RFK's campaign (will run as independent/third-party) (4 Viewers)

[samiam5211]

It looks like he's going to be on the ticket in November. I think he should get his own thread. He's about to become well funded, and it's going to be a professionally run campaign no doubt. I don't think it's out of the question that he get's Perot like numbers, and even if he get's 1/4 of that it could be a disaster for the Biden campaign that is probably looking at a few thousand votes in a few states turning the election anyway.

There is going to be money behind this campaign from all sorts of angles. No matter what anyone thinks about RFK, it would be a terrible mistake to not take this campaign seriously. He might take some from Trump for sure, but he's going to take more of the anti Trump vote from Biden, and Biden can't really spare any votes. Not all people who were going to vote for Biden would disagree with the things RFK has said about vaccines, and he's not going to be spending his time campaigning on just vaccine skepticism.

There are many more people voting for Biden who aren't enthusiastic about Biden than there are on the other side.

MSN

Asuper PAC supporting Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has begun polling his support as an Independent, one of the strongest indications to date that the long-shot Democrat is set to announce a party affiliation switch.

The poll, conducted by the firm John Zogby Strategies and commissioned by the American Values 2024 PAC, comes amid growing speculation — fueled by Kennedy himself — that he will leave the Democratic Party in the upcoming weeks.

 

[MT15]

Looks like Trump will be getting another cease and desist letter. They played “My Hero” as RFK Jr’s walk on music. I hope they sue him.

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

The difference it made was Biden dropped out. Do you think Harris or Trump will drop out after they debate?


Water is wet.


False statement, wish casting, wish casting, and more wish casting. Trump supporters are desperately doing a lot of that these days.


That's certainly your opinion.

No I don't think anyone will drop out.
Yes it's my opinion that the Sept. 10th debate will make a bigger difference than RFK dropping out.
If anyone on this forum has a spine, they'll quote me and agree.

 

[LA - L.A.]

If anyone on this forum has a spine, they'll quote me and agree.

Oh really now!?! Someone's a thirsty grouch.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Looks like Trump will be getting another cease and desist letter. They played “My Hero” as RFK Jr’s walk on music. I hope they sue him.

They just need to stick to Kid Rock and Lee Greenwood.

 

[fooferdoggie]

Looks like Trump will be getting another cease and desist letter. They played “My Hero” as RFK Jr’s walk on music. I hope they sue him.

the man literally will pay for nothing such a forking thief.

 

[MT15]

Harris’ judgment so far is perfect, lol.

 

[LA - L.A.]

the man literally will pay for nothing such a forking thief.

There's a bill a-comin' that Trump's definitely gonna be pay'in.

 

[Optimus Prime]

They just need to stick to Kid Rock and Lee Greenwood.

Don’t forget Ted Nugent

 

[Lapaz]

Much of America was clueless about Biden....then they watched the debate and it made a difference.
Kamala Harris is very very good at performing a speech that someone else wrote.
This is not sarcasm. I really think she does extremely well.
Yet how will she do in the same debate scenario that Biden failed in?
Surely she'll do better than Biden, yet thus far she hasn't sat down for a lengthy interview or had a press conference where all segments of the media are called upon to ask questions.
So....
People will watch the Trump-Harris debate on September 10th.
IF, IF , if Harris can't answer in a satisfying manner about her flip flop position changes....or the border...or the economy...it COULD cost her some votes.
Yet the same can be said for Trump. If he is "cornered" regarding January 6th or Trump says "they stole the 2020 election from me" then Trump could come away from the debate with less support.
These are unusual times and the "historically" based point of view might not matter on Sept. 10th.

Meh. I hear pundits saying Kamala has to answer things, but Trump doesn’t answer things. Biden came off as impaired and seemed to be in decline. Trump was also a mess, but he got off the hook due to Biden’s frail performance. Trump won’t get that benefit in the next debate. Kamala May not answer everything great, but it’s a guarantee that Trump will lie far more and answer even worse. The best Trump will get is a draw from the debate. More likely he’ll perform like he did in the last debate, but this time the focus will be on his inept performance.

 

[Lapaz]

So I've been reading a bit. I was more worried about this b/c I originally thought he still had around 9%, but my understanding is now has since dropped to 4%. And according to a recent poll, w/ RFK not in the race his supporters are roughly split 55% Trump leaning to 45% Harris leaning. So through the magic of the internets, RFK's endorsement is calculated to be less than 1% point gain for trump. (I forget the exact number, but it was less than 1% )

The NYT just wrote essentially the same thing. Trump may gain 1%, but Kamala may get a bump from the convention, so it will probably not change the margin for Trump. Here is an excerpt from the NYT article:

“In the most recent Times/Siena polls of seven key battleground states, if all Kennedy supporters who identified as Republicans, leaned toward the Republican Party or did not lean toward either party moved to support Mr. Trump, he would gain, on average, 1 percentage point. On average, Ms. Harris held a slim 2 percentage point lead in those polls, with or without Mr. Kennedy.

To be sure, some of these states’ outcomes could be decided by mere thousands of votes, as they were in 2020. But with Mr. Kennedy’s prominence already having waned, and fewer of his supporters likely to say they’ll vote, his decision to leave the stage may not change the state of the race significantly.”

 

[MT15]

I don’t think the margins will be as thin this year as in 2016 or 2020, but that’s just my opinion. I don’t think polls have captured the women who are going to vote in a big way to get rid of Trump, and now that the nominee is Harris - for our first woman president. This is seen by new voter registrations being very lopsided toward women voters, which the polls cannot capture as they are new voters. If men would also get behind Harris (Trump still has a lead with men - it’s one of the few demos he actually leads), then we are talking a landslide.

 

[Dragon]

I think the fact that so many "old republicans" are beginning to speak up is going to make others think again about voting Trump (or even republican down ballot).. Several of my old friends in TN are making that move - including men - especially after the last few days. The fact that so many previously elected republicans have come out in support of Harris, is somehow making it more "legit" for them to do so too. I have kept regular contact with many of my old friends from UT and even though a few are Trumpers most have mostly been frustrated by the chaos but had remained loyal republicans - until now that is...

 

[LA - L.A.]

I don’t think the margins will be as thin this year as in 2016 or 2020, but that’s just my opinion. I don’t think polls have captured the women who are going to vote in a big way to get rid of Trump, and now that the nominee is Harris - for our first woman president. This is seen by new voter registrations being very lopsided toward women voters, which the polls cannot capture as they are new voters. If men would also get behind Harris (Trump still has a lead with men - it’s one of the few demos he actually leads), then we are talking a landslide.

There's also been a surge in voter registration by younger voters, which the polls also don't represent accurately.

 

[LA - L.A.]

I think the fact that so many "old republicans" are beginning to speak up is going to make others think again about voting Trump (or even republican down ballot).. Several of my old friends in TN are making that move - including men - especially after the last few days. The fact that so many previously elected republicans have come out in support of Harris, is somehow making it more "legit" for them to do so too. I have kept regular contact with many of my old friends from UT and even though a few are Trumpers most have mostly been frustrated by the chaos but had remained loyal republicans - until now that is...

Peer pressure and peer permission are very powerful influences. I think Trump and any very vocally pro-Trump down ballot Republicans are in a lot more trouble than they know or they would ever admit to.

I think the voters are about to onside kick the second half kickoff on Republicans.

 

[Lapaz]

I don’t think the margins will be as thin this year as in 2016 or 2020, but that’s just my opinion. I don’t think polls have captured the women who are going to vote in a big way to get rid of Trump, and now that the nominee is Harris - for our first woman president. This is seen by new voter registrations being very lopsided toward women voters, which the polls cannot capture as they are new voters. If men would also get behind Harris (Trump still has a lead with men - it’s one of the few demos he actually leads), then we are talking a landslide.

I haven’t heard anyone mention that abortion will be huge because Thomas and Alito may retire under a Trump administration to cement abortion restrictions, because this Supreme Court will probably uphold the Comstock Act which will effectively ban abortion nationally.

Anti-Abortion Extremists Want to Use the 150-Year-Old Comstock Act to Ban Abortion Nationwide | ACLU

The dangerous legal theory endorsed by one of Trump's top anti-abortion strategists

www.aclu.org

 

[GrandAdmiral]

So has Shanahan come out in support of Trump? I know she support Jr.'s decision to step aside, but did she endorse him as well?

 

[LA - L.A.]

An interesting consideration is that RFK Jr. endorsing Trump might actually hurt Trump overall, because Trump has endorsed not giving money to public schools who require vaccinations and RFK Jr. is notoriously against vaccines.

Only a small percentage of people who typically vote are against vaccines, while over 70% of people who typically vote are staunchly pro-vaccine, especially the majority of women with children.

RFJ Jr's endorsement could send voters away from Trump to vote for a third party, to write in, or to not voting at all.

Brownstein: Why RFK Jr could be a problem for Trump | CNN Politics

CNN’s Senior Political Analyst Ronald Brownstein says Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of former President Donald Trump could be more of a ‘problem than an asset’.

www.cnn.com

 

[SteveSBrickNJ]

Meh. I hear pundits saying Kamala has to answer things, but Trump doesn’t answer things. Biden came off as impaired and seemed to be in decline. Trump was also a mess, but he got off the hook due to Biden’s frail performance. Trump won’t get that benefit in the next debate. Kamala May not answer everything great, but it’s a guarantee that Trump will lie far more and answer even worse. The best Trump will get is a draw from the debate. More likely he’ll perform like he did in the last debate, but this time the focus will be on his inept performance.

That's VERY possible. It will be whatever it will be. Yet one thing is for sure....the debate will be far more significant than RFK dropping out. By Monday RFK will already be forgotten.