SHOULD Biden run for a 2nd term? (1 Viewer)

[SteveSBrickNJ]

Biden has lost support from many people who voted for him in the past.
He is getting up there in age.
Here are a couple of sites I'd like to share...
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Octogenarian Biden begins new year facing age-old question on 2024 race

In the coming months, Biden faces a simple question: will he seek a second term at the end of which he would be 86?

www.theguardian.com

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Biden 2024? Most Democrats say no thank you: AP-NORC poll

A majority of Democrats now think one term is plenty for President Joe Biden, despite his insistence that he plans to seek reelection in 2024. While Biden has trumpeted his legislative victories and ability to govern, the poll suggests relatively few U.S. adults give him high marks on either...

news.yahoo.com

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WHAT DO ANY OF YOU THINK?
IS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY BEST SERVED BY HAVING PRESIDENT BIDEN RUN FOR ANOTHER TERM OR WOULD A DIFFERENT CANDIDATE BE BETTER?

 

[Virgil]

So now it’s your turn to read something into this that isn’t there. He is sharing how he reassures himself that the polls right now don’t really mean much. He is correct in his statement that Dems have been outperforming polls since 2018. Which is a nice way of saying the polls have been statistically significantly off since 2018. And we all know how wrong they were about the 2016 presidential race.

I’m curious - why do you call him a poser? Did you read the rest of the Twitter thread?

So you admit you read into things? My turn/your turn? Thank you.

 

[Virgil]

So now it’s your turn to read something into this that isn’t there. He is sharing how he reassures himself that the polls right now don’t really mean much. He is correct in his statement that Dems have been outperforming polls since 2018. Which is a nice way of saying the polls have been statistically significantly off since 2018. And we all know how wrong they were about the 2016 presidential race.

I’m curious - why do you call him a poser? Did you read the rest of the Twitter thread?

His ignorance and posing is that he completely ignores the people who pay for polls and those who conduct the polls are not saying any single poll is a prediction for later on in an election. We adults with intellects know any poll is just a snapshot in time. What are the polls used for? Not used for what the general public misunderstands them to be about (because of headlines and media selling sit), and what the posers claim they fail to do. Which polls were statistically off? What interpretations of the polls were off and by how much?

Your insinuations are those of an ignorant member of the general public, too lazy to learn and get into details. You seem to demand shirt be put forth as steak and potatoes.

and it sucks even more that we end up speaking about polls, when in reality this is just about the political horse race.

 

[MT15]

His ignorance and posing is that he completely ignores the people who pay for polls and those who conduct the polls are not saying any single poll is a prediction for later on in an election. We adults with intellects know any poll is just a snapshot in time. What are the polls used for? Not used for what the general public misunderstands them to be about (because of headlines and media selling sit), and what the posers claim they fail to do. Which polls were statistically off? What interpretations of the polls were off and by how much?

Your insinuations are those of an ignorant member of the general public, too lazy to learn and get into details. You seem to demand shirt be put forth as steak and potatoes.

and it sucks even more that we end up speaking about polls, when in reality this is just about the political horse race.

This seems to be making you pretty hostile. Can you share why stating the obvious - that polls have been struggling to predict elections in recent years - makes you so angry? Are you in the polling business maybe? If you are - you should know better than anyone the problems with polling recently. You shouldn’t take things so personally.

Did you read the rest of his comments? He’s not a “poser” and he’s not just someone who doesn’t know what he is talking about. I’m not a polling expert, but I do have a passable knowledge of statistics and have a scientific background. I don’t think I’m lazy either.

With all due respect you don’t know enough about me for your opinion to mean anything. It’s actually just pretty baffling that some fairly benign and obvious statements elicited such hostility. I can assure you it wasn’t my intent to make you mad.

 

[DaveXA]

With almost everyone who is paying attention, lol. Polls have always been subject to manipulation, but since the 2016 election I think everyone should take even polls that attempt to play it straight with a huge amount of skepticism. After all, they haven’t performed well in the interim since 2016 either. They missed numerous calls since 2016. Numerous referendums in states, mid-terms, etc.

Polling has a huge issue with getting representative samples now. They cannot easily sample a physical area due to the absence of land lines. Cell phones are mobile, and people do not generally answer a call from a number they don’t recognize anyway. I’m not aware that they have solved this issue. When your samples are not representative, your poll is garbage.

I cannot help it if people are over-valuing polls. There really isn’t a great alternative for forecasting that I’m aware of. I’m looking at results in various state and local elections since 2016. The polls aren’t doing a great job at reading the results ahead of time, IMO.

I don't think polls are as much predictive as they are more about taking temperature at a moment in time. I do think if the general election were this week, the outcome would be very much in doubt. But like I stated earlier, let's see where we are in 6 months.

 

[bdb13]

@MT15 It's a fair point about the accuracy of the polls.. I don't believe they're absolutely predictive or right on the money accurate or anything.. but I don't dismiss them either and like I said in response to Dave, in a situation where the economy could very well take a turn for the worse between now and election day, I think that the polls show that Biden probably is not in an outstanding position currently and that there's potential for his standing to get worse from here in addition to the potential for it to get better.

Last election was so close in the battleground states it's all really so tenuous and different imo than how It ultimately was for Obama in 2012 where he wasn't having to defend multiple states at such close margins.

 

[Taurus]

@MT15 It's a fair point about the accuracy of the polls.. I don't believe they're absolutely predictive or right on the money accurate or anything.. but I don't dismiss them either and like I said in response to Dave, in a situation where the economy could very well take a turn for the worse between now and election day, I think that the polls show that Biden probably is not in an outstanding position currently and that there's potential for his standing to get worse from here in addition to the potential for it to get better.

Last election was so close in the battleground states it's all really so tenuous and different imo than how It ultimately was for Obama in 2012 where he wasn't having to defend multiple states at such close margins.

I'd be interested to correlate these polls in battleground states with Fox News viewership. Where are these voters getting their information? By just about any metric you'd care to name, over which a President holds significant influence, Biden is doing great. Not just good, but way better than we had any right to expect.

So why isn't this turning into a massive advantage in the polls?

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

there is a guy at work that says he can't retire yet because Biden has his 401k is down so much. am i wrong that the stock market is higher now than when he took office?

 

[MT15]

@MT15 It's a fair point about the accuracy of the polls.. I don't believe they're absolutely predictive or right on the money accurate or anything.. but I don't dismiss them either and like I said in response to Dave, in a situation where the economy could very well take a turn for the worse between now and election day, I think that the polls show that Biden probably is not in an outstanding position currently and that there's potential for his standing to get worse from here in addition to the potential for it to get better.

Last election was so close in the battleground states it's all really so tenuous and different imo than how It ultimately was for Obama in 2012 where he wasn't having to defend multiple states at such close margins.

I never said to outright dismiss them, at least I didn’t mean to say that. It is fair, however, to point out that the polls have consistently underestimated democratic performance since 2018. Consistently. It has happened in more than one state, as well as the midterms. It started with the abortion referendum in Nebraska, or at least that was where I first noticed it. And it has continued. There is something off about polling these days. In my opinion, they don’t have a good method to get representative samples of younger voters and/or minority voters and/or women.

I saw state polls in GA where the female representation in the poll was about 48-49% whereas the voting population in GA consistently runs about 55% female. (these numbers are from memory - I’d have to look them up). That would seem to skew the poll, at least to me, if you are trying to get a feel for the voting population of GA.

I’m not saying all polls are bad, just that there are quite a few out there that shouldn’t be considered seriously. And when you add in how early it is, that just increases the noise in these polls. Like I said, at this point in the election cycle for Obama, he was considered toast. Almost certain to lose.

So I don’t think anyone should panic because of polling right now. That’s all I was saying. It wouldn’t be a good idea to toss Biden aside because polls look bad right now. And I have seen national pundits suggesting that Democrats should make a move now. I mean, if people aren’t happy with the job Biden is doing, I just don’t understand what it would take to make them happy.

 

[DaveXA]

I never said to outright dismiss them, at least I didn’t mean to say that. It is fair, however, to point out that the polls have consistently underestimated democratic performance since 2018. Consistently. It has happened in more than one state, as well as the midterms. It started with the abortion referendum in Nebraska, or at least that was where I first noticed it. And it has continued. There is something off about polling these days. In my opinion, they don’t have a good method to get representative samples of younger voters and/or minority voters and/or women.

I saw state polls in GA where the female representation in the poll was about 48-49% whereas the voting population in GA consistently runs about 55% female. (these numbers are from memory - I’d have to look them up). That would seem to skew the poll, at least to me, if you are trying to get a feel for the voting population of GA.

I’m not saying all polls are bad, just that there are quite a few out there that shouldn’t be considered seriously. And when you add in how early it is, that just increases the noise in these polls. Like I said, at this point in the election cycle for Obama, he was considered toast. Almost certain to lose.

So I don’t think anyone should panic because of polling right now. That’s all I was saying. It wouldn’t be a good idea to toss Biden aside because polls look bad right now. And I have seen national pundits suggesting that Democrats should make a move now. I mean, if people aren’t happy with the job Biden is doing, I just don’t understand what it would take to make them happy.

Better poll numbers would make them happy.

 

[bdb13]

Yeah, wasn't trying to imply you were outright dismissing them and agree there have been good signs for Democrats in contests that have been held.

I went back and looked at Real Clear Politics back at the same point in the 2012 cycle and I'd have to look at the state polling to really get into the nitty gritty of it but it doesn't really look like the national polls were saying Obama was toast to me:

 

[MT15]

there is a guy at work that says he can't retire yet because Biden has his 401k is down so much. am i wrong that the stock market is higher now than when he took office?

That could very well be. Let me look it up:

The Dow closed at 30,606 on Dec. 31, 2020. Jan. 20, 2021 it closed at 31,188. Dec. 31, 2021 it closed at 36,338 (!) and it now sits at 34,061.

Human nature being what it is - he probably remembers the high of 2021, and it hasn’t returned to that figure yet. But yeah, the Dow is higher now than when Biden took office.

 

[MT15]

Yeah, wasn't trying to imply you were outright dismissing them and agree there have been good signs for Democrats in contests that have been held.

I went back and looked at Real Clear Politics back at the same point in the 2012 cycle and I'd have to look at the state polling to really get into the nitty gritty of it but it doesn't really look like the national polls were saying Obama was toast to me:

Hmmm. I do remember a lot of doom and gloom about Obama being re-elected though.

 

[bdb13]

Hmmm. I do remember a lot of doom and gloom about Obama being re-elected though.

I personally remember concern but not necessarily doom and gloom and a lot of false bravado regarding the odds by Republicans themselves.

 

[MT15]

I remember at least one op-Ed’s about how Obama had no chance and should step aside.

Lol, just saw this in my Twitter feed:

 

[Virgil]

Nice - do you always assign a diagnosis like this the first time you interact with someone?

In your post below: first - I am not sure what your point is because I cannot make sense out of your bolded part. And you seem to say you have knowledge of a group that I identify with. I am just seeing your posts today. If you want to know about my beliefs, just ask, I will be happy to share. But you can imagine my amusement at you telling me you know what group I identify with and then not bothering to even ask if you are correct or identify the group to which you have assigned me.

Are you melting? Apologies if so.

 

[MT15]

Are you melting? Apologies if so.

What in the world about my calm responses would lead you to say this? I’m not the one having the hissy fit. The unwillingness to actually engage forthrightly and the propensity to throw around epithets is certainly not promising.

Could you explain your statement I bolded because it makes zero sense?

 

[MT15]

I personally remember concern but not necessarily doom and gloom and a lot of false bravado regarding the odds by Republicans themselves.

I did find this. It seems to parallel today’s worries about Biden pretty well. Unfortunately the other piece I found was paywalled, calling for Obama to step aside and let someone else run. It was from the Chicago Tribune.

Harvard poll predicts Obama loss — Harvard Gazette

A new national poll of America’s 18- to 29-year-olds by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at the Harvard Kennedy School finds more millennials predict President Barack Obama will lose his bid for re-election (36 percent) than win (30 percent).

news.harvard.edu

Maybe the poll collapse for Biden was earlier? This Pew report from the summer talks about it. It seems to me that the doom and gloom I remember has to do with Obama having positive approval ratings and a double digit lead over likely R opponents until fall, when it evaporated, and we see the poll results that you found, which indicate a dead heat, basically.

Obama Loses Ground in 2012 Reelection Bid

Overview The sizeable lead Barack Obama held over a generic Republican opponent in polls conducted earlier this year has vanished as his support among

www.pewresearch.org

 

[MT15]

This seems to fit here, because it makes a case for why people feel that Biden isn’t doing a good job with the economy, even though all metrics seem to point otherwise.