall of 2019, that we had seemingly skated through his term without any horrible crisis that would require him to be more than the moron that he is.

And then Covid hit……

 

[MT15]

There is evidently one lone Democratic commissioner at the FCC. She dissented from the Paramount merger by calling out the corrupt nature of it. It clearly violates the First Amendment. Conservatives are largely silent about all these First Amendment violations from Trump. I’m beginning to think they are silent because they believe there will never be another democratic administration to pull this shirt against them.

That’s an unsettling thought that I don’t like having. What else are we to think though? They see the free speech violations as well as we do. They have forever ceded their ability to claim they support free speech. Bolding except for links, is mine.

“The FCC’s only remaining Democratic commissioner, Anna Gomez, dissented, writing that, “In an unprecedented move, this once-independent FCC used its vast power to pressure Paramount to broker a private legal settlement and further erode press freedom … Even more alarming, it is now imposing never-before-seen controls over newsroom decisions and editorial judgment, in direct violation of the First Amendment and the law.” Still, she gave Carr credit for calling a vote on the matter, rather than rubber-stamping the merger through one of the agency’s bureaus, like it did for the Verizon-Frontier merger, which similarly required an end to DEI programs.

Gomez warns that this agreement is just the canary in the coal mine. “The Paramount payout and this reckless approval have emboldened those who believe the government can—and should—abuse its power to extract financial and ideological concessions, demand favored treatment, and secure positive media coverage,” she writes. “It is a dark chapter in a long and growing record of abuse that threatens press freedom in this country. But such violations endure only when institutions choose capitulation over courage. It is time for companies, journalists, and citizens alike to stand up and speak out, because unchecked and unquestioned power has no rightful place in America.””

 

[efil4]

Japan isnt funding one single project in the US, FOR the US, without compensation of any kind.

Never has, never will.

A loan? sure. 10% interest sounds about right.

These comments were directed to his core supporters who buy used cars for $1500 cash because they havent seen their credit score above 600 since they were born. The ones who dont know a lick about finance, geopolitics and international monetary policy.

financial dummies ( for short )

As I said, Japan ain't funding nothing. Its a complete fabrication and fantasy to gin up his core.

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

There is evidently one lone Democratic commissioner at the FCC. She dissented from the Paramount merger by calling out the corrupt nature of it. It clearly violates the First Amendment. Conservatives are largely silent about all these First Amendment violations from Trump. I’m beginning to think they are silent because they believe there will never be another democratic administration to pull this shirt against them.

That’s an unsettling thought that I don’t like having. What else are we to think though? They see the free speech violations as well as we do. They have forever ceded their ability to claim they support free speech. Bolding except for links, is mine.

“The FCC’s only remaining Democratic commissioner, Anna Gomez, dissented, writing that, “In an unprecedented move, this once-independent FCC used its vast power to pressure Paramount to broker a private legal settlement and further erode press freedom … Even more alarming, it is now imposing never-before-seen controls over newsroom decisions and editorial judgment, in direct violation of the First Amendment and the law.” Still, she gave Carr credit for calling a vote on the matter, rather than rubber-stamping the merger through one of the agency’s bureaus, like it did for the Verizon-Frontier merger, which similarly required an end to DEI programs.

Gomez warns that this agreement is just the canary in the coal mine. “The Paramount payout and this reckless approval have emboldened those who believe the government can—and should—abuse its power to extract financial and ideological concessions, demand favored treatment, and secure positive media coverage,” she writes. “It is a dark chapter in a long and growing record of abuse that threatens press freedom in this country. But such violations endure only when institutions choose capitulation over courage. It is time for companies, journalists, and citizens alike to stand up and speak out, because unchecked and unquestioned power has no rightful place in America.””

I think they clearly believe nothing can stop them from fully toppling the government and oppressing us. Keep in mind, that's only what they think. Their hubris will be their downfall.

They also honestly think Trump is brilliant and that the majority of us worship him like those in his cult do. That is obviously false.

They were high fiving themselves and taking victory laps in private on Jan 5th, 2021.

I see clear signs that the majority of us will fight them in the streets or support those who do, if it comes to that. I see clear signs that if forced to choose between backing Trump or backing the Constitution and protecting us, that the majority of active and retired military personnel will choose the Constitution and us.

Notice how quiet Trump has been about Liz Cheney during his retribution tour? I think that's because he's afraid of Dick. He should be, because Dick and his cohorts would not let Trump usurp our government without a fight, and they fight dirty and effectively. It wouldn't be altruism for Dick and his cohorts, it would be preservation of power for them.

They think they've won, because they don't realize that a lot of us are in John Paul Jones mode.

 

[zztop]

Here's a puzzling question: Why are stocks at record highs despite looming tariffs?

 

[efil4]

Here's a puzzling question: Why are stocks at record highs despite looming tariffs?

Its really not.(puzzling) The market, in general, is ignoring Trump's bluster.

They fell for it April 2. Since then, 3 separate deadline pushbacks.

So until he decides to stand firm on a date and rate, market is ignoring him and moving on.

Now we approach the Aug deadline, which supposedly is THE deadline. No more pushbacks. ( we'll unless countries are actively seeking deal per Bessent )

So if more deadline pushbacks, more ignoring.

 

[cuddlemonkey]

Its really not.(puzzling) The market, in general, is ignoring Trump's bluster.

They fell for it April 2. Since then, 3 separate deadline pushbacks.

So until he decides to stand firm on a date and rate, market is ignoring him and moving on.

Now we approach the Aug deadline, which supposedly is THE deadline. No more pushbacks. ( we'll unless countries are actively seeking deal per Bessent )

So if more deadline pushbacks, more ignoring.

The market loves TACOs.