SHOULD Biden run for a 2nd term? (1 Viewer)

[SteveSBrickNJ]

Biden has lost support from many people who voted for him in the past.
He is getting up there in age.
Here are a couple of sites I'd like to share...
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Octogenarian Biden begins new year facing age-old question on 2024 race

In the coming months, Biden faces a simple question: will he seek a second term at the end of which he would be 86?

www.theguardian.com

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Biden 2024? Most Democrats say no thank you: AP-NORC poll

A majority of Democrats now think one term is plenty for President Joe Biden, despite his insistence that he plans to seek reelection in 2024. While Biden has trumpeted his legislative victories and ability to govern, the poll suggests relatively few U.S. adults give him high marks on either...

news.yahoo.com

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WHAT DO ANY OF YOU THINK?
IS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY BEST SERVED BY HAVING PRESIDENT BIDEN RUN FOR ANOTHER TERM OR WOULD A DIFFERENT CANDIDATE BE BETTER?

 

[coldseat]

Warning signs all over

If Trump wins, more voters foresee better finances, staying out of war — CBS News poll

Biden trails Trump in potential rematch in polling a year out from 2024 presidential election.

www.cbsnews.com

None of those polls make any forking sense. Americans need to get their heads out of their arses. It's like every one of those percentages is the exact opposite of what is should be. I'm not even saying that as a supporter of Biden, but just based of factual information. People in this country are forking clueless and ignorant as fork. Electing Trump is going to increase peace and stability in the world??? What in the actual hell are the people that answered this poll smoking, because it took them to a whole other dimension and reality that we don't live in.

 

[bdb13]

None of those polls make any forking sense. Americans need to get their heads out of their arses. It's like every one of those percentages is the exact opposite of what is should be. I'm not even saying that as a supporter of Biden, but just based of factual information. People in this country are forking clueless and ignorant as fork. Electing Trump is going to increase peace and stability in the world??? What in the actual hell are the people that answered this poll smoking, because its took them to a whole other dimension and reality that we don't live in.

Most everyone lives in an echo chamber imo and people believe that there wouldn't be a war in Ukraine or in Gaza/Israel right now if Trump were in office because Trump's a boss like that and everyone is scared to fork with him.

Everything is black and white and devoid of critical analysis and because nothing major broke out during Trump's 4 years they think it all correlates.

At least that's my read on it. I work with a black guy who says he didn't like Trump when he was president but he's voting for him now because everything so bad under Biden.. work with another guy who doesn't like either one but says he would never vote for Biden for sure because of how old and out of it he is and how little he's doing to fix anything.

 

[DaveXA]

This seems to fit here, because it makes a case for why people feel that Biden isn’t doing a good job with the economy, even though all metrics seem to point otherwise.

Considering my cola increases have been lower than inflation, my pay has effectively gone down. People doubling salaries and big bumps in pay is just way outside the norm. And interest rates is killing any ability to move unless you sell and pay cash for a new home, which is also well outside any sense of normal. Far too many are feeling the squeeze. So it's highly dependent on your situation. A lot of people have more debt than ever, and many are not even able to service the interest on their debt. It's a big problem.

 

[coldseat]

Most everyone lives in an echo chamber imo and people believe that there wouldn't be a war in Ukraine or in Gaza/Israel right now if Trump were in office because Trump's a boss like that and everyone is scared to fork with him.

Everything is black and white and devoid of critical analysis and because nothing major broke out during Trump's 4 years they think it all correlates.

At least that's my read on it. I work with a black guy who says he didn't like Trump when he was president but he's voting for him now because everything so bad under Biden.. work with another guy who doesn't like either one but says he would never vote for Biden for sure because of how old and out of it he is and how little he's doing to fix anything.

I have a hard time believing how stupid and ignorant people in this country are. It only takes 2 brain cells to think through some of these issue and reach a rational position, but people aren't even capable of that. Yes, because Hamas wouldn't have attacked Israel because of how scared they were of Trump?

It just reinforce the feeling of how forked we are.

 

[bdb13]

Considering my cola increases have been lower than inflation, my pay has effectively gone down. People doubling salaries and big bumps in pay is just way outside the norm. And interest rates is killing any ability to move unless you sell and pay cash for a new home, which is also well outside any sense of normal. Far too many are feeling the squeeze. So it's highly dependent on your situation. A lot of people have more debt than ever, and many are not even able to service the interest on their debt. It's a big problem.

Yeah I'm currently in the process of trying to get a new job which still will not get me back to where I was at the beginning of 2021 as far as how far the money goes.

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

[Virgil]

What in the world about my calm responses would lead you to say this? I’m not the one having the hissy fit. The unwillingness to actually engage forthrightly and the propensity to throw around epithets is certainly not promising.

Could you explain your statement I bolded because it makes zero sense?

Move On is more than just a dot org.

apologies

 

[Dragon]

As I said my husband knows a LOT about polls, having worked with those for +20 years. This is his comments to this discussion

There are 2 kind of polls.

1. Those done as research for campaigns or products where the management truely want to know what the voters/ consumers want
2. Those done with marketing in mind. Where questions are asked in a suggestive way in order to get a certain answer. These are often used to market a product (and a political candidate IS a product too)

An example : If you want to get people who say that Biden is too old you would ask

* Are you worried about Biden getting up in age and maybe not be mentally sharp when facing a crisis?
A lot will anwer yes on that question just by reflex (negative answer wanted)
* Do you think that Bidens long experince gained by a lifetime will benefit him mentally when facing a crisis?
A lot will anwer yes on that question just by reflex (Postive answer wanted)

The first poll could be used by the opposing canditates campaign - the second on Bidens. Both basically ask the same question but the way the questions are ask will predispose certain answers

 

[Virgil]

As I said my husband knows a LOT about polls, having worked with those for +20 years. This is his comments to this discussion

There are 2 kind of polls.

1. Those done as research for campaigns or products where the management truely want to know what the voters/ consumers want
2. Those done with marketing in mind. Where questions are asked in a suggestive way in order to get a certain answer. These are often used to market a product (and a political candidate IS a product too)

An example : If you want to get people who say that Biden is too old you would ask

* Are you worried about Biden getting up in age and maybe not be mentally sharp when facing a crisis?
A lot will anwer yes on that question just by reflex (negative answer wanted)
* Do you think that Bidens long experince gained by a lifetime will benefit him mentally when facing a crisis?
A lot will anwer yes on that question just by reflex (Postive answer wanted)

The first poll could be used by the opposing canditates campaign - the second on Bidens. Both basically ask the same question but the way the questions are ask will predispose certain answers

What kind of poll do you call it, when the pollster only wants to know the truth?

Most credible polling firms try not to skew polls, unless they're being paid to do so. Why would they? Then we get people who analyze the polls and look at how the questions were asked, which questions were asked and more.

Using your framing of it all, There are more than two types of polls.

fyi, I was present and got to observe early on the introduction of Account Planning into American Ad Agencies. I grew up around grad students (stats and other disciplines), who attended Ivy League Universities in my hometown area. I've long followed politics. I could go on, but I'm sure given an audience with your esteemed husband, we'd end up agreeing on much more , than what we'd disagree on.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Washington is 364 days away from the next presidential election. Which means naturally, Democrats are engaging in their favourite pastime: fretting about national polls or calming each other down that the polls are not nearly as bad.

This usually ignores one fact about polling everyone seems to forget: they are not meant to predict what will happen but rather serve as a snapshot of where public opinion is at the moment.

The latest case came on Sunday when The New York Times and Siena College released its survey showing that former president Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada, the five major swing states.

Naturally, this set off alarm bells given that Mr Biden is running essentially unopposed, save for a quixotic run by Rep Dean Phillips (D-MN) and author Marianne Williamson.

Running against an incumbent president would likely kill the career of any Democrat with some semblance of promise. So for now, it looks like Democrats are stuck with the president.

Mr Biden’s polling numbers have been stubbornly low almost since August 2021, when many Americans disapproved of the way the United States exited the war in Afghanistan.

This has compounded with an economy where inflation remains stubbornly high (albeit the Federal Reserve announced last week that it would keep interest rates where they are).…..

There are also some reasons to be wary of the results from the survey. The poll showed that Mr Biden has only a one-point lead against Mr Trump among voters between the ages of 18 and 29.

Similarly, 22 per cent of Black voters in those swing states said that they would support Mr Trump. The former president indeed did grow his support among Black voters, particularly Black men, in 2020, but earning a fifth of the the Black vote would be surprising…….

Why Democrats should (and shouldn’t) worry about Biden’s low poll numbers

Yes, it’s a year out. But his polling still shows bad signs for Democrats

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Dragon]

Just a simplified version he says - The first is when you want a true picture. The second is when you want to influence oppinions.

And yes some poling firms will skew poles. There is big money in it.

 

[Virgil]

Washington is 364 days away from the next presidential election. Which means naturally, Democrats are engaging in their favourite pastime: fretting about national polls or calming each other down that the polls are not nearly as bad.

This usually ignores one fact about polling everyone seems to forget: they are not meant to predict what will happen but rather serve as a snapshot of where public opinion is at the moment.

The latest case came on Sunday when The New York Times and Siena College released its survey showing that former president Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada, the five major swing states.

Naturally, this set off alarm bells given that Mr Biden is running essentially unopposed, save for a quixotic run by Rep Dean Phillips (D-MN) and author Marianne Williamson.

Running against an incumbent president would likely kill the career of any Democrat with some semblance of promise. So for now, it looks like Democrats are stuck with the president.

Mr Biden’s polling numbers have been stubbornly low almost since August 2021, when many Americans disapproved of the way the United States exited the war in Afghanistan.

This has compounded with an economy where inflation remains stubbornly high (albeit the Federal Reserve announced last week that it would keep interest rates where they are).…..

There are also some reasons to be wary of the results from the survey. The poll showed that Mr Biden has only a one-point lead against Mr Trump among voters between the ages of 18 and 29.

Similarly, 22 per cent of Black voters in those swing states said that they would support Mr Trump. The former president indeed did grow his support among Black voters, particularly Black men, in 2020, but earning a fifth of the the Black vote would be surprising…….

Why Democrats should (and shouldn’t) worry about Biden’s low poll numbers

Yes, it’s a year out. But his polling still shows bad signs for Democrats

www.independent.co.uk

We shall see.

Hold note save

 

[J-DONK]

Washington is 364 days away from the next presidential election. Which means naturally, Democrats are engaging in their favourite pastime: fretting about national polls or calming each other down that the polls are not nearly as bad.

This usually ignores one fact about polling everyone seems to forget: they are not meant to predict what will happen but rather serve as a snapshot of where public opinion is at the moment.

The latest case came on Sunday when The New York Times and Siena College released its survey showing that former president Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada, the five major swing states.

Naturally, this set off alarm bells given that Mr Biden is running essentially unopposed, save for a quixotic run by Rep Dean Phillips (D-MN) and author Marianne Williamson.

Running against an incumbent president would likely kill the career of any Democrat with some semblance of promise. So for now, it looks like Democrats are stuck with the president.

Mr Biden’s polling numbers have been stubbornly low almost since August 2021, when many Americans disapproved of the way the United States exited the war in Afghanistan.

This has compounded with an economy where inflation remains stubbornly high (albeit the Federal Reserve announced last week that it would keep interest rates where they are).…..

There are also some reasons to be wary of the results from the survey. The poll showed that Mr Biden has only a one-point lead against Mr Trump among voters between the ages of 18 and 29.

Similarly, 22 per cent of Black voters in those swing states said that they would support Mr Trump. The former president indeed did grow his support among Black voters, particularly Black men, in 2020, but earning a fifth of the the Black vote would be surprising…….

Why Democrats should (and shouldn’t) worry about Biden’s low poll numbers

Yes, it’s a year out. But his polling still shows bad signs for Democrats

www.independent.co.uk

History tells us there is a real incumbent advantage in presidential races. I'm not quick to kick the old man off the boat. However, if Biden's polling stays this god awful, and compounded with his age there needs to be a primary race. There are some people on this board who think Kamala would be fine, but her last presidential run suggest otherwise.

This is a valid topic, and we should all be concerned if these poll numbers don't improve. The scary thing is the economic numbers have been as good as you can expect.

 

[Virgil]

History tells us there is a real incumbent advantage in presidential races. I'm not quick to kick the old man off the boat. However, if Biden's polling stays this god awful, and compounded with his age there needs to be a primary race. There are some people on this board who think Kamala would be fine, but her last presidential run suggest otherwise.

This is a valid topic, and concern to have as this poll numbers don't improve. The scary thing is the economic numbers have been as good as you can expect.

Issue is Trump doesn't poll very well at all either. Neither man is polling well. Rember Trump's polls numbers in 2020?

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

This 9 minute video clip is interesting.
Once you get past the opening stuff about the polls, David Axelrod is interviewed.
He sure seems to be implying that President Biden should ay least consider NOT running. Hear it in Axelrod's own words to see what I mean...
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[J-DONK]

Issue is Trump doesn't poll very well at all either. Neither man is polling well. Rember Trump's polls numbers in 2020?

Trump probably doesn't end up running. The most likely scenario is Trump locks up the nomination, but can't run in the general.

 

[Optimus Prime]

One has signed historic climate and infrastructure legislation, steered the economy past a recession and rallied the west against Vladimir Putin. The other spent Monday on trial for fraud ranting and raving against a judge in a puerile display from the witness stand.

And if a presidential election were held today, Joe Biden would lose to Donald Trump by a lot, according to the latest swing state polls.

Maybe it’s the pandemic, or inflation, or tribalism, but it is increasingly hard to deny that something strange and perverse is happening in American politics.

Since Biden took office the US economy has added a record 14m jobs while his list of legislative accomplishments has earned some comparisons with those of Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson. Yet in a recent Gallup poll the 80-year-old’s overall approval rating was just 37%.

Trump, meanwhile, is facing 91 criminal indictments in Atlanta, Miami, New York and Washington DC, some of which relate to an attempted to overthrow the US government. Yet the 77-year-old is running away with a Republican primary election from which Mike Pence, the vice-president who opposed the coup, made an ignominious early exit.

On Monday Trump was in court for a New York civil business fraud case in which he has already been fined $15,000 for twice violating a limited gag order that prevents him from criticising court staff.

The case threatens to tear down the Trump Organisation, revealing that the emperor has no clothes. Voters do not seem to care. People in swing state voters say they trust Trump over Biden on the economy by a 22-point margin, 59% to 37%, according to this weekend’s poll from the New York Times and Siena College.

The same poll showed Trump beating Biden in five of the six most important battleground states exactly a year before the presidential election, although if Trump were to be convicted of criminal charges against him, some of his support would erode by about 6%.

Conventional wisdom used to hold that Trump’s myriad legal woes would help in the Republican primary and hurt him in the presidential election. Now even that no longer seems certain as Trump appears politically bulletproof and Democrats sweat over the disconnect between Biden’s record and his flagging numbers.

It seems no event or behavior in court hurts those dynamics. In the sober trappings of a Manhattan courtroom, Trump’s belligerent, boorish conduct was thrown into sharper relief than at his knockabout political rallies. Trump repeatedly clashed with Judge Arthur Engoron, prompting him to warn that he might remove the ex-president from the witness stand if he did not answer questions directly.

As if pleading with parents to discipline an unruly child, the judge entreated Trump’s lawyers: “I beseech you to control him if you can. If you can’t, I will. I will excuse him and draw every negative inference that I can.”……..

The emperor has no clothes. But were the election today, Trump would win

Despite a puerile display in court in the New York fraud case, Trump outpolls Biden, whose impressive record isn’t translating into support

www.theguardian.com

 

[UriUT]

Yeah I'm currently in the process of trying to get a new job which still will not get me back to where I was at the beginning of 2021 as far as how far the money goes.

The ‘great wealth transfer’ isn't $73 trillion but $129 trillion, Bank of America says—and the government gave most of it to baby boomers

Boom! Government policy has really enriched a certain generation of Americans—ones who have been in power for decades.

fortune.com

So biden's policy, IRA, chips, and infrastructure has real effects on the middle class. In addition, he advocates for unions to counterbalance the billionaires, with seemingly successes with the autoworker deals with Detroit's big three and others.

Now, I'm certain that you aren't attributing the adverse economic hardship many Americans, particularly millennials, feel on Biden.

A few snippets from the article

You’ve probably heard about the “great wealth transfer.” It’s the $72 trillion stack of assets that baby boomers are sitting on and going to pass onto millennials someday, thereby solving many of the economically beleaguered younger generation’s problems. But there was another, even more “massive” wealth transfer from the government to the baby boomers over the last 40 years, according to Bank of America Research.

This means that government policy has resulted in a $129 trillion wealth transfer into the pockets of those boomers and older Americans,

The obvious reason that the boomers hold such massive wealth is because of the low interest mortgages and real estate holdings, compared to the post pandemic high interest competitive market. And their education price tags was considerably cheaper, which didn't burden them with massive debts upon graduation.

In a 2021 memo to clients, billionaire (and boomer) Howard Marks wrote that the generation is so big that they’re still wielding enough political and financial power to advocate for a system that works for them, “Boomers have been and still are consuming more than their fair share of the pie. This will leave future generations saddled with substantial debt stemming from expenditures they didn’t benefit from proportionally,” he wrote.

They won't have to pay for the future costs of their policies: supply side economics that increases our debt monstrously and the environmental damages such as climate changes and pollution from less regulation.